Roto Riteup: August 18, 2016
Dansby Swanson made his major-league debut on Wednesday, hitting a pair of singles to ingratiate himself to the Braves faithful. Even more endearing a start than his two hits, though? Using the Ludacris classic Georgia as his walk-up music. That’s good representing. Field Mob forever. I’m still skeptical about his short-term fantasy value, but that’s a good way to win a fan.
On the agenda:
1. Team pitch-type values
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options
Team pitch-type values
One thing I’ll sometimes look at when deciding between a couple of starting options is how their opponents fare against their arsenal. It’s a pretty inexact science – all pitches aren’t created equally, samples are somewhat small and subject to lineup iterations, and there’s probably a fair amount of noise in performance against pitches at the team and individual-season level. It’s more a curiosity (or, in some cases, a rough tiebreaker), but it’s a fun exercise. So, for example, you can pick on the Angels, but you appear to be better off doing that with a pitcher who relies heavily on the changeup rather than one who throws the curve more often.
For your own curiosity, here are the five worst offenses against certain pitch types, by PITCHf/x Pitch Value/100.
Fastball (36.2% of all pitches)
Mets (-0.48)
Reds (-0.43)
Braves (-0.30)
Brewers (-0.23)
Padres (-0.23)
Best: Red Sox (+0.75)
Slider (15.3%)
Braves (-2.19)
Pirates (-1.68)
Rangers (-1.33)
Padres (-1.23)
Athletics (-1.17)
Best: Indians (+0.76)
Two-Seam (13.7%)
Yankees (-0.99)
Braves (-0.95)
Astros (-0.62)
Padres (-0.43)
White Sox (-0.40)
Best: Orioles (+1.18)
Changeup (10.2%)
Angels (-1.40)
Phillies (-1.02)
Athletics (-0.65)
Giants (-0.57)
Reds (-0.55)
Best: Red Sox (+1.20)
Curveball (8.5%)
Phillies (-1.09)
Brewers (-0.90)
Braves (-0.88)
Nationals (-0.53)
Royals (-0.44)
Best: Angels (+0.89)
Sinker (6.6%)
Athletics (-1.53)
Braves (-1.17)
Padres (-0.86)
Mariners (-0.74)
Dodgers (-0.73)
Best: Cubs (+1.45)
Various News and Notes
Zack Wheeler has been shut down ahead of a PRP injection that will keep him from throwing for two more weeks. Apparently, his ligament is mostly fine and he’s dealing with a “mild” flexor strain, but pushing the timeline back any amount when a player’s been on the shelf since 2014 is probably disappointing. Theoretically, Wheeler can be on your radar for 2017, but it’s impossible to know what to expect after such an absence.
The Red Sox would apparently welcome Jonathan Papelbon back. Cool, good luck with that.
Jayson Werth reached base for a 45th consecutive game, one shy of matching Rusty Staub’s kind-of-franchise record. A streak doesn’t necessarily help your fantasy squad, but Werth has posted a .846 OPS during the stretch, hitting six home runs. He’s not 2007-2014 Werth any longer, but a nice rebound season has his wRC+ back above average at 109. Not bad at age 37.
The Rockies lit Stephen Strasburg up for his worst start of the season, catching him for nine runs in 1.2 innings. His ERA now stands at a career-worst 3.59, a laughable career worst and one that you’d expect to come back down from here considering he’s still striking out 30.4 percent of batters.
Speaking of Cy Young candidates past and present, J.A. Happ won his 17th game to go with a 3.05 ERA. Josh Donaldson left that game with a jammed thumb and some cologne-inspired issues with his manager, but he’s hoping he’ll be back in the lineup Friday.
Colin Rea is going the route of Garrett Richards and trying to avoid Tommy John surgery. Instead, he’ll get a PRP injection and then begin a throwing program after a few weeks of rest. I’m sure the Marlins won’t be any happier about the weird trade mix-up even if Rea’s ready to go to start the 2017 season, but it could be a nice relief for Rea and the Padres if it works out.
Sticking with strangeness, Tommy La Stella finally reported to the minors some 19 days after he was assigned there. It’s hard to judge without knowing the player and situation more intimately, but respect to La Stella for doing what he felt was best for himself, if it was that and not just a tantrum after being optioned with a 128 wRC+. He should be back on the major-league radar at some point, though playing time may not be abundant.
Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers or play DFS, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Archie Bradley @ SD (Paul Clemens)
Archie Bradley’s been plagued by control issues once again in 2016, something he wasn’t able to figure out even on assignment to Triple-A. At this point, he just looks like a high-walk arm, and while there’s decent strikeout potential lurking, it means you’ll need to pick your spots carefully. The Phillies are such a spot, with one of the worst wRC+ marks no matter the time frame you use for the season, plus an above-average strikeout rate.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Jose Berrios @KC (Edinson Volquez)
We’re taking a bit of a swing for the fences with the 13-percent owned rookie here, considering he’s the owner of a 9.32 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. Jose Berrios didn’t even make it past two innings his last time out, and he only has one good start in three tries since returning from the minors. So why the optimism, other than a thinner streaming day? Well, the Royals are bad, for one – they own by far the worst offense in baseball over the last month and have been mediocre against righties all year. For another, Berrios has some nice strikeout potential and has flashed a few encouraging signs despite the surface stats.
Blake Murphy is a freelance sportswriter based out of Toronto. Formerly of the Score, he's the managing editor at Raptors Republic and frequently pops up at Sportsnet, Vice, and around here. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.
First of all: the Ludacris walk up music (?): “good way to win a fan”? If you’re of a certain age, I guess. But for this old fart to hear that Ray Charles classic butchered by a rap group, no way. Don’t like walk up music hurting my ear drums in any stadium; that’s why I prefer going to Camden Yards over Nationals Park—the Orioles don’t have any walk up music. (I’ll concede that Bryce Harper does have some nice Frank Sinatra tunes and I like Jayson Werth’s Werewolves of London, just not at that decibel level.) But the “stadium experience” is generally for younger people.
Love that list of pitch types and how some teams fare against them! I didn’t know that list existed, now I’ve bookmarked it. It’s clear now why some teams like the Braves, Padres and A’s have such terrible offenses: they can’t hit just about any pitch! I expected to see the Orioles on one of the breaking balls lists; they seem to have a lot of trouble with those types of pitches.
And streaming options: two for two! Well, almost. If Kyle Gibson had left the game earlier, it would’ve been a great effort (except for the lack of Ks, as usual). Unfortunately, most streaming options (including today’s) are closed to those of us who play in deep leagues that are also keeper leagues. But once in a while you come up with some suggestions that even we can use.
The O’s don’t have walk up music? How have I missed that? Either way, Camden is a great park, and I definitely enjoyed going there more than Nationals park, not much beats out Eutaw Street’s HR placards. Lots of greats have markers all over that part of the park.
Things may have changed in a year. I only go when it’s cool because of my neuropathy (I don’t sweat) and the last game I attended was an unusually cool night in early July 2015. Rangers vs. Orioles. And the last game I attended before that was in 2010—no walk up music then either. Maybe I caught unusual nights but that would have to be a hell of a coincidence.
To be fair to the Nationals management, they do have “senior nights” at Nationals Park. which means they tone down everything, but they’re usually in the dead of summer so it’s not something I can do. And yeah, even though I’m a long time Orioles fan but live much closer to Washington D.C., Camden Yards is still one of the most beautiful and intimate major league baseball parks. Nationals Park is so vanilla—what a shame the nation’s capital didn’t hire architects with a little more imagination to build the publicly financed stadium.