Projections-Fueled Top 60 Prospects, Midseason Update

We’re getting close to 50% completion of the 2024 season, so I thought the time was right for a midseason update to my projections-based prospect ranks. You can find more methodological detail, along with the preseason lists here (bats) and here (arms).

The peak projections for arms and bats are based on historical performance in recent years across the minors and majors. They account for aging, league difficulty, league scoring environment, park effects, recency, and regression. Aging curves are leveraged to show how a prospect projects at their peak. The projections assume a neutral American League park in 2024. The projections do not capture everything: they ignore, for instance, defense, scouting reports, position, or high school, college, or foreign league performance. They also ignore Statcast data, for now.

The projections ignore these factors for convenience, not because they are unimportant–you should still account for them in your analyses. In particular, I’d like to add xwOBA, barrel rate, and swing speed into the hitter projections, and StuffPlus or velocity into the pitcher projections (my projections at The Athletic do account for Stuff+), as all of these variables have a demonstrated track record of predictive power. The projections have a good track record of forecast accuracy. In my internal checks, they have performed at least comparably to other popular FanGraphs projection systems in terms of accuracy in projecting the 2024 rookie class to date.

First, the top 30 prospect bats by peak projected MLB wRC+ (updated through the games of 6/13) are pictured below. They are ranked by wRC+ as a comprehensive measure of hitting skill. I also show peak projections for other statistics to give readers an idea of how they might project for fantasy purposes.

Lazaro Montes has been skyrocketing up industry lists with his domination of the California League; he checks the boxes as the game’s next uber prospect. The rest of the top ten consists of names that have made good on considerable hype entering the year, including Caminero and Basallo. In the preseason, Ballesteros was the most surprising name in the top ten for me, although perhaps he should not have been so surprising, given he made the FanGraphs Top 100 as well. He has exceeded any reasonable expectation in 2024, with a 154 wRC+ while being one of the youngest hitters in Double-A (note, he just received a promotion to Triple-A).

The rest of the top 30 consists of a mix of highly ranked names entering the year, as well as a smattering of 2024’s biggest breakouts: Luke Keaschall, Michael Arroyo, Tre’ Morgan, C.J. Kayfus, Kevin McGonigle, Josue Briceño, Ralphy Velazquez, Ben Rice, and Jeral Perez. 13 of the top 15 names were featured on the more scouting-based FanGraphs preseason top 100, an affirming source of triangulation.

Next, the top 30 prospect arms by peak projected MLB ERA (updated through the games of 6/13) are pictured below. The projections assume a pitcher faces 20 batters per game, to place pitchers on the same scale, and give pitchers who go deeper into games a bonus (and vice-versa).

Even ignoring aging, my current (as opposed to peak) projection for Skenes was more bullish than any other popular system before he debuted. He has rewarded their faith and now projects as the second-best pitcher in the game at peak, behind only (healthy) Jacob deGrom. Wilkinson has been lights out across the lower minors, with a 2.35 xFIP in High-A and a 1.51 xFIP in Class A. He lacks premium velocity, however, with a fastball typically sitting 90-91 MPH, so my projections are probably somewhat too bullish on him. He deserves to be taken seriously as a prospect regardless.

Despite a good peak projection stemming from a strong track record, DL Hall has battled velocity concerns as a starter. His ability to stick as a starter is up in the air, and looking less plausible relative to in the preseason. Sean Sullivan was dominant in the ACC in college and has continued to dominate professional hitters. He looks like the best Rockies pitching prospect in a long time–Dollander notwithstanding–although it is admittedly not the highest bar. Roupp and Festa both have strong stuff (per Stuff+, for instance) and would look even better in a version of these projections that captures stuff (Roupp has been out since late May with an undisclosed injury, however, which feels ominous).

Five of the top 10 names were featured on the FanGraphs preseason top 100. A projections-based approach seems to lead to more divergence from traditional lists with arms than with bats, but both approaches converge on the tippy-top-tier names to a solid extent.