Potential BB% Regressers
In the last of my posts trying to translate my look at the predictability of pitchers’ spring peripherals into actionable advice, I examine those pitchers whose walk rates were much higher than their Steamer projections for the regular season. These are the guys there might be some cause for concern, as opposed to the potential BB% improvers, whose spring hint at a potential step forward with their control.
As a reminder, this list should not be taken as gospel (none of them should of course, but this one especially), because walk rate can be very much affected by a pitcher experimenting with new pitches or simply working on improving a particular pitch. There are enough outside factors and small sample sizeness that you should not make any rash decisions based on this list, but rather keep the information in the back of your mind. Maybe use it as a tie-breaker if you haven’t drafted yet or are mulling a trade.
| Player | IP | TBF | BB | Spring BB% | Steamer BB% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker, Jarrod | 11.0 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 9.9% | 15.6% |
| Zambrano, Carlos | 21.2 | 104 | 21 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Minor, Mike | 24.0 | 97 | 14 | 14.4% | 8.4% | 6.0% |
| Marquis, Jason | 12.2 | 66 | 9 | 13.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% |
| Darvish, Yu | 15.0 | 63 | 8 | 12.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% |
| Karstens, Jeff | 17.0 | 70 | 8 | 11.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% |
| Below, Duane | 15.2 | 76 | 10 | 13.2% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| Bard, Daniel | 24.2 | 110 | 16 | 14.5% | 10.1% | 4.5% |
| Beckett, Josh | 19.0 | 71 | 8 | 11.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Rodriguez, Wandy | 21.0 | 99 | 12 | 12.1% | 7.9% | 4.2% |
Jarrod Parker– For a young pitcher, poor control during spring training probably means more than for a veteran, so this showing assured that Parker was ticketed to Triple-A to start the year. I still don’t really understand the prospect love for him, as his minor league skills have only been pretty good, but not great. I am sure the TJ surgery affected his peripherals last year, but even in Double-A in 2009 he was nothing special. Maybe he’s one of those whose stuff scouts love and it will eventually translate into stronger strikeout rates. He has been an extreme ground ball pitcher in the minors, so that is certainly a plus.
Carlos Zambrano– Although reports tell us that his velocity is up and he is in better shape, the terrible control gives us pause. I have never been a Zambrano fan to begin with, but with the improved velocity, I at least entertained the thought that he can generate some mixed league value. But the walks have all but squashed that idea.
Mike Minor– One of those annual sleepers on every sleeper list, Minor has not done anything to increase his sleeper appeal over the spring (unless of course you’re just looking at his 2.25 ERA). Minor has shown solid control throughout his career, but as a fly ball pitcher, a decline here could really hurt his performance as those solo homers become multi-run shots. I still like him though and would be willing to overlook the poor control in the spring.
Yu Darvish- I think we all pretty much know that Darvish is going to post a strong strikeout rate. What we cannot be sure of is how his control will translate and his spring provides some reason for concern. Everyone loves making the comparison to Daisuke Matsuzaka. He displayed excellent control in Japan, only to see that command disappear upon his move to the states. While most agree that Darvish has better control than Dice-K, we cannot be sure how much worse it will actually be (he obviously won’t be posting sub-2.0 BB/9 rates here like he did overseas). So once again, Darvish remains a medium risk, high reward pitcher whose risk may have increased ever so slightly given his spring.
Daniel Bard– I am tired of talking/writing about him because no one really knows how he will perform as a starter. Yes, his spring performance as one has been pretty terrible, but until the games count, I will refuse to admit defeat! Starters have much lower walk rates than relievers, so we normally would have expected Bard to see his walk rate improve upon his move to the rotation. Of course, his spring is making me doubt this.
Josh Beckett– Velocity is down the last time I read and he is dealing with a thumb issue as well. Is he ever completely healthy? Since he should be ready for his first start, it may be nothing, but it could have affected his spring control. If he struggles early on, don’t be surprised if he is DL’ed because that thumb injury is worse than originally let on.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
You wrote: “Starters have much lower walk rates than relievers, so we normally would have expected Bard to see his walk rate improve upon his move to the rotation.” Is the second half of that statement correct? Maybe starters have lower walk rates because they are better pitchers and pitching for short stints doesn’t help one to improve his walk rate.
In Tom Tango’s oft-cited Rule of 17 post at http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/starter_v_relief_1953_2008/, he says that the average change in the walk rate is flat when a reliever becomes a starter.
I was going by the league stats on FanGraphs. Starters last year average a 2.85 BB/9, while relievers a 3.63 mark. Since relievers throw harder and air it out given that they don’t need to pace themselves, it makes sense they’d have the higher K/9 and BB/9. I’m not sure why this would be different for starters who had been relievers previously.
From 96-09, John Smoltz had consistent walk rates of around 5.5-6.0%. But in his 4 years as a reliever, his walk rates were 3.3, 4.0, 4.2 (and a 7.6 as well.) He appears to have had more control as a reliever. Derek Lowe’s career numbers show a better walk rate as a reliever as well. Joba Chamberlain failed as a starter, went back to relief, and improved both his strikeout and walk rate.
But Alexi Ogando cut his walk rate from 9.4% as a reliever in 2010 to 6.2% as a starter in 2011. Carlos Villanueva has spent 6 seasons as a mediocre starter/long reliever, and he has 14.5% K/7.2% BB as a starter, and 23.7/8.7 as a reliever.
If there was an easy way to find players with a decent amount of time in both roles, it’d be interesting to see how their numbers compare.
Matt: that’s the work I did. And, for pitchers who have pitched both as starters and relievers, overall as a group, their walk rates are the same. Please see the link provided above.
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On the other hand, if you simply are comparing ALL SP to RP, then all you are doing is comparing two distinct pool of pitchers. Not only that, but those two pools of pitchers, that have limited overlap, are pitching under different conditions. I don’t know what kind of conclusions you want to be able to draw from that.
When you want to study things, you want to control for as many things as you can, EXCEPT for the one thing you are interested in. And, the #1 thing to control for is to ensure that your pool of pitchers in the two groups are identical.
I just followed the link, and unfortunately the link to the data used to produce it no longer works. Reading the comments, I see you say ‘I only looked at pitchers who had at most 20% of their PA as starters.’ That seems like you’re going to exclude a lot of pitchers who changed permanently, and only use those who started occasionally. To pick two of the names I used before, John Smoltz had 78% of his PA as a starter, and Carlos Villanueva, who is far from a regular starter, has still had over 40% of his PA come as a starter. I may be misinterpreting something in the link, since I can’t see the raw data, but that seems to me like you’ll get far from reliable results due to the selection criteria ignoring a lot of relevant players.
Again, I don’t have easy access to data without trying to build my own, but I think it would make more sense to simply look at those who topped a minimum number of PA in both roles.
And 78% for Smoltz above is very wrong, I didn’t notice the fangraphs splits only go back to 2002. It’s actually over 90% of PAs as a starter, but there are still nearly 4 full seasons as a closer.