Johnson Traded for Hill and McDonald: Fantasy Implications
What to expect from Kelly Johnson in Toronto – Kelly has been a disappointment this season, mainly for his inability to make contact (27.4 K% vice a career 20.9 K%) and get a hit (0.257 BABIP vice a career 0.309 BABIP). He has been a nice source of home runs (18) and stolen bases (13) though.
Johnson’s home run ability should not take much of a hit since the LHH park factor for home runs is the same for each park (114). In Toronto, the park factors for singles, doubles and triples are all less than they were in Arizona. Rogers Centre will put another dent in Johnson already beat up season AVG.
I am not sure of Toronto’s plan for where he bats in the lineup so his value could be effected on where he finally ends up. He should see some more Runs + RBIs since Toronto’s offense averages 0.3 R/G more than Arizona’s offense. Finally in Toronto, he should be in the field everyday (which wasn’t happening recently in Arizona).
I see Johnson’s Runs and RBI’s up, HRs staying the same, while his AVG might even take more of hit because of the trade.
What to expect from Aaron Hill in Arizona – Hill, like Johnson, has had a disappointing 2011 season. A 0.225 AVG and 6 HRs are a let down from the 0.286 AVG and 36 HRs from just 2 years ago.
Looking at the stadium numbers, Hill’s home run potential will go down as he goes from a RHH HR PF of 116 in Toronto to 102 in Arizona. While his HR rate looks to take a hit, he should get a boost in his AVG because of the higher PF for singles, doubles and triples.
The chances for RBI’s and Runs will go down since Arizona doesn’t score as many runs as the Toronto offense.
Hill looks like he should get a chance to turn it around in Arizona, but the home park and his teammates look to limit his upside.
What to expect to from John McDonald in Arizona – McDonald’s value jumped the most from this trade. He looks to be the everyday SS in Arizona since Stephen Drew is out for the season. He will occur the same downgrades that Hill has because of the stadium and surrounding teammates. While he is not an offensive force, he should be getting playing time everyday and help an owner in a deep or NL only league with some counting stats.
Thanks to statcorner.com for the Park Factors
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Isn’t it a bit foolish to project the performance of these players based so much on park factors?
Ex: It makes way more sense to see Johnson improving his average (his BABIP is a lot lower than career averages, his K% is way higher than career and could come down) than it going down (based simply on park factor).
Could not agree more with the post above – unless Johnson is currently sporting a BABIP that matches up with what’s expected, park factor isn’t very relevant. What is his expected BABIP?
I can’t figure it but I can see the fact that he’s swinging at more pitches than ever, and that he is having an unprecedented drop in making contact in the zone. His HR/FB is healthy and he’s hitting a lot of FB – but not IFFB.