Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 20% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy Pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, ordered by ownage %:

Under 20% owned

Dylan Bundy (Baltimore Orioles, 19%) – I introduced Bundy to this weekly column last Thursday and Bundy took another step forward over the weekend, pulling in more favor from owners and just barely staying under the 20% threshold. The secret to his success may be his improved slider locations at the bottom of the zone, featuring fewer mistakes in the heart of the plate. The more Bundy can do to prevent hitters from sitting heat the better (Bundy’s heater is returning an abhorrent -10.3 pVal this season) and keeping his sliders down will help punish those out in front. Meanwhile, look for Bundy’s changeup to take steps forward as the pitch could unlock the final gear in Bundy’s machine. If the pitch returns to its 2016 levels, there could be legitimate production heading owners’ ways this season.

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It’s deep league wire time and during my treasure hunt, I happen to uncover a pair of (potential) gems.

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Instead of call-ups, I’m finding most of my gems in last week’s trash. Here are the players dropped the most in the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues

Demoted

• Corbin Martin (25): A 5.59 BB/9 and a matching ERA means he is off to the minors.
• Devin Smeltzer (23): With Michael Pineda off the DL, Smeltzer and his 89-mph fastball are back in the minors.
• Willians Astudillo (18): There is just no room for this fan favorite on the team. Marwin Gonzalez is a perfect utility player while Mitch Garver (1.103 OPS) and Jason Castro (.933 OPS) can handle the catching duties.
• Daniel Mengden (13): Mengden is an instance of an owner trying to get a jump on a possible two-start week against Tampa and Seattle. Then he went out in his one start and allowed six runs in just over two innings of work.
• Garrett Hampson (11): He’s back in AAA since he just can’t find his footing in the majors (.186/.231/.258)

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I feel the fantasy baseball season is at the part of the season where few “new” call-ups happen. Instead, it’s players we’ve already known about coming into and out of playing time. Garrett Cooper has been around for a couple of weeks but just now he’s seeing his ownership jump. I’ve noticed many of the movers are on 2nd or 3rd division teams. Owners are a little slow at knowing how the playing time shakes out on these sub-.500 teams. Bargains can be found in them.

The guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 20% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy Pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, ordered by ownage %:

Under 20% owned

Jerad Eickhoff (Philadelphia Phillies, 18% owned) – The last three weeks have not treated Eickhoff well. His last five starts have returned a 7.40 ERA (8.38 FIP!), 1.36 WHIP, and a paltry 16% strikeout rate and this suggestion may seem misguided. The good news is Eickhoff still has a strong pair of secondary pitches in his curveball and slider and there’s a chance he can return to his earlier self – the one who recorded just five total earned runs in as many starts. It’s not a sexy play and comes with a good amount of risk, but don’t ignore the chance he turns it around in a big way.

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In last week’s “Who is Being Dropped & Why”, I noted the following on Jeremy Hellickson

At home, he faced the Mets and Cubs and they lit him up. I went back over the previous two weeks in the NFBC Main Event to see if owners targeted him for this two-step. In the Main Event, owners typically look two weeks ahead on the two-start pitchers to get a jump on the crowd.

Week: Add Count, Avg Bid
8: 7, $14
9: 5, $5

First, I found it a little funny that the owners hoped to get a jump on the bidding paid more. Second, almost all of the Hellickson shares added were then dropped (12 of 13).

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It’s another exciting edition of the deep league waiver wire!

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Today’s data dump is brought to you by Paul Sporer and Justin Mason. In a recent Sleeper and the Bust episode, they were frustrated with not knowing how bidding in a 12-team league compared to a 15-teamer. I decided to go ahead and dive into the bidding in the NFBC’s 12-team Online Championship and the 15-team Main Event.

Note: I worked on this article over the weekend and only had this season’s FAAB data up to week 10. By the time the article publishes, week 11 will be available. The results wouldn’t change much with one additional week.

First, here is some background information on the league types. They are exactly identical in these ways:

• 23 total starters, 9 pitchers, 14 hitters
• $1000 in FAAB to spend with no Vickrey bidding and the results run on Sunday evening.
• No $0 bids.
• Seven bench spots.
• Both have a league and overall prize.

As for the differences, one is obvious, one has 12 teams and the other 15 teams. The less obvious one is that the 12-team leagues, on average, start drafting earlier in the preseason. For this reason, MLB teams have more time to churn their rosters and deal with injuries making the first FAAB period a little more aggressive compared to the 15-team leagues.

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