More Arsenal and Skills Analysis of Available Arms

Last week, I tried to find any positive mid-season changes a pitcher has implemented to improve their fantasy stock for the final few weeks. I started with pitchers owned in 16% to 30% of Fantrax leagues and will now be digging even deeper after Mike Montgomery popped up on my radar as someone making positive skill changes.

A pitcher I targetted this FAAB period was the Royals Mike Montgomery. With the Royals, he's improved his ERA, K's, BB's, and GB% by changing his pitch mix

He's increased his cutter (12% SwStr%) usage from 4% to 20% and dropped his sinker (6% SwStr%) usage from 35% to 22%

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 19, 2019

Jordan Zimmermann (16%): Whoa, he’s changed his arsenal around with a mid-season introduction of a sinker (11% SwStr%, 69% GB%). It’s tough to buy too much of the change since he has a 6.29 ERA in the season’s first half and 7.31 ERA in the second half. It wasn’t until the last four starts when he started using his sinker even more (14% usage) and therefore has a 4.35 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 0.9 BB/9.

Also, August was the first month he threw his slider (40%) more than his four-seamer (36%). He pulling out all the stops to remain relevant. Even with the changes, he’s likely a 4.25 ERA pitcher at best but in some leagues, that production level is useful.

Peter Lambert (15%): Still useless.

Jacob Waguespack (14%): While he has an acceptable second-half ERA (4.00), it’s all LOB% driven (80%). And his velocity is down almost 2 mph.

Tommy Milone (9%): An 8.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 should be playable but Milone is just too homer prone (2.0 HR/9). The Bat projects the home rate to be even higher (2.1 HR/9). It’s just about impossible to be a flyball pitcher in the Happy Fun Ball era.

Patrick Sandoval (9%): I’m intrigued. He had great minor league strikeout because of a devastating change (26% SwStr%) numbers which have carried over to the majors (9.6 K/9). His recent downfall has been the walks with 5.2 BB/9 in AAA and 4.50 BB/9 so far in the majors. The combination has his ERA estimators in the 3.50 to 4.50 range but he has a high ERA (5.79) caused by a high BABIP (.333) and low LOB% (61%). Besides Zimmermann, he’s the most interesting pitcher so far.

Jorge López (7%): Everything is getting worse for him. So far in August, he has a season-low 14% K% and season-high 12% BB%.

Sam Gaviglio (7%): Another pitcher putting up decent strikeout (8.0 K/9) and walk (1.7 BB/9) rates but getting killed by home runs (1.8 HR/9). No improvements.

Glenn Sparkman (6%): No changes, still crappy.

Edwin Jackson (6%): He’s doing everything possible with the Tigers to keep his career going. So far this month (3.86 ERA), he’s thrown his slider (18% SwStr%) more than any other pitch. He may just go cutter-slider with both generating ~50% groundballs and thereby limiting the home runs allowed. I can’t pull the trigger on him just yet because he’s Edwin Jackson.

Aaron Brooks (5%): He’s gotten worse since joining the Orioles.