Week 23 Waiver Wire Projections

by
August 25, 2019

If there is a weekend to take off, it’s this one. Kyle Seager and Adam Plutko are the hot commodities. Not good.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Week 23 Batter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Tim Lopes SS | SEA 0% 2% 2% $3
Abraham Toro-Hernandez 3B | HOU 2% 6% 4% $4
Jake Fraley RF | SEA 2% 6% 4% $4
Nick Solak 2B | TEX 3% 9% 6% $6
Wilmer Flores 1B | ARI 3% 9% 6% $6
Matt Beaty 1B | LAD 3% 6% 3% $4
Tom Murphy C | SEA 4% 13% 9% $10
Tommy Edman SS | STL 6% 15% 9% $11
Dexter Fowler RF | STL 7% 12% 5% $6
Delino DeShields CF | TEX 8% 14% 6% $8
Austin Nola SS | SEA 9% 18% 9% $12
Harrison Bader CF | STL 9% 11% 2% $4
Jose Iglesias SS | CIN 9% 11% 2% $4
Matt Adams 1B | WAS 10% 12% 2% $5
Raimel Tapia CF | COL 11% 14% 3% $6
Hanser Alberto SS | BAL 14% 19% 5% $9
Mark Canha CF | OAK 15% 19% 4% $8
Tucker Barnhart C | CIN 20% 23% 3% $9
Albert Pujols 1B | LAA 25% 27% 2% $11
Evan Longoria 3B | SF 25% 27% 2% $11
Chris Taylor SS | LAD 26% 29% 3% $13
Willy Adames SS | TB 27% 29% 2% $13
Luis Arraez 2B | MIN 33% 53% 20% $62
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 34% 54% 20% $63
Marwin Gonzalez LF | MIN 36% 52% 16% $51
Freddy Galvis SS | CIN 36% 40% 4% $22
Kevin Pillar CF | SF 38% 53% 15% $50
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 39% 55% 16% $55
Francisco Mejia C | SD 42% 47% 5% $30
Nick Ahmed SS | ARI 43% 58% 15% $56
Kolten Wong 2B | STL 43% 45% 2% $26
Kyle Tucker LF | HOU 44% 46% 2% $27
Randal Grichuk RF | TOR 48% 51% 3% $33
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B | WAS 49% 52% 3% $34
  • Luis Arraez, Marwin Gonzalez, Kevin Pillar, Nick Ahmed, and Kyle Seager: All five have been available most of the season and are in or ending a hot streak. Also, I wonder if these hitters are trending up based on last week’s ownership momentum (Seager, Ahmed, and Pillar) even if the underlying end-of-season projections don’t support it. Also, owners may be looking for a change and with so few sexy options, these regulars are that change.
  • Tommy Edman, Jake Fraley, Raimel Tapia, and Tim Lopes: For any team needing stolen base help, these four are a must-add. Besides the steals, they are not complete zeros in power. Lopes is the top target if a team only needs steals.
  • Tom Murphy: Catchers have been surprisingly decent this season with owners not having to settle for the .230 AVG and 14 HR guys.
  • Austin Nola: He’s been acceptable but his real value comes from leagues where he’s catcher eligible.
  • Nick Solak: He’s a nice power addition if he can find full-time at-bats.
Week 23 Pitcher FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Matt Magill RP | SEA 0% 7% 7% $2
Carlos Estevez RP | COL 0% 5% 5% $1
Brock Burke SP | TEX 1% 7% 6% $2
Rowan Wick RP | CHC 1% 3% 2% $0
Matt Albers RP | MIL 2% 4% 2% $0
Daniel Hudson RP | WAS 4% 14% 10% $4
Logan Webb SP | SF 6% 18% 12% $6
Steven Brault RP | PIT 6% 10% 4% $1
Felix Hernandez SP | SEA 6% 8% 2% $1
Tony Gonsolin SP | LAD 8% 15% 7% $3
Dereck Rodriguez SP | SF 8% 12% 4% $1
Jacob Waguespack SP | TOR 9% 16% 7% $3
Jalen Beeks RP | TB 9% 12% 3% $1
Adrian Houser RP | MIL 12% 37% 25% $26
Nick Anderson RP | TB 13% 17% 4% $2
Johnny Cueto SP | SF 14% 18% 4% $2
Mike Montgomery RP | KC 15% 37% 22% $21
Adam Plutko SP | CLE 15% 32% 17% $13
Hunter Strickland RP | WAS 17% 19% 2% $1
Kolby Allard RP | TEX 19% 27% 8% $4
A.J. Puk SP | OAK 21% 27% 6% $3
Justus Sheffield RP | SEA 22% 30% 8% $5
Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA 24% 27% 3% $3
Dylan Bundy SP | BAL 26% 29% 3% $3
Michael Wacha SP | STL 28% 31% 3% $3
Homer Bailey SP | OAK 30% 40% 10% $8
Joe Jimenez RP | DET 32% 34% 2% $3
Dillon Peters SP | LAA 34% 36% 2% $4
Sergio Romo RP | MIN 39% 43% 4% $6
Joe Ross SP | WAS 40% 53% 13% $14
Adam Wainwright SP | STL 40% 50% 10% $11
Mark Melancon RP | ATL 44% 57% 13% $15
Ivan Nova SP | CHW 44% 57% 13% $15
Cal Quantrill SP | SD 48% 65% 17% $22
  • Adrian Houser, Mike Montgomery, and Joe Ross: Recently, I found all three making positive changes to their arsenals and they deserve the ownership boost.
  • Adam Plutko: I don’t hate his two-start week at Detroit and at Tampa.
  • Justus Sheffield: He’s had walk problems forever, so it’s not surprising to see he walked more batters than struck out in his 2019 MLB debut. Pay for the talent, not the name.
  • Logan Webb: I’m putting him in the must-own bin. Strikeouts, walks, groundballs. Oh, my.
  • Brock Burke: He starts today for the White Sox and with no runs allowed in a first start, his stock could increase with a good performance. It’s tough to get a read on his talent because he’s jumped so many levels in the past two seasons. But that rise might be the sign needed to buy-in with the Rangers feeling he has conquered each level.

Reliever Rankings (Saves focused)

  1. Mark Melancon
  2. Joe Jimenez
  3. Matt Magill
  4. Sergio Romo
  5. Carlos Estevez
  6. Matt Albers
  7. Daniel Hudson
  8. Hunter Strickland
  9. Nick Anderson
  10. Rowan Wick

 

2019 Week 22 NFBC Main Event FAAB Results
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Mark Melancon $20 8
Joe Ross $17 5
Luke Voit $15 5
Carlos Estevez $11 6
Sergio Romo $9 6
Matt Beaty $9 17
Mike Montgomery $9 12
Ivan Nova $9 10
Wade Davis $9 13
Daniel Hudson $8 27
Adam Plutko $8 6
Kolby Allard $8 16
Josh Rojas $7 35
Tommy Edman $7 11
Corban Joseph $7 11
Asdrubal Cabrera $7 5
Evan Longoria $7 10
Jesus Luzardo $7 6
Tony Gonsolin $6 21
Logan Webb $5 25
Sean Manaea $5 7
Jalen Beeks $5 9
Zach Eflin $5 10
Kike Hernandez $4 5
Martin Perez $4 5
Hanser Alberto $4 8
Johnny Cueto $4 8
Joe Palumbo $4 17
Ty France $4 16
Greg Allen $4 22
Zach Davies $4 6
Wilmer Flores $3 20
Tim Lopes $3 7
Jose Iglesias $3 6
Trevor Richards $3 6
Matt Albers $3 13
Dillon Peters $3 6
Brandon Drury $3 11
Welington Castillo $3 12
Steven Brault $3 12
Matt Magill $2 10
Josh Naylor $2 7
Michael Wacha $2 7
Tucker Barnhart $2 5
CC Sabathia $2 6
Dereck Rodriguez $2 8
Brett Phillips $2 7
Rowdy Tellez $2 6
Kyle Freeland $2 5
Hunter Strickland $2 7
Isiah Kiner-Falefa $2 6
Tommy Milone $1 6

 

2018 Week 23 NFBC Main Event FAAB Results
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Michael Kopech $85 5
Koda Glover $22 16
Touki Toussaint $17 20
Brad Keller $16 6
Trevor Hildenberger $15 15
Robert Gsellman $14 7
Taylor Ward $14 32
Danny Jansen $13 27
Austin Gomber $12 17
Rafael Ortega $12 25
Jake Junis $11 8
Freddy Galvis $11 7
Greg Allen $10 21
Brett Anderson $10 25
Tyler Austin $9 16
Alex Cobb $9 10
Kelvin Herrera $9 9
Welington Castillo $8 20
Matt Wieters $7 5
Wei-Yin Chen $7 6
Daniel Poncedeleon $7 21
Charlie Culberson $7 6
Cedric Mullins $7 14
Adam Plutko $6 14
Nicky Delmonico $6 8
Jalen Beeks $5 10
Lucas Giolito $5 6
Melky Cabrera $5 18
Hunter Strickland $5 5
Austin Jackson $4 8
Neil Walker $4 7
Felix Pena $3 11
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $3 8
Phillip Ervin $3 6
Erasmo Ramirez $3 13
Kevin Plawecki $3 9
Logan Forsythe $3 14
David Fletcher $3 5
Ty Blach $3 6
Joe Mauer $2 5
Kolten Wong $2 6
James Shields $2 11
Jordan Hicks $2 5
Pablo Lopez $1 7
Robbie Erlin $1 6
Jose Bautista $1 6





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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kevinthecomic
4 years ago

10-team, h2h, daily lineup, 7×7, QS: Drop Mikolas, Fiers or Lyles for Webb?

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Jeff Zimmermanmember
4 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

Lyles

0
kevinthecomic
4 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

Thanks Jeff! You and your colleagues are awesome, btw! I was thinking Lyles too, except that Nick Pollack wrote this about him last week: “Since shifting from Pittsburgh to Milwaukee, Lyles has only helped fantasy teams. He’s surrendered just 3 ER, collected 14 strikeouts, and earned a pair of wins, yet still hasn’t earned the trust of the majority of owners. With his next two starts coming against the Nationals and Diamondbacks, there’s still value to be had, using his curveball down and the zone and confidently elevating to earn whiffs. Lyles could be an arm to favor not just in the short term, but through your fantasy playoffs.” — Now I am all NEUROTIC!

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