Week 22 FAAB Projections

With no big wallet busters this week, some owners may slack on their adds but several players could provide nice value. Nothing sexy, just useful.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

J.D. Davis: How in the hell was he just 45% owned. So far he’s got 14 homers and a .310 AVG while starting 18 of the last 20 games.

Josh Rojas: I was all in when I heard he was first called up, but he’s only played in four of six games. While he ha shown speed (19 SB) and power (12 HR) in AAA, he loses quite a bit of value playing two-thirds of the time. I’d try to find a way to roster him but not start him this next week to see if the playing picture clears up.

Kyle Seager, Starlin Castro, and Kevin Pillar: Three vets who had a hot week. They should probably be owned in 15-teamers but no talent changes.

Ty France: He destroyed AAA (.399/.477/.770) and is now the Padres starting second baseman.

Jon Berti: A Josh Rojas (speed-power combo) clone with more secure playing time.

Teoscar Hernandez: The raw talent has always existed but the playing time has been suspect. The talent is still a little suspect (31 K%) but 19 homers in 349 PA is playable. Also, he’s started seven of the last eight games.

Ian Happ: I was not a fan of Happ coming into the season because he had major strikeout issues. He was too patient and fell behind in many counts. He’s raised both is Swing% (51%) and Contact% (69%) to career-highs while dropping his strikeout rate to 25%.

Mike Yastrzemski: He is in the Rojas camp where his limited talent has to overcome sporadic playing time. I’m not sure it is possible. He was in a platoon with Joey Richard before Alex Dickerson came off the IL. Now, he’s likely in one with Austin Slater.

Nick Ahmed: It’s been an accumulating season for him. We rank him as the 16th overall shortstop. I had preseason worries about plate discipline but he’s improved his walk (6% to 7% to 9%) and strikeout (22% to 19% to 17%) rates for the two straight seasons. Boring but helpful.

Joe Ross: Adding a curveball (and other changes) has improved his outlook as I documented earlier this week.

Dillon Peters: He was in line for a two-start week which explains some of the increase. Also, he has a 3.38 ERA with his ERA estimators over a run higher.

Ivan Nova: Don’t fall for the 0.41 ERA in August. The only forces behind this improvement are luck-based (0.4 HR/9, .194 BABIP, 91% LOB%).

Cal Quantrill: Like Peters, his 3.23 ERA doesn’t seem sustainable with ERA estimators over 4.00. He’s been on fire in the second half (1.31 ERA) but all the luck has been going his way (.206 BABIP, 84% LOB%, 0.5 HR/9).

Mike Montgomery: He’s turned his season around with an 8.2 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 3.68 ERA with the Royals.

Kolby Allard: Allards fastball velocity is up 3 mph from last season. He has a 10.8 K/9 so far this season going into a possible two-start week against the Angels and White Sox.

Logan Webb: Add if you have an open bench spot. He could be demoted immediately but his five-inning, seven-strikeout start has me interested. I’ve not been able to dive into the start but StatCast had him throwing a 93-mph fastball, a slider versus a curve (in scouting reports), and a change. Sorry for not having more.

Closer rankings (saves centric)

1. Mark Melancon
2. Archie Bradley
3. Joe Jimenez
4. Emilio Pagan
5. Derek Law
6. Nick Anderson
7. Seth Lugo
8. Pedro Strop