Week 22 FAAB Projections

With no big wallet busters this week, some owners may slack on their adds but several players could provide nice value. Nothing sexy, just useful.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

2019 Week 22 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Dylan Moore SS | SEA 0% 1% 1% $5
Josh Rojas 3B | ARI 1% 14% 13% $19
Randy Arozarena CF | STL 2% 5% 3% $6
Brent Rooker 1B | MIN 2% 3% 1% $5
Ty France 3B | SD 3% 6% 3% $6
Greg Allen CF | CLE 4% 6% 2% $6
Josh Naylor LF | SD 4% 5% 1% $5
Jon Berti 2B | MIA 5% 10% 5% $8
Adley Rutschman C | BAL 7% 8% 1% $6
Raimel Tapia CF | COL 9% 11% 2% $6
Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU 9% 10% 1% $6
Hanser Alberto SS | BAL 12% 15% 3% $8
Teoscar Hernandez LF | TOR 16% 18% 2% $9
Starlin Castro 2B | MIA 17% 24% 7% $15
Tucker Barnhart C | CIN 17% 20% 3% $10
Luis Arraez 2B | MIN 19% 34% 15% $33
Ian Happ CF | CHC 22% 31% 9% $21
Manuel Margot CF | SD 22% 24% 2% $12
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 26% 36% 10% $26
Kevin Pillar CF | SF 30% 39% 9% $28
Miguel Andujar 3B | NYY 30% 31% 1% $16
Nick Ahmed SS | ARI 31% 44% 13% $38
Francisco Mejia C | SD 32% 42% 10% $32
Marwin Gonzalez LF | MIN 32% 37% 5% $22
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 34% 41% 7% $27
Luis Urias 2B | SD 34% 36% 2% $20
Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB 35% 37% 2% $21
Eric Sogard SS | TB 36% 39% 3% $23
Jesus Aguilar 1B | TB 41% 45% 4% $29
Randal Grichuk RF | TOR 43% 48% 5% $33
J.D. Davis 3B | NYM 45% 60% 15% $61
Anthony Santander RF | BAL 47% 48% 1% $31
Carson Kelly C | ARI 50% 56% 6% $43

J.D. Davis: How in the hell was he just 45% owned. So far he’s got 14 homers and a .310 AVG while starting 18 of the last 20 games.

Josh Rojas: I was all in when I heard he was first called up, but he’s only played in four of six games. While he ha shown speed (19 SB) and power (12 HR) in AAA, he loses quite a bit of value playing two-thirds of the time. I’d try to find a way to roster him but not start him this next week to see if the playing picture clears up.

Kyle Seager, Starlin Castro, and Kevin Pillar: Three vets who had a hot week. They should probably be owned in 15-teamers but no talent changes.

Ty France: He destroyed AAA (.399/.477/.770) and is now the Padres starting second baseman.

Jon Berti: A Josh Rojas (speed-power combo) clone with more secure playing time.

Teoscar Hernandez: The raw talent has always existed but the playing time has been suspect. The talent is still a little suspect (31 K%) but 19 homers in 349 PA is playable. Also, he’s started seven of the last eight games.

Ian Happ: I was not a fan of Happ coming into the season because he had major strikeout issues. He was too patient and fell behind in many counts. He’s raised both is Swing% (51%) and Contact% (69%) to career-highs while dropping his strikeout rate to 25%.

Mike Yastrzemski: He is in the Rojas camp where his limited talent has to overcome sporadic playing time. I’m not sure it is possible. He was in a platoon with Joey Richard before Alex Dickerson came off the IL. Now, he’s likely in one with Austin Slater.

Nick Ahmed: It’s been an accumulating season for him. We rank him as the 16th overall shortstop. I had preseason worries about plate discipline but he’s improved his walk (6% to 7% to 9%) and strikeout (22% to 19% to 17%) rates for the two straight seasons. Boring but helpful.

2019 Week 22 Pitcher FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Logan Webb SP | SF 0% 6% 6% $4
Mike Montgomery RP | KC 5% 16% 11% $7
Derek Law RP | TOR 5% 10% 5% $1
Erick Fedde SP | WAS 5% 9% 4% $3
Adrian Houser RP | MIL 6% 14% 8% $5
Jalen Beeks RP | TB 6% 10% 4% $3
Tony Gonsolin SP | LAD 7% 10% 3% $3
Elieser Hernandez RP | MIA 7% 9% 2% $3
Kolby Allard RP | TEX 10% 21% 11% $8
Johnny Cueto SP | SF 10% 14% 4% $3
Nick Anderson RP | TB 11% 13% 2% $1
Pedro Strop RP | CHC 16% 18% 2% $3
Joe Ross SP | WAS 17% 42% 25% $29
Dillon Peters SP | LAA 19% 35% 16% $15
Justus Sheffield RP | SEA 20% 22% 2% $4
Dylan Bundy SP | BAL 23% 27% 4% $5
Michael Wacha SP | STL 24% 28% 4% $5
Ivan Nova SP | CHW 26% 46% 20% $22
Mark Melancon RP | ATL 30% 45% 15% $25
Mitch Keller SP | PIT 30% 34% 4% $6
Joe Jimenez RP | DET 30% 32% 2% $3
Sean Manaea SP | OAK 31% 32% 1% $5
Seth Lugo RP | NYM 33% 39% 6% $8
Cal Quantrill SP | SD 35% 48% 13% $15
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 35% 38% 3% $7
Adam Wainwright SP | STL 37% 41% 4% $7
Jordan Lyles RP | MIL 42% 44% 2% $8
Archie Bradley RP | ARI 44% 48% 4% $10
Emilio Pagan RP | TB 46% 64% 18% $42
Andrew Heaney SP | LAA 47% 54% 7% $12
Nathan Eovaldi SP | BOS 47% 51% 4% $10
Jesus Luzardo SP | OAK 49% 55% 6% $12

Joe Ross: Adding a curveball (and other changes) has improved his outlook as I documented earlier this week.

Dillon Peters: He was in line for a two-start week which explains some of the increase. Also, he has a 3.38 ERA with his ERA estimators over a run higher.

Ivan Nova: Don’t fall for the 0.41 ERA in August. The only forces behind this improvement are luck-based (0.4 HR/9, .194 BABIP, 91% LOB%).

Cal Quantrill: Like Peters, his 3.23 ERA doesn’t seem sustainable with ERA estimators over 4.00. He’s been on fire in the second half (1.31 ERA) but all the luck has been going his way (.206 BABIP, 84% LOB%, 0.5 HR/9).

Mike Montgomery: He’s turned his season around with an 8.2 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 3.68 ERA with the Royals.

Kolby Allard: Allards fastball velocity is up 3 mph from last season. He has a 10.8 K/9 so far this season going into a possible two-start week against the Angels and White Sox.

Logan Webb: Add if you have an open bench spot. He could be demoted immediately but his five-inning, seven-strikeout start has me interested. I’ve not been able to dive into the start but StatCast had him throwing a 93-mph fastball, a slider versus a curve (in scouting reports), and a change. Sorry for not having more.

Closer rankings (saves centric)

  1. Mark Melancon
  2. Archie Bradley
  3. Joe Jimenez
  4. Emilio Pagan
  5. Derek Law
  6. Nick Anderson
  7. Seth Lugo
  8. Pedro Strop

 

2019 Week 21 Main Event Bids
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Aristides Aquino $92 16
Mike Foltynewicz $37 5
Seth Lugo $17 6
Ian Happ $14 32
Andrew Heaney $14 8
Isan Diaz $13 30
Jon Berti $12 27
Mitch Keller $11 15
Griffin Canning $11 6
Mark Melancon $10 27
Anthony Bass $9 7
Roman Quinn $9 6
Edwin Encarnacion $9 6
Pedro Strop $8 23
Sam Travis $8 8
Adrian Houser $8 27
Spencer Turnbull $7 7
Derek Law $7 32
Harold Castro $7 8
Dillon Peters $6 31
Cameron Maybin $6 10
Yusei Kikuchi $6 7
Mike Montgomery $5 22
Ivan Nova $5 7
Luke Jackson $5 6
Joe Ross $5 26
Kolby Allard $5 21
Starlin Castro $5 16
Tucker Barnhart $4 10
Anthony Banda $4 5
Patrick Sandoval $4 8
Erick Fedde $4 7
Todd Frazier $3 5
Dexter Fowler $3 5
Jose Suarez $3 17
Derek Fisher $3 11
Jose Osuna $3 18
Cheslor Cuthbert $3 5
Jesus Luzardo $3 7
Evan Longoria $3 8
Elieser Hernandez $2 13
Matt Adams $2 9
Mike Ford $2 11
Lewis Brinson $2 9
Jose Peraza $2 5
Tommy Milone $2 6
Tommy Edman $2 11
Travis Demeritte $2 12
Ariel Jurado $2 8
Nick Anderson $2 6
Adam Haseley $1 5
Jacob Waguespack $1 5
Alex Dickerson $1 6
Brandon Drury $1 7
Jace Peterson $1 8
Jake Rogers $1 5
Shawn Armstrong $1 5
Matt Albers $1 6

 

2018 Week 22 Main Event Bids
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Michael Kopech $85 5
Koda Glover $22 16
Touki Toussaint $17 20
Brad Keller $16 6
Trevor Hildenberger $15 15
Robert Gsellman $14 7
Taylor Ward $14 32
Danny Jansen $13 27
Austin Gomber $12 17
Rafael Ortega $12 25
Jake Junis $11 8
Freddy Galvis $11 7
Greg Allen $10 21
Brett Anderson $10 25
Tyler Austin $9 16
Alex Cobb $9 10
Kelvin Herrera $9 9
Welington Castillo $8 20
Matt Wieters $7 5
Wei-Yin Chen $7 6
Daniel Poncedeleon $7 21
Charlie Culberson $7 6
Cedric Mullins $7 14
Adam Plutko $6 14
Nicky Delmonico $6 8
Jalen Beeks $5 10
Lucas Giolito $5 6
Melky Cabrera $5 18
Hunter Strickland $5 5
Austin Jackson $4 8
Neil Walker $4 7
Felix Pena $3 11
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $3 8
Phillip Ervin $3 6
Erasmo Ramirez $3 13
Kevin Plawecki $3 9
Logan Forsythe $3 14
David Fletcher $3 5
Ty Blach $3 6
Joe Mauer $2 5
Kolten Wong $2 6
James Shields $2 11
Jordan Hicks $2 5
Pablo Lopez $1 7
Robbie Erlin $1 6
Jose Bautista $1 6

We hoped you liked reading Week 22 FAAB Projections by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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nego
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nego

How is Seth Lugo ranked behind Derek Law and Jimenez. I’d have him right behind Bradley (and both ahead of Melancon)