2/4/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Chris Archer to TB (1:44)
• Kolten Wong to MIL (9:58)
• Enrique Hernández to BOS (13:54)

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In a previous post, we looked at Ottoneu head-to-head (H2H) leagues and how starting pitching values shift due to different rules. Because season-long points leagues use an innings-pitched cap, innings pitched are the scarce resource you expend (and need to maximize) during the season, putting a premium on SP who post high points per IP. But because H2H leagues use a games-started-per-week cap instead of IP, IP are no longer a scarce resource and the premium is on pitchers who score a high number of points per start, regardless of their points per IP. Today, we’ll see if we can identify pitchers to target or avoid based on that.
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
• Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
• Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
• Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
• Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
• Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
• Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
• Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
• Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
• Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
• Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
• Part 12: Houser, Patiño, Gilbert, Ponce de Leon, Wainwright, Martinez
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Yesterday, I reviewed my starting pitcher ERA upside guys, comparing my Pod Projections with Steamer. Today, I’ll review the downside guys.

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2/2/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PAUL V. JUSTIN SPS

Paul HIGHER

• Mike Minor (2:30)
• Michael Kopech (7:15)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (10:05)
• David Price (12:33)
• Lance McCullers Jr. (15:40)

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It’s been just over four months since my last SP update so this was overdue. I’ll have an article and a podcast discussing these in more detail. For this piece, I’ll just have the rankings and then respond to your comments. Blue bar starts a new tier. Let me know what you think!

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The standard pitching metric of production in Ottoneu points leagues is points per inning pitched. With a 1500 IP cap, innings are currency and you need to maximize the return for every inning pitched. But in head-to-head leagues, innings are no longer the scarce resource managers have to manage. Instead, each team can throw an unlimited number of innings, but there’s a limit on games started per week. For Ottoneu head-to-head, or any other league with a games-started cap for pitchers, the pitching metric that matters for SP is not points per inning pitched, but points per game started. And that can swing values. The question is, how much does it matter?
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We have completed our reviews of Pod Projections versus Steamer on the hitting side, so now let’s move on over to pitching. I only published two pieces, comparing our ERA projections. Today, I’ll recap the names included on my ERA upside list. Given that even a full season ERA reflects a good deal of good and/or bad fortune, only 60 games and around 12 starts means ERAs landed all over the place, sometimes far off from consensus forecasts. So it’ll be fun to see where we projected these pitchers and where their ERAs actually settled.

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Spring training can be helpful in determining a pitcher’s future performance. While most of it should be taken with a grain of salt, sometimes it can be a calling card for things to come. Some major components to look out for involve velocity, command, and pitch mix.

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