Pitchers To Grab At The End Of Your Drafts

When grabbing pitchers and hitters towards the end game of the draft it makes complete sense to grab players who start off with an easy schedule. Based on the Main Event format where 450 players are taken overall so we will stick with pitchers who are in the 400 range. Below are some pitchers who are decent additions to start the season due to their matchups. Just make sure not to hold on for too long where they can burn you.

Alec Mills, CHC 432 ADP 

Projected starts: vs PIT, @PIT, @MIL 

I was crazy enough to make a bold prediction that Mills would be the SP1 for the Cubs in 2021 so how could I not mention him here? Mills is known for being deceptive and seems to possess our brand new shiny toy called seam-shifted wake. He holds a deep arsenal where he prefers to lean heavily on his sinker and four-seam fastball. His pitches provide a ton of movement especially his changeup and slider (throw them more Mills!). Overall the late price could be seen as perceived value. 

If Mills is the second starting pitcher there, something Roster Resource thinks, then he ends up facing the Pirate twice to start the season. Yes, the Pirates who traded Josh Bell and now have Colin Moran in their third slot and Bryan Reynolds as their potential cleanup. Having a .300 hitter with very little power in your cleanup spot is interesting but who else would go there? After Reynolds, the rest of their lineup fills out with Gregory Polanco (can’t stay healthy), Anthony Alford (who?), Jacob Stallings, and Kevin Newman. This is an offense I will be abusing all season when streaming pitchers.

You can dump him after these two starts but if you are feeling spicy pitching him against the Brewers might not be a terrible play. If they start off hot don’t do it but if they are in 2020 form it is certainly a formidable option. Last season the Brewers couldn’t make contact with anything and quickly became a bottom-half offense in the MLB. Last season they were 24th in wRC+.

Danny Duffy 485 ADP

Projected starts: vs TEX

If you want to draft someone for one start, Duffy might be a solid choice. Right now it looks like the Royals might consider him their SP1 although it should probably be Mike Minor or Brad Keller. While Duffy seems to be a lost cause at this point he does still have those starts where he throws for a lot of strikeouts. Last season against weaker offenses like Detroit he performed well in the strikeout category. He actually had five starts overall with six strikeouts or more.

Duffy grabs the Texas Rangers for his first start of the season, but drop him quickly after as he draws the White Sox for his second start. The Rangers were arguably the worst offense in the league last season. They were 28th in wRC+, 29th in OBP, and 25th in ISO. They added David Dahl and Nate Lowe to the team but that isn’t exactly the biggest upgrade. 

Matt Shoemaker 456 ADP

Projected starts: @MIL, vs SEA

Shomaker found a new home with the Minnesota Twins this offseason. The main gripe with Shoemaker has always been his health. But for these purposes, we don’t really care about that. When he is on the mound he has been pretty decent, especially against weaker offenses. He has a solid splitter that he pairs up with two fastballs. The splitter has always been a serious strikeout pitch and much like Duffy, Shoemaker has that strikeout threat. 

He draws the Brewers first and we talked about their offense above. He also draws the Seattle Mariners for his second start. The Mariners are a little tricky because they can explode at times but overall they were strikeout prone, something that favors Shoemaker. Last season they were fifth in K% at 25.0%. 

Johnny Cueto 476 ADP

Projected starts: @SEA, vs COL 

I tell you, one of the most fun pitchers to watch is Johnny Cueto. I love how he messes with his delivery timing and you can tell he is just having fun out there. With that said, the key to Cueto is his velocity and so far in spring training, it is where it needs to be. Overall last season he wasn’t great but when facing weaker offenses he fared well. For instance, he had a two-game stretch against the Diamondbacks and pitched 11.1 innings with three earned runs and 12 strikeouts. 

We talked about Seattle above so let’s talk about Cueto’s second opponent. Last season the Rockies did get to Cueto on the road but I’d be willing to take that chance here. The Rockies are so bad on the road, always have been. On the road, their offense was 27th in wOBA, 24th in OPS, and has the fourth-highest strikeout rate. They traded away Nolan Arenado and their lineup looks weaker than last season. Expect the Rockies to struggle on the road once again this year, maybe even more so than ever.

 





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wanderlust franco
3 years ago

Does rotographs have an editor or someone who knows how to use commas properly/consistently? Great article, poor punctuation skills. I know this is picking nits, but recently, some of these posts have been brutal to read.

BenFranklin17
3 years ago

you are insufferable. get a life

wanderlust franco
3 years ago
Reply to  BenFranklin17

Thanks.

mr_hoggmember
3 years ago
Reply to  BenFranklin17

You need a capital “Y” and a semicolon there …

Dewey24
3 years ago

Gotta stand with with Professor Franco here. There are just way too many sentences on FanGraphs that need to be read two or three times before they make sense.

fartbox12345
3 years ago

Indeed, they have the great Meg Rowley. I guess she’s….doing other things?

Prophet of the Sandlot
3 years ago
Reply to  fartbox12345

How about use grammarly.com…..but let Meg keep her job. I appreciate all of the work from Fangraphs…so thank you for your efforts on our collective behalf.

leistomania93
3 years ago

Meg sucks

fartbox12345
3 years ago
Reply to  leistomania93

Meg is awesome, shut up

weezymember
3 years ago
Reply to  fartbox12345

Meg doesn’t edit for rotographs.

Brad Johnsonmember
3 years ago
Reply to  weezy

^This.

fartbox12345
3 years ago
Reply to  weezy

🙁

Groundout
3 years ago

While I don’t generally believe in complaining about free content, I agree: poor writing mechanics actively makes stories harder to read. If I’m looking for something to read for leisure, I’ll often skip stories by this author because of this, even though I think he’s a good analyst.

If this was more actively edited, that wouldn’t be the case.