2021 Pod Projections: Trent Grisham

Only two months after publishing the first one of this year, it’s time to get forecasting again with another 2021 Pod Projection! The 2021 forecasts are now available and include nearly 600 player lines. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

2021 Pod Projection Index
Ha-seong Kim

Today, I’ll analyze 2020 fantasy breakout, Padres outfielder Trent Grisham. A 2019 minor league performance spike between Double-A and Triple-A put him on fantasy owners’ radars, but his MLB debut that year was a mixed bag. Still, he entered the 2020 season as a trendy sleeper, and he certainly delivered on those hopes by going 10/10 over the short season and easily outearning his cost. Now, fantasy owners aren’t entirely sure how to value him. His NFBC ADP since Feb 1 sits around 71, but he’s gone as early as pick 46 and as late as 119. Clearly, there’s little agreement on his 2021 value, which isn’t too surprising given the limited MLB sample we have to evaluate. So let’s go metric by metric, discussing and projecting each, and ultimately calculating a full projection line, which will be compared to the rest of the forecasts shared on his player page.

Plate Appearances: 631

Grisham spent the majority of his time batting leadoff last season. When he didn’t hit leadoff, he typically batted second. So unless he endures an extended slump, expect him to hit at or near the top of the order. My projected PAs assume he hits leadoff, but I didn’t give him full credit considering the slight risk he takes a seat against some left-handers.

BB%: 11.5%

Grisham has been a walk machine throughout his professional career. Amazingly, he has never posted a walk rate below the 10.9% mark he recorded during his MLB debut in 2019. His xBB% (I’m using an updated equation not yet shared) almost perfectly matches his actual marks so far, so he has been a legit double digit walker. Still, I like playing things conservative with young guys who have less than a full season’s worth of PAs under their belts. So although my walk rate is right around his career MLB mark, it’s relatively low compared to his history.

K%: 25.2%

It’s hard to get a sense of Grisham’s true strikeout rate skills, as he’s been as high as the mid-20% range and as low as the mid-teens during his minor league career. What’s interesting is that his SwStk% has been in the single digits during every stop since 2016. That includes MLB, yet his strikeout rate jumped back into the mid-20% range. Why? Because he’s super passive at the plate and has recorded well below average Z-Swing% in both 2019 and 2020. That has led to a strong walk rate, but also increases his strikeout rate as it extends his at-bats. The good news is this seems more like a choice, so it would be easier for him to become a bit more aggressive, as opposed to being able to improve on his ability to make contact. That would likely result in lower walk and strikeout rates, and more balls in play. It might not actually raise his wOBA, but could add some additional counting stats and be a slight positive for his fantasy value.

My updated xK% (also not yet shared) sits close to his actual marks, but my projection calls for slight improvement given his history. Until I see any evidence of more aggressiveness at the plate, it’s hard to forecast anything better on the strikeout rate.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 38.5% / 21.5% / 40.0%

Grisham has been a fly ball hitter throughout his entire career, but his FB% dipped in 2020, as many of them turned into line drives. My batted ball distribution forecast assumes a slightly higher FB% than his current career mark to move more in line with his history and 2019 season.

BABIP: .295

As a left-handed hitter, you always worry about a reduced BABIP from grounders into the shift. That has indeed been an issue for Grisham. My updated xBABIP (once again, not yet shared) is almost identical to his actual marks, so he has posted what he is deserving of given his specific batted balls, speed, and penchant for hitting into the shift. That said, his minor league career (with the exception of 2019 at Triple-A) is marred with sub-.300 BABIP marks. As a fly ball hitter who often grounds into the shift, his speed and power just aren’t enough to push that BABIP far above the league average. So my projection calls for a slightly lower mark than his current career mark, which is more in line with his minor league levels.

HR/FB Ratio: 17.0%

Did you have any clue that from 2016-2018, Grisham had only posted mid-single digit HR/FB rates (ranging from 4.3% to 6.2%)?! He ISO marks were barely over .100 and he was decidedly not a power hitter. Then things changed in 2019, when his HR/FB rate shot up to 15.1% at Double-A, during his second tour there, and then rocketed again to 26% after his promotion to Triple-A. I take minor league power spikes like that seriously.

When he was called up to the Brewers, he managed to post a 12.5% HR/FB rate, which was a dropoff from the higher marks he had posted in the minors. So one had to wonder how much of the breakout HR/FB marks were real. That MLB was still double his highest mark from 2016-2018, so clearly he hadn’t regressed back to that version. His xHR/FB during his 2019 debut was just 8.5%, though. So perhaps he really had regressed back to his powerless version, with maybe a little help from his favorable home park. Then 2020 came along and he quieted his doubters, as his 23.8% xHR/FB was actually higher than his actual 20% mark and validates his 2019 minor league power outbreak, even if it came over a pretty small sample.

So my HR/FB rate projection acknowledges his breakout, both 2019 minor league, and 2020 MLB, was real, but also accounts for his weaker 2019 debut showing and the limited MLB data we have to analyze.

Runs and RBI: 97 and 72

With an acceptable OBP, runs scored via the homer, and a stacked lineup behind him, Grisham should score boatloads of runs. As a leadoff hitter, RBI will be harder to come by, but he’ll knock himself in often, and even the bottom of the lineup is much better than most other teams, so he should finish near the top of the RBI leaderboard among leadoff hitters.

SB: 13

Grisham owns above average speed, as evidenced by his lower than average home plate to first base (HP to 1B) time via Statcast. His minor league stolen base record is odd, as he swiped 37 bags in 2017, but hasn’t even attempted 20 in any other year outside his 2015 professional debut. He only attempted one steal during his 2019 MLB debut, but then 11 last year. With a loaded lineup behind him, you never know how often a power hitter is going to decide to run. My stolen base projection is the result of a stolen base per times on base rate just about equal to his current MLB average. That’s the ratio I project to forecast steals.

Below is my final projected hitting line, along with the other systems for comparison:

For the most part, we’ll all in agreement on Grisham’s playing time, with ZiPS the only system forecasting fewer than 600 PAs. Every system is also projecting a batting average in the .240 range, with Steamer the lone one above .250 at .252. That’s easy to explain — the system is projecting by far the lowest strikeout rate, and the only one below 22.7%, let alone 22%. Fewer strikeouts = more balls in play = more hits (usually!).

The goal of these Pod Projection posts is not only to give you a glimpse into the process I follow to project a player, but to identify any metrics I’m more bullish or bearish on for a player than the other systems, and why I am. I am easily the most optimistic on Grisham’s home run total and you could follow my reasoning to determine my HR/FB rate projection. Unfortunately, we don’t know what the other systems are projecting for FB%, so it’s possible they all project a similar HR/FB rate as I am, but are well below my forecasted FB%. Whatever the case, it’s clear I’m more excited about Grisham’s home run potential and am pretty confident I’ll end up being the victor here. The computer systems are likely weighing his weaker power years pre-2019 far more heavily than I am, suggesting it’s the HR/FB rate we differ on.

It’s shocking to see how consistent the RBI projections are, yet the runs scored are more varied. Once again, I’m the high man on the totem pole for RBI, but most of that is likely due to the additional homers I’m projecting.

I mentioned my conservatism in my walk rate projection, and sure enough, I’m well below the other systems and just one of three with a projected walk rate below 12%. I can’t really argue this, as I am far less confident in this forecast than my home run projection. Above, I mentioned Steamer as the most bullish on Grisham’s strikeout rate. Turns out, I’m far and away the most bearish, and I explained how I settled on my projection. Grisham could suddenly decide to become more aggressive this year and swing at more pitches inside the strike zone, making my K% projection look silly. But I’m assuming he continues a similar plate approach to what he has already shown in the Majors.

Last, it’s once again surprising to see how close all the systems are in a metric that really bounces around, BABIP. How are we all in the .290 range, with the exception of ZiPS at just below that mark?! When I work on my projections, I never look at what the other systems are projecting. I don’t even look when I’m done with that particular player’s projection. This is actually the first time I’m looking at Grisham’s projection since finishing it, which likely occurred months ago. So I always get a laugh when I’m so close to everyone else in a metric, especially one that varies greatly from year to year, and for a young player with a small sample of MLB data with which to analyze.