Starting Pitchers ADP Market Report: 3/4/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Zach Plesac (-10.79)- Plesac is one of the most polarizing players this year and that is likely the reason for his drop. He had a breakout season in which he had a 2.28 ERA and over a strike out an inning in 55.1 innings. The best part is he did this in just eight innings, which means even if he regreses, he should rack up a ton of innings. The question is can he maintain the gains in the walk and home run rates. He showed great control, but he doesn’t grade better than average in command +. I tend to believe he definitely took a step forward, but I am not willing to pay a top 25 SP price until I see more. 

 

Framber Valdez (-11.91)- This one may be a moot point now that Valdez has injured his finger which may require season ending surgery. He should drop a ton and likely won’t be worth anything this year. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Joe Musgrove (+16.52)- Musgrove continues to rise as draft season progresses. He had a late season surge that came on the back of a velocity game and now no longer a sleeper, but a popular target that is moving towards the top 30 in terms of starting pitcher. In the last month of the season, he had a 2.16 ERA, a .92 WHIP and 38.8% strikeout rate. The question is whether it is legit this time or not. While the swinging strikeout rate went up to 14.4%, he is likely not going to have a 30+% strikeout rate, but I don’t expect it to drop back to a 20-23% rate either. Usually when a guy has a great final month they are somewhat hidden by a 162 game season, but since a month is half the 2020 season, there is no discount.

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dinelson Lamet (-29.05)- Lament continues to drop with concerns about his ability to hold up throughout the season after ending last year on the IL. Once we see him pitch in spring, he is likely to raise back up, but I won’t be investing at this price or anything near it. 

 

Dylan Bundy (-12.59)- Bundy is dropping after concerns about the way he finished 2020. He had reduced velocity in his final two starts and it showed in the results. His first spring start was good and if he builds on that in his next spring outing, he should start trending back up. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jose Urquidy (+17.28)- After starting the season late, Urquidy is retaining some of that sleeper status he had coming into 2020. He has four usable pitches that all are average to above average and decent command. He is locked into a rotation spot in Houston with no real competition even if he struggles. The strikeouts should tick back up to where they were in 2020 around 23%. He is a pretty decent investment as a guy that could take the next step, but still has a decent floor. 

 

Jamison Taillon (+22.25)- Now that Taillon has signed in New York his price is rising. While the park and division change isn’t helpful, he is on a much better team and appears to be healthy right now. However, he has a long history of injuries and has only pitched a total of 37.1 innings in total over the last two years. There is a ton of risk here, but when he is on the mound, Taillon is a very good pitcher. 

 

Marcus Stroman (+19.23)- Stroman is perpetually underrated, but people are starting to clue into the fact he is going too low. Stroman opted out in 2020, but was fantastic in 2019, especially after being traded to the Mets. He has a great home park with a good offense to support him and is working on a split finger change that could help sustain the strikeout gains we saw at the end of 2020. I love Stroman as a high floor guy, but I think there is more upside in him than some others do. 

 

Nate Pearson (+16.55)- Pearson’s rise will be short lived as he strained his groin recently and may not be ready for Opening Day. That being said, it is not an arm injury and the groin strain is a Grade 1 strain, so he should be able to recover fairly quickly as long as he doesn’t reinjure it. He is the former top pitching prospect in baseball and some have been too quick to write him off for 2021. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Dustin May (-61.75)- Dustin May is falling due to concerns about his role in 2021. The signing of Trevor Bauer likely pushes him back to AAA to start the season. He has a ton of talent, but he needs an injury or a trade to get back into the rotation. 

 

Christian Javier (-12.93)- Javier is another prospect that people are beginning to fade and I tend to agree with him. I like the fastball/slider combo that he has, but he lacks a third pitch he is comfortable throwing. I expect him to get a shot at starting, but until he develops a third pitch that he can use more, his future is likely in the bullpen. 

 

NFBC Pitcher ADP: 3/4/21
1/28/21-3/4/21 Player Team 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 11/1/2020-11/30/2020 12/1/2020-1/27/2021 Change
4.24 Jacob deGrom NYM 9.5 9.23 7.02 2.78
5.73 Gerrit Cole NYY 6 7.05 5.2 -0.53
8.47 Shane Bieber CLE 9 8.5 8.75 0.28
14.17 Trevor Bauer CIN 16 14.82 15.63 1.46
16.65 Yu Darvish CHC 17.5 18.64 17.25 0.6
16.88 Lucas Giolito CWS 20.75 20.5 18.92 2.04
19.21 Walker Buehler LAD 18.75 19.32 19.65 0.44
21.08 Aaron Nola PHI 24.5 24.41 22.29 1.21
24.8 Luis Castillo CIN 28 31.23 25.41 0.61
25.82 Max Scherzer WAS 29.75 28.73 28.84 3.02
28.08 Jack Flaherty STL 30.5 30.55 29.57 1.49
29.65 Brandon Woodruff MLW 38.25 40.36 32.29 2.64
30.62 Clayton Kershaw LAD 28.75 30.77 31.88 1.26
37.67 Zac Gallen ARZ 43.75 38.82 38.82 1.15
43.48 Blake Snell SD 56.25 52.09 48.02 4.54
45.82 Kenta Maeda MIN 43.25 46.59 45.88 0.06
46.17 Tyler Glasnow TB 43.25 51.14 47.25 1.08
50.38 Lance Lynn TEX 60.25 62.32 57.49 7.11
55.23 Carlos Carrasco CLE 77.75 78.5 62.06 6.83
55.8 Liam Hendriks CWS 71.5 68.91 64.73 8.93
56.27 Josh Hader MLW 68.5 60.5 58.73 2.46
56.82 Corbin Burnes MLW 60.75 59.05 56.9 0.08
65.45 Sonny Gray CIN 60.75 62.59 63.67 -1.78
66.65 Zach Plesac CLE 56.75 60.09 55.86 -10.79
67.3 Aroldis Chapman NYY 92.25 85.55 76.9 9.6
67.8 Hyun Jin Ryu TOR 62.5 75.32 73.16 5.36
70.44 Stephen Strasburg WAS 71.5 79.82 70.08 -0.36
71.97 Max Fried ATL 61.25 54.73 62.1 -9.87
72.24 Edwin Diaz NYM 92 81.82 77.04 4.8
78.59 Kyle Hendricks CHC 93 93.86 84.25 5.66
79.02 Raisel Iglesias CIN 115.75 111.91 86.08 7.06
80.05 Jose Berrios MIN 87 91.45 84.06 4.01
89.94 James Karinchak CLE 126.5 115 100.04 10.1
92.89 Framber Valdez HOU 99.5 88.32 80.98 -11.91
95.42 Zack Wheeler PHI 81.75 87.82 89.14 -6.28
97.53 Jesus Luzardo OAK 103.25 99.55 98.61 1.08
99.38 Ian Anderson ATL 90 85.32 92.51 -6.87
101.38 Dinelson Lamet SD 63.5 63.77 72.33 -29.05
101.45 Brad Hand CLE 111.5 115.41 133.73 32.28
101.91 Ryan Pressly HOU 136.5 133.91 113.06 11.15
103.23 Zack Greinke HOU 96.75 112.41 110.71 7.48
108.61 Dylan Bundy LAA 89.5 103.77 96.02 -12.59
108.94 Chris Paddack SD 102.75 109.36 107.18 -1.76
112.89 Joe Musgrove SD 152.25 151.41 129.41 16.52
113.47 Charlie Morton ATL 166 158.41 116.92 3.45
116.36 Kenley Jansen LAD 146 137.36 121.06 4.7
119.06 Julio Urias LAD 98.5 101.18 111.67 -7.39
119.41 Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 137.5 128.95 120.76 1.35
123.06 Kevin Gausman SF 157.25 147.86 115.31 -7.75
125.05 Pablo Lopez MIA 109 120.05 114.57 -10.48
126.61 Kirby Yates SD 215.75 186.14 190.49 63.88
133.12 Sixto Sanchez MIA 91.5 115.36 130.2 -2.92
133.79 Patrick Corbin WAS 161.25 154.41 147.98 14.19
137 Sandy Alcantara MIA 117 134.32 134 -3
145.94 Trevor Rosenthal SD 178 156.77 156.41 10.47
146.74 Nick Anderson TB 156.25 149.05 146.9 0.16
148.08 Craig Kimbrel CHC 295 233.27 189.08 41
154.26 Alex Colome CWS 136.75 135.27 163 8.74
155.08 Frankie Montas OAK 140.25 148.95 153.75 -1.33
162.67 Tyler Mahle CIN 174 186.82 159.27 -3.4
167.17 Rafael Montero TEX 209.25 182.5 180.2 13.03
174.42 Devin Williams MLW 144.25 148.5 156.94 -17.48
176.15 German Marquez COL 179 191.45 174.94 -1.21
177.62 Marco Gonzales SEA 132.25 152.41 169.9 -7.72
179.39 Mike Soroka ATL 156 168.55 177.53 -1.86
183.56 Zach Eflin PHI 214.5 213.77 195.76 12.2
185.02 David Price LAD 145.75 147.14 181.61 -3.41
187.71 Taylor Rogers MIN 159.5 144.82 127.51 -60.2
189.82 Aaron Civale CLE 184.5 190.27 182.16 -7.66
190.82 Corey Kluber NYY 208.5 239.05 249.88 59.06
191.91 Richard Rodriguez PIT 223.25 228.36 197.27 5.36
194.48 Jordan Montgomery NYY 226.5 238.91 194.24 -0.24
196.15 Will Smith ATL 241.5 256.91 221.49 25.34
198.17 Triston McKenzie CLE 125 153.18 200.24 2.07
201.03 Chris Bassitt OAK 174 184.95 201.69 0.66
202.98 Dallas Keuchel CWS 209.75 194.82 197.92 -5.06
203.39 Andrew Heaney LAA 211.25 209.64 204.65 1.26
205.23 Matt Barnes BOS 220.75 234.55 202.16 -3.07
208.68 Drew Smyly ATL 243 257.82 204.88 -3.8
208.92 John Means BAL 233.5 242.95 212.16 3.24
209.7 Jose Urquidy HOU 210 207 226.98 17.28
214.71 Jameson Taillon NYY 229.25 239.32 236.96 22.25
217.65 Marcus Stroman NYM 251.75 249.82 236.88 19.23
217.82 Drew Pomeranz SD 297 269.86 255.12 37.3
218.26 Dustin May LAD 155.5 156.09 156.51 -61.75
221.83 Greg Holland KC 351 393.55 271.75 49.92
227.71 Nathan Eovaldi BOS 238.25 258.23 231.96 4.25
230.29 Jordan Hicks STL 282.75 273 255.18 24.89
230.5 Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 271 260.55 243.37 12.87
231.15 Cristian Javier HOU 185.5 186.55 218.22 -12.93
232.02 Ryan Yarbrough TB 266.5 274.23 248.73 16.71
234.82 Michael Pineda MIN 225 231 227.82 -7
240.15 James Paxton NYY 262.5 255.05 253.1 12.95
243.45 Archie Bradley CIN 474.5 464.36 388.78 145.33
246.32 Sean Manaea OAK 270.5 264.91 246.65 0.33
247.21 Brady Singer KC 219.5 212.59 221.51 -25.7
248.2 Tony Gonsolin LAD 197.5 202.68 189.22 -58.98
250.68 Elieser Hernandez MIA 266 240.27 262.18 11.5
252.11 Amir Garrett CIN 572.25 657.18 327.14 75.03
255.95 Mark Melancon ATL 264.5 244.27 268.16 12.21
256.23 Jose Leclerc TEX 498.5 504.68 367.39 111.16
259.12 Zach Davies SD 207.75 215.86 237.35 -21.77
265.97 Giovanny Gallegos STL 294 252.45 275.88 9.91
268.11 Joakim Soria OAK 689.75 742.45 708.8 440.69
268.26 Daniel Bard COL 310.25 327.32 295.04 26.78
270.21 Nate Pearson TOR 242 237 286.76 16.55
281.36 Kwang Hyun Kim STL 272 259.41 280.57 -0.79
281.85 Chris Sale BOS 204 231.09 235 -46.85
283.82 Jake Odorizzi FA 307.5 338.32 296.37 12.55
284 Anthony Bass TOR 601.5 559.5 613.78 329.78
287.5 Hector Neris PHI 312.5 333.86 277.2 -10.3
290.97 Diego Castillo TB 303.75 291.95 297.78 6.81
294.82 Yusei Kikuchi SEA 348 377.18 308.82 14
296 Dane Dunning TEX 285.25 294.27 282.31 -13.69
301.02 Taijuan Walker TOR 271.25 282.68 320.47 19.45
303.12 Mike Minor OAK 375 359 320.22 17.1
308.52 Justus Sheffield SEA 315.25 301.36 290.43 -18.09
309.89 Josh Lindblom MLW 325 371.91 351.39 41.5
310.64 Tarik Skubal DET 316.75 295.23 299.49 -11.15
311.47 Griffin Canning LAA 323.25 304.36 322.86 11.39
312.7 Hunter Harvey BAL 409.75 397.27 379.76 67.06
315.11 Matthew Boyd DET 316.75 325.05 332.76 17.65
315.95 Mitch Keller PIT 303.5 293.55 333.31 17.36
317.27 Stefan Crichton ARZ 274.75 253.32 248.47 -68.8
318.79 Michael Kopech CWS 244.75 246.05 300.06 -18.73
320.67 Brad Keller KC 277.25 279.36 316.31 -4.36
330.61 Chris Martin ATL 513.5 483.36 403.92 73.31
332.79 Caleb Smith ARZ 293.5 301.59 322 -10.79
333.77 Jake Diekman OAK 546.5 526.23 360.61 26.84
337.39 Robbie Ray TOR 324 342.95 343.76 6.37
338.95 Yimi Garcia MIA 425.5 413.95 345.78 6.83
342.02 Spencer Turnbull DET 322.25 316.09 347.16 5.14
343.73 Domingo German NYY 291.25 308.82 305.94 -37.79
344.44 Noah Syndergaard NYM 326.5 335.18 346.37 1.93
347.61 Freddy Peralta MLW 357.5 352.27 335.14 -12.47
354.06 Tejay Antone CIN 325 378.23 322.8 -31.26
354.47 Deivi Garcia NYY 302 309.18 313.98 -40.49
358.52 J.A. Happ NYY 397.25 448.32 405.31 46.79
364.41 Dylan Cease CWS 347 356.68 383.08 18.67
366 MacKenzie Gore SD 239.75 237.18 306.24 -59.76
366.48 Adbert Alzolay CHC 329.75 363.95 355.31 -11.17
370.35 Lucas Sims CIN 427.75 534.27 329.27 -41.08
370.38 Miles Mikolas STL 426.75 449.86 383.08 12.7
370.42 Adam Ottavino BOS 732.75 738.64 731.51 361.09
372.36 Cal Quantrill CLE 403.25 386.73 366.86 -5.5
378.3 Jordan Romano TOR 220.75 214.86 223.84 -154.46
380.24 Adam Wainwright STL 379 408.09 412.43 32.19
380.86 Madison Bumgarner ARZ 331.25 334.64 402.75 21.89
383.18 David Peterson NYM 349 350.45 362.35 -20.83
385.06 Garrett Richards SD 417 426.77 433.63 48.57
385.23 Carlos Martinez STL 392 412.68 429.16 43.93
387.17 Luke Weaver ARZ 432.75 423.95 403.25 16.08
387.61 Pete Fairbanks TB 447.75 461.82 430.2 42.59
388.03 Zack Britton NYY 379.25 348.77 376.06 -11.97
393.42 Bryan Garcia DET 378 466.09 417.59 24.17
394.06 Jonathan Hernandez TEX 426.75 482.64 378.9 -15.16
394.41 Alex Reyes STL 356 338.64 388.53 -5.88
395.2 Michael Lorenzen CIN 538.75 512.18 411.18 15.98
396.05 Spencer Howard PHI 324.75 361.27 384.24 -11.81
397.98 Casey Mize DET 321.75 329.64 377.82 -20.16
398.71 A.J. Puk OAK 459.5 414.64 423.39 24.68
404.36 Anthony DeSclafani CIN 569.75 565.14 445.18 40.82
408.83 Tanner Houck BOS 390.25 390.45 397.12 -11.71
410.18 Emilio Pagan SD 453.25 483.59 444.25 34.07
413.26 Trevor Rogers MIA 517.75 503.82 409.59 -3.67
414.53 Luis Severino NYY 252.75 353.59 349.84 -64.69
419.11 Rich Hill MIN 504.5 459.95 463.35 44.24
422.97 Tanner Rainey WAS 322.5 322.68 268.59 -154.38
424.91 Jake McGee LAD 748 741.23 741.33 316.42
426.38 Jose Quintana LAA 465 486.91 479.88 53.5
430.44 Reyes Moronta SF 596.25 602.18 482.18 51.74
434.42 Chris Archer PIT 536.75 548.05 524.86 90.44
435.06 Blake Treinen LAD 384.25 404.86 411.27 -23.79
435.86 Emmanuel Clase CLE 413.5 397.68 425.24 -10.62
440 Josh Staumont KC 422.75 409.14 406.84 -33.16
449.27 Adrian Houser MLW 441 456 449.67 0.4
454.39 Alex Wood SF 596.25 599.86 527.25 72.86
454.98 JT Brubaker PIT 463.75 519 471.8 16.82
456.05 Trevor May NYM 536.75 476.86 450.57 -5.48
460.09 Luis Patino SD 407.75 451.09 450.8 -9.29
460.83 Gregory Soto DET 514.25 498.36 495.94 35.11
461.11 Alec Mills CHC 443 419.82 477.67 16.56
469.89 Logan Gilbert SEA 429.75 469.41 430.39 -39.5
472.23 Josh Fleming TB 524.5 545.05 454.47 -17.76
473.29 Seth Lugo NYM 284.75 335.14 347.98 -125.31
474.26 Kris Bubic KC 430.25 400.36 471.12 -3.14
474.3 Nick Pivetta BOS 426.5 490.82 487.02 12.72
474.62 Ross Stripling TOR 436.5 471.18 455.04 -19.58
478.48 Kohei Arihara FA NA 655 517.73 39.25
478.86 Merrill Kelly ARZ 472.25 497.27 514.63 35.77
479.3 Daniel Ponce de Leon STL 398.25 421.36 431.24 -48.06
484.03 Matt Shoemaker TOR 512.5 458.27 482.98 -1.05
489.7 Aaron Bummer CWS 363.25 353.59 343.75 -145.95
492.58 Brusdar Graterol LAD 372 368.45 437.82 -54.76
495.59 Steven Brault PIT 507.5 528.32 491.04 -4.55
497.36 Danny Duffy KC 473.25 496 492.88 -4.48
498.11 Adrian Morejon SD 425.5 456.09 420.31 -77.8
498.27 Garrett Crochet CWS 377.75 390.32 460.02 -38.25
500.24 Michael Wacha TB NA 745.41 528.39 28.15
501.74 Kyle Wright ATL 452.75 482.95 500.71 -1.03
506.77 Tyler Duffey MIN 513.25 533 387.24 -119.53
507.59 Keegan Akin BAL 610.75 579.05 504.59 -3
508.45 Brent Suter MLW 604.75 589.5 515.1 6.65
509.55 Nick Wittgren CLE 555.25 600 557.08 47.53
511.15 Randy Dobnak MIN 577.5 531.95 512.02 0.87
511.2 Dean Kremer BAL 458.75 501.59 497.78 -13.42
512.65 Matt Manning DET 410.25 449.41 481.18 -31.47
514.58 J.B. Wendelken OAK 643.5 602.41 508.22 -6.36
515.35 Jon Gray COL 497 522.86 511.73 -3.62
516.77 Alex Cobb BAL 657.75 655.68 629.22 112.45
517.11 Brandon Kintzler MIA 226.5 289.82 373.71 -143.4
519.91 Steven Matz NYM 615 636.05 552.8 32.89
519.94 Johnny Cueto SF 524.75 553.73 548.98 29.04
520.5 Sean Doolittle WAS 732.25 739.86 728.71 208.21
520.95 Scott Barlow KC 450.75 447.41 485.55 -35.4
524.14 Kyle Gibson TEX 540.75 554.77 530.27 6.13
525.71 Vince Velasquez PHI 641.75 613 529.8 4.09
532.26 Matt Moore DET NA NA 749.25 216.99
533.17 Forrest Whitley HOU 527 536.09 515.25 -17.92
542.53 Rowan Wick CHC 561.5 578 536.98 -5.55
542.95 Mike Mayers LAA 239.75 231.32 480.27 -62.68
549.26 Tanner Scott BAL 583 623.55 573.9 24.64
549.48 Daniel Hudson WAS 262.75 305.41 338.63 -210.85
550.17 Edward Cabrera MIA 587.75 553.18 481.55 -68.62
554.86 Mike Foltynewicz ATL 736.5 713 699.75 144.89
555.73 Joe Jimenez DET 524.75 591.09 543.98 -11.75
556.94 Chad Kuhl PIT 611.25 622 592.67 35.73
557.92 Justin Dunn SEA 497.25 474.91 520.1 -37.82
558.15 Austin Gomber STL 460.75 469.18 461.47 -96.68
561.91 Antonio Senzatela COL 444.5 499.73 545.82 -16.09
562.03 A.J. Minter ATL 547 559.64 584.06 22.03
562.15 Jon Lester WAS 643.5 596.18 640.41 78.26
562.38 Joey Lucchesi NYM 686.5 658.05 642.71 80.33
565.35 Scott Oberg COL 716.75 720.64 626.37 61.02
566.24 Chad Green NYY 532.25 569.73 554.57 -11.67
566.82 Daniel Lynch KC 650.5 602.27 550.51 -16.31
568.83 Patrick Sandoval LAA 628.75 603.5 522.18 -46.65
569.67 Mike Fiers OAK 663.25 632.55 646.78 77.11
572.74 Chris Flexen SEA NA NA 596.98 24.24
576.83 Clarke Schmidt NYY 397.5 426.82 472.96 -103.87
580.44 Kyle Freeland COL 568.75 558.59 585.02 4.58
580.95 Rafael Dolis TOR 323 340.32 430.47 -150.48
581.02 Carlos Rodon CWS 681.75 671.41 683.43 102.41
582.29 Corey Knebel LAD 646.25 626.55 550.73 -31.56
582.98 Bryse Wilson ATL 487.5 481.86 529.59 -53.39
586.76 Tyler Rogers SF 601 604.86 604.63 17.87
587.26 Daulton Jefferies OAK 523 596.91 560.75 -26.51
587.38 Jake Arrieta PHI 633 694.05 706.14 118.76
590.03 Roberto Osuna HOU 459 458.5 536.49 -53.54
591.18 Jeremy Jeffress CHC 329 360.23 505.73 -85.45
594.77 Logan Webb SF 594 619.05 573.29 -21.48
594.91 Matt Wisler SF 720.75 699.55 596.02 1.11
599.97 Corbin Martin ARZ 612.25 576.09 602.94 2.97
600.11 Jonathan Loaisiga NYY 667.5 596.09 568.76 -31.35
602.64 Brendan McKay TB 562 553.77 538.9 -63.74
604.88 Jaime Barria LAA 593.25 571.36 553.2 -51.68
605.98 Jose Alvarado TB 691 684 600.04 -5.94
610.92 Joely Rodriguez TEX 633.25 684.14 642.73 31.81
611.24 Joe Ross WAS 718.25 723.73 634.65 23.41
616.41 Tyler Matzek ATL 627 664.77 570.39 -46.02
618.59 Brent Honeywell Jr. TB 614.25 544.91 586.75 -31.84
620.5 Martin Perez BOS 662.5 650.68 656.22 35.72
620.55 Reynaldo Lopez CWS 635 664.27 631 10.45
624.18 Luis Garcia HOU 584 593.59 600.04 -24.14
624.36 Mychal Givens COL 682.75 650.09 664.2 39.84
624.73 Keone Kela PIT 629.25 672.27 620.41 -4.32
625.17 Brett Anderson MLW 616 680.86 666.29 41.12
625.77 Andrew Miller STL 580 577.5 602.08 -23.69
626.15 Jesse Hahn KC 562.25 546.5 572.73 -53.42
626.3 Darwinzon Hernandez BOS 498.25 570.77 600.06 -26.24
627.79 Rick Porcello NYM 658.5 621.36 621.98 -5.81
628.35 Shane McClanahan TB 634.5 621.18 597.16 -31.19
632.09 Trevor Williams PIT 709.75 733.82 739 106.91
633.67 Kendall Graveman SEA 602 593.95 629.31 -4.36
643.56 Michael Fulmer DET 707 698.86 666.53 22.97
643.89 Cole Hamels ATL 688.75 631 602.22 -41.67
644.65 Brandon Workman PHI 624.75 593.23 686.73 42.08
646.65 Jose De Leon CIN NA NA 710.8 64.15
647.11 Jose Urena DET NA NA 677.29 30.18
652.11 Kevin Ginkel ARZ 707.5 731.05 653.69 1.58
653.05 Austin Adams SD 626.25 598.41 601.47 -51.58
653.91 Shane Greene ATL 556.5 606.77 632.08 -21.83
653.92 Jose Cisnero DET 736.5 724.14 680.12 26.2
655.15 Logan Allen CLE 732.75 741.55 701.53 46.38
657.02 Tom Hatch TOR 534.75 576.77 652.73 -4.29
660.32 Wade Miley CIN 700.75 711.5 702.86 42.54
660.74 Sergio Romo MIN 693 710 735.39 74.65
662.38 Kyle Cody TEX 635 689.64 693.04 30.66
666.5 Daniel Norris DET 564 641.09 658.78 -7.72
668.83 Kyle Crick PIT 651.5 721.27 722.61 53.78
670.58 Austin Voth WAS 537.25 598.5 618.06 -52.52
671.35 Lou Trivino OAK 675 718.18 663.25 -8.1
675.18 Hirokazu Sawamura BOS NA NA
677.52 Chris Stratton PIT NA 745.5 729.94 52.42
678.17 Enoli Paredes HOU 697 687.73 662.22 -15.95
679.8 Connor Brogdon PHI 649.75 704.59 598.65 -81.15
679.89 Pedro Baez HOU 708 728.86 718.65 38.76
680.73 Pierce Johnson SD NA 743.55 680.2 -0.53
681.64 Eric Lauer MLW 715 746.95 683.94 2.3
681.95 Jackson Kowar KC 634.75 645.32 626.96 -54.99
684.26 Collin McHugh BOS NA NA 742.04 57.78
686.06 Tyler Chatwood CHC 730 679.45 639.43 -46.63
686.5 Victor Gonzalez LAD 648.5 700.73 686 -0.5
690.95 Genesis Cabrera STL 632.75 649.09 674.16 -16.79
691.52 Tyler Anderson SF 720.5 722.18 706.04 14.52
693.02 Yusmeiro Petit OAK 672.75 673.41 676.92 -16.1
697.92 Joe Ryan TB 713.75 723.77 667.39 -30.53
698.39 Demarcus Evans TEX 668.25 703.91 622.86 -75.53
699.48 Julio Teheran LAA NA 746.95 741.27 41.79
699.95 Phil Maton CLE NA 727.23 691.51 -8.44
701.08 Brailyn Marquez CHC 719 710.27 676.24 -24.84
702.53 Jordan Balazovic MIN 680 693.23 646.18 -56.35
703.7 Codi Heuer CWS 585.25 592.59 611.75 -91.95
705.38 Tanner Roark TOR NA 742.05 736.31 30.93
705.65 Chase Anderson TOR 678 716.27 729.43 23.78
707.48 Cesar Valdez BAL 617.5 715.55 690.92 -16.56
707.61 Andres Munoz SEA 693.5 610.55 682.16 -25.45
708.56 Josh James HOU 739.5 727.59 702.86 -5.7
712.85 John Curtiss TB 645.5 726.64 734.57 21.72
715.61 Felix Pena LAA 576.25 611.91 659.61 -56
716.58 John Gant STL 668.5 712.32 685.69 -30.89
717.38 Josiah Gray LAD 611.5 619.86 580.43 -136.95
718.85 Julian Merryweather TOR NA NA 742.63 23.78
719.83 Jordan Lyles TEX 712.25 747.55 734 14.17
720.5 Tyler Beede SF NA 728.73 705.59 -14.91
721.94 Hansel Robles LAA 631.75 696.14 675.29 -46.65
723.24 Jeff Hoffman CIN NA 730.68 718.18 -5.06
723.44 Robert Stephenson COL NA 725.27 708.49 -14.95
724.32 Ty Buttrey LAA 639.75 665.36 731.06 6.74
725.47 Tyler Clippard MIN NA 749 748.14 22.67
725.58 Matt Foster CWS 566.75 579.77 644.22 -81.36
726.42 Yohan Ramirez SEA 575 661.55 715.39 -11.03
727.56 Ryan Helsley STL 520.75 645.86 678.86 -48.7
728.76 Keynan Middleton LAA 738.75 738.45 739.82 11.06
728.83 Anibal Sanchez WAS NA 736.68 738.16 9.33
729.36 Hyeon-jong Yang FA NA 746.14 NA NA
729.5 Dellin Betances NYM 676 736.91 737.24 7.74
730.38 Jairo Diaz COL NA 737.41 749.49 19.11
730.64 Nick Margevicius SEA 697.25 719.86 726.35 -4.29
731.5 Nick Lodolo CIN 733.75 679.82 708.14 -23.36
731.56 Dakota Hudson STL 664.5 627.95 726.69 -4.87
731.67 Ryan Weathers SD NA 746.86 738.39 6.72
731.91 James Kaprielian OAK NA 735.23 714.35 -17.56
732.05 Jhoan Duran MIN 723.5 735.41 694.69 -37.36
732.98 Alex Young ARZ 700.5 745.32 730.39 -2.59
733.89 Blake Parker PHI 706.25 748.5 749.59 15.7
734.65 Simeon Woods-Richardson TOR NA NA 749.49 14.84
734.89 Dylan Floro MIA NA NA
735.09 Matt Andriese LAA 705 736.64 707.06 -28.03
735.65 Dillon Tate BAL 725 736.64 736.86 1.21
736.15 Tomoyuki Sugano FA NA 615.77 450.69 -285.46
736.41 Jose Castillo SD 738.75 749.09 742.43 6.02
736.73 Matt Strahm SD 736.75 676.5 713.94 -22.79
737.2 Tony Watson SF 603.75 678.73 723.53 -13.67
737.52 Kyle Zimmer KC 681.25 685.09 716.76 -20.76
738.08 Kolby Allard TEX 749.25 738.05 713.63 -24.45
739.55 Trevor Richards TB NA 743.27 733.08 -6.47
739.89 Felix Hernandez ATL NA NA 750.33 10.44
740.17 Evan Marshall CWS 589 621.82 669.67 -70.5
740.38 Buck Farmer DET NA 744.36 748.98 8.6
740.53 Will Harris WAS 677.75 705.95 693.45 -47.08
740.77 Matt Magill SEA NA NA 749.47 8.7
740.83 Jakob Junis KC NA 746.64 745.51 4.68
740.88 George Kirby SEA NA 743.82 725.55 -15.33
740.95 Bryan Abreu HOU 723 718.36 718.41 -22.54
741.02 Miguel Yajure PIT NA NA 744.75 3.73
741.29 Touki Toussaint ATL 740 729.55 739.78 -1.51
741.33 Taylor Williams SD NA NA 750.12 8.79
741.41 Erick Fedde WAS NA 738.09 739.47 -1.94
742 Adam Plutko CLE 711.25 716.68 734.02 -7.98
742.52 David Robertson PHI NA NA 748.06 5.54
742.58 Thomas Szapucki NYM NA 742.05 745.67 3.09
743.45 Burch Smith OAK NA 750.55 744.69 1.24
743.62 Anthony Kay TOR 716.5 726.73 744.82 1.2
743.92 Jorge Guzman MIA NA 748.45 NA NA
743.95 Justin Verlander HOU NA NA 747.57 3.62
744.47 Tyler Ivey HOU NA 743.86 742 -2.47
744.52 Max Meyer MIA NA NA 748.2 3.68
744.77 Cole Sulser BAL NA 736.73 743.45 -1.32
744.98 Wil Crowe PIT NA NA 745.35 0.37
745.09 Justin Topa MLW NA 747.95 750.67 5.58
745.09 Hunter Greene CIN NA 740.77 746.65 1.56
745.41 James Hoyt MIA NA NA 745.29 -0.12
745.52 Reid Detmers LAA NA 738.32 743.75 -1.77
745.77 Jordan Yamamoto MIA NA NA 750.98 5.21
745.79 Jimmy Nelson LAD NA NA 746.96 1.17
745.92 Brooks Raley HOU 740.5 750.86 734.43 -11.49
746.02 Homer Bailey MIN 712 696.68 717.71 -28.31
746.09 Ryan Brasier BOS 708.75 739.18 732.22 -13.87
746.14 Jon Duplantier ARZ NA 742.55 738.86 -7.28
746.15 Asa Lacy KC NA 739.05 NA NA
746.39 Braxton Garrett MIA 745 728.86 726.49 -19.9
746.44 Michael King NYY NA 739.5 706.86 -39.58
746.56 Grayson Rodriguez BAL NA 740.68 743.76 -2.8
746.64 Jason Adam CHC NA NA 748 1.36
746.76 Blake Cederlind PIT 747 737.64 748.33 1.57
746.86 Drew Rasmussen MLW 740 733.09 744.49 -2.37
747.06 Bruce Zimmermann BAL NA NA 748.53 1.47
747.09 Cory Abbott CHC 691 729.55 725.2 -21.89
747.12 Jeff Samardzija SF NA 736.05 750.2 3.08
747.15 Yonny Chirinos TB 725.75 709.91 NA NA
747.18 Mike Leake ARZ NA 750.64 747.88 0.7
747.21 Matt Liberatore STL NA 719.23 724.27 -22.94
747.33 Michael Feliz PIT NA 747.5 747.24 -0.09
747.42 Ian Kennedy KC NA 743.14 NA NA
747.5 Gio Gonzalez CWS NA NA 746.57 -0.93
747.59 Connor Seabold BOS NA NA
747.68 Joe Palumbo TEX NA NA 746.75 -0.93
747.71 Michael Baumann BAL NA NA 750.35 2.64
747.76 Johan Oviedo STL NA 724.18 742.61 -5.15
747.77 Anthony Misiewicz SEA NA 745.77 740.16 -7.61
748 Taylor Clarke ARZ 703 719.73 739.84 -8.16
748.05 Jarlin Garcia SF NA 750.77 747.61 -0.44
748.09 Shaun Anderson SF NA 750.59 748.75 0.66
748.17 Miguel Castro NYM NA 744.32 749.76 1.59
748.2 Jorge Alcala MIN 704.75 744.23 695.88 -52.32
748.33 Cody Ponce PIT NA NA 749.67 1.34
748.36 Grant Holmes OAK NA NA 740.67 -7.69
748.44 Devin Smeltzer MIN NA 727.27 736.29 -12.15
748.47 Aaron Loup TB NA NA 750.53 2.06
748.55 Sam Delaplane SEA NA 748.27 741.67 -6.88
748.61 Duane Underwood Jr. CHC NA NA 749.73 1.12
748.92 Ethan Small MLW NA 745.68 749.98 1.06
749.11 Zac Lowther BAL NA NA 750.18 1.07
749.12 Shohei Ohtani LAA 206.25 238.05 255.9 -493.22
749.17 Carl Edwards Jr. SEA 750.5 750.45 NA NA
749.2 Luis Gil NYY NA NA 750.94 1.74
749.21 Scott Moss CLE 737 749.68 748.24 -0.97
749.24 Lewis Thorpe MIN NA NA 750.71 1.47
749.27 Nick Tropeano NYM 708.5 723.18 749.29 0.02
749.27 Ken Giles TOR NA NA 745.45 -3.82
749.36 Chris Devenski HOU NA NA
749.36 Cam Bedrosian LAA NA 739.23 750.98 1.62
749.42 Caleb Ferguson LAD NA NA 748.53 -0.89
749.53 Trevor Cahill SF NA 737.05 748.61 -0.92
749.67 Darren O’Day ATL NA NA 750.55 0.88
749.7 Grant Dayton ATL NA NA 750.94 1.24
749.74 Brandon Bielak HOU NA 746.55 750.78 1.04
749.77 Ryne Stanek HOU NA NA 750.86 1.09
749.85 DL Hall BAL NA NA 747.88 -1.97
749.88 Kyle Nelson CLE NA 744.68 NA NA
749.91 Chris Rodriguez LAA NA 746.45 749.31 -0.6
749.91 Tucker Davidson ATL NA NA 748.37 -1.54
749.92 Jordan Weems OAK NA 735.14 739.27 -10.65
749.95 Yency Almonte COL NA 741.09 749.39 -0.56
749.97 Cody Stashak MIN NA 746.36 745.78 -4.19
750.03 Zack Thompson STL NA NA 749.51 -0.52
750.05 Adonis Medina PHI NA 750.95 748.25 -1.8
750.08 Jonathan Stiever CWS NA NA 749.31 -0.77
750.09 Joe Kelly LAD NA 748.5 747.76 -2.33
750.14 Tyler Zuber KC NA 745.82 750.47 0.33
750.29 Tyson Ross DET NA 749.73 NA NA
750.3 J.B. Bukauskas ARZ NA NA 748.02 -2.28
750.32 Austin Pruitt HOU NA NA 744.25 -6.07
750.39 Emerson Hancock SEA NA NA 750.76 0.37
750.39 Chasen Shreve NYM NA NA 750.69 0.3
750.45 Jorge Lopez BAL NA NA
750.45 Brad Peacock HOU 745.25 745.73 749.69 -0.76
750.45 Shane Baz TB 718.75 728.41 741.04 -9.41
750.47 Jackson Rutledge WAS NA NA 750.51 0.04
750.48 Sean Newcomb ATL 737.75 748.18 750.53 0.05
750.58 Cade Cavalli WAS 743 737.59 750.92 0.34
750.64 Jay Groome BOS NA 748.95 745.47 -5.17
750.67 Eli Morgan CLE NA NA 750.92 0.25
750.67 Sam Selman SF NA 748.77 740.92 -9.75
750.68 Carlos Hernandez KC NA 743.05 745.57 -5.11
750.7 Erik Swanson SEA NA 741.18 NA NA
750.7 Luis Cessa NYY 680 747.73 744.16 -6.54
750.71 Angel Rondon STL NA 748.36 NA NA
750.77 Kyle Muller ATL NA NA 749.35 -1.42
750.79 Jhoulys Chacin ATL NA NA 750.88 0.09
750.79 Taylor Widener ARZ NA NA 749.12 -1.67
750.8 Daniel Alvarez NYY NA NA 750.96 0.16
750.83 Tyler Alexander DET NA 742.09 744.49 -6.34
750.85 Trent Thornton TOR NA NA 750.35 -0.5
750.85 Ryan Tepera CHC NA 748.73 745.69 -5.16
750.89 Sean Hjelle SF NA NA 749.57 -1.32
750.89 Sean Reid-Foley TOR NA NA 749.27 -1.62
750.91 Alex Vesia MIA NA NA 745.78 -5.13
750.94 Dan Straily BAL NA 696.64 741.51 -9.43
750.95 Jake Woodford STL NA 745.55 749.14 -1.81
750.97 Junior Guerra ARZ NA 743.23 NA NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
ADP is for pitchers from NFBC Draft Champions leagues between 1/28/21-3/4/21





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Rainmaker
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Rainmaker

Bumgarner was sitting a couple tics above last year on his first ST start, only a matter of time before he starts shooting up…

docgooden85
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docgooden85

I keep seeing ST velocities that seem suspiciously high…

Devern Hansack
Member
Devern Hansack

I can’t remember which article or podcast I got this information from so apologies, but it’s wise to remember that starters may trend higher in early spring training starts since those are generally just a couple innings.

carter
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Member
carter

Also I think basically everyone is working out with driveline/velocity training now, so it makes sense