It’s been about a month and a half since I last checked on the starting pitcher SIERA underperformers and overperformers. So let’s revisit these names to find out if any make good trade targets or opportunities to sell high on.
Last week didn’t have significant projection changes worth reporting, but we’re back this week with news aplenty. The relief pitcher table now looks different; instead of showing percent change, which can over-inflate minute projection changes in actual innings, I’m now calculating remaining innings pitched and selecting for significant swings there.
| Name | Team | Old Remaining GS % | New Remaining GS % | % Chg | Old GS | New GS | Chg | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Pérez | ATL | 8% | 14% | 6% | 4 | 8 | 3 | Stronger hold on rotation spot with Strider out |
| Eury Pérez | MIA | 9% | 15% | 6% | 5 | 8 | 3 | Nearing IL return |
| Shane Drohan | MIL | 2% | 8% | 6% | 1 | 4 | 3 | Pitching like he should stick in the rotation at least a little longer, but Woodruff and Henderson loom |
| Ian Seymour | TBR | 2% | 7% | 5% | 1 | 4 | 3 | Getting some bulk chances with Matz in bullpen |
| Cole Ragans | KCR | 15% | 10% | -5% | 8 | 5 | -3 | Continued uncertainty with arm injury |
| Andrew Painter | PHI | 16% | 11% | -5% | 9 | 6 | -3 | Optioned to minors |
| Spencer Strider | ATL | 17% | 7% | -10% | 9 | 4 | -5 | Elbow inflammation, already on 60-day IL |
| Quinn Priester | MIL | 10% | 0% | -10% | 5 | 0 | -5 | Nerve decompression surgery |
| Chase Dollander | COL | 10% | 0% | -10% | 5 | 0 | -5 | UCL surgery soon |
| Steven Matz | TBR | 15% | 4% | -11% | 8 | 2 | -6 | Moved to bullpen |
| Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | 13% | 0% | -13% | 7 | 0 | -7 | Tommy John surgery |
| Name | Team | Old Remaining RP IP | New Remaining RP IP | Chg | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Kuhnel | MIL | 8 | 32 | 24 | Has gotten hit around since joining Brewers, but big stuff uptick |
| Steven Matz | TBR | 5 | 26 | 21 | Moved to bullpen |
| Kyle Backhus | PHI | 9 | 24 | 15 | Nearing return from IL |
| Matt Gage | SFG | 14 | 29 | 15 | Back from IL |
| Keider Montero | DET | 9 | 23 | 14 | Moved to bullpen with Justin Verlander’s return impending |
| Reiver Sanmartin | SFG | 10 | 23 | 13 | Back from IL |
| Drew Sommers | DET | 19 | 30 | 11 | Quickly becoming an important part of the bullpen mix |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | TOR | 15 | 26 | 11 | Two scoreless outings since joining Blue Jays |
| Victor Vodnik | COL | 23 | 33 | 10 | Back from IL but hasn’t yet looked sharp enough for closing opportunities |
| Mason Barnett | ATH | 22 | 32 | 10 | The A’s keep spinning the closer wheel and it may have landed on Barnett for now |
| Tommy Nance | TOR | 17 | 27 | 10 | Back from IL |
| Cooper Criswell | SEA | 30 | 20 | -10 | Won’t return until after All-Star Break |
| Matt Brash | SEA | 34 | 23 | -11 | Won’t return until after All-Star Break |
| Jovani Morán | BOS | 29 | 17 | -11 | Elbow inflammation |
| Shane Drohan | MIL | 32 | 18 | -14 | Probably sticking in rotation |
| Brenan Hanifee | DET | 30 | 15 | -15 | Optioned to minors |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | MIL | 28 | 0 | -28 | UCL sprain, still working out course of action but return this season seems improbable |
| Drew Pomeranz | LAA | 32 | 0 | -32 | Released |
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.
Papa Clemens would never have been able to do this!
On the Agenda:
We’ve been doing rookie check-ins for hitters and pitchers lately. The most recent rookie hitter check-ins are found here, with an examination of a few other starting pitchers. Rookies have been making an impact on our fantasy squads, and many are deserving of more attention. In this week’s rookie check-in, we’re shifting back to starting pitchers. One starting pitcher has some name value to jump on. Meanwhile, a few others might be undervalued in deeper leagues. We’ll examine these four rookie starting pitchers to figure out whether to buy, sell, or hold them in keeper and dynasty formats.
Rookie catcher Joe Mack is getting hot!
On the Agenda:
Last week, we examined a few starting pitchers who gained stuff and command in May and June. This time, we’re looking at starting pitchers who lost stuff and command since May 1. Pitchers can go through stretches of gaining and losing stuff and command, with these metrics fluctuating over time. The visual below shows the pitchers who lost two points in their Stuff+ and Location+ since May 1.
Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.
Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.
Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.
I fought the law and the law won. And that law is the law of starting pitcher attrition. To make up for losing starters to season-ending injuries and the regression monster, turn to IL stashes.
This article won’t be for all of you, or at least the advice won’t be universally applicable. For those of you with limited IL room, or limited IL slots, this may not be as actionable today. But for most of these pitchers, you can likely hold off a few weeks before others in your league are ready to pull the trigger.
But if you do have room to hold onto a player with a little upside, you are unlikely to be outbid in FAAB at this point. That would be the biggest value add of bringing on these pitchers now — not having to outbid opposing managers once more news is out.
I will run through a handful of pitchers worth considering, sticking to blurbs unless a pitcher excites me to the point of digging in a bit deeper. I will focus on players who are rostered in less than half of CBS and Yahoo leagues (sorry Kris Bubic and Logan Henderson).
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.