Archive for Starting Pitchers

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Note: The game between the Braves and Brewers on Sunday, August 23 is the Little League Classic in Williamsport, PA and Reynaldo López and Logan Henderson are lined up to start that game. Since this special event game has been played in every full season since 2017, there are some park factors for Journey Bank Ballpark, but they’re pretty limited. The park has played pretty neutral for offense over the years so you’re probably fine to start López and Henderson as you would if they were playing in their normal stadium.

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What a moment in the Field of Dreams game!

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Field of Dreams Game
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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The sweeper seems to be a pitch that has taken on a life of its own over the past few seasons. More horizontal movement generated by sacrificing velocity (generally). But maybe it doesn’t have to be that way. With an average velocity a couple ticks below the traditional slider (85-86 mph), a sweeper usually sits at 82 to 83 mph. But it has become a powerful weapon and a popular pitch to add to pitch arsenals for those looking for an added swing-and-miss pitch.

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Putting yourself out there is never easy. To be vulnerable is to be courageous. You are making a bet on your own instincts, your own research, and on your own ability to avoid getting hurt. 

But during the heat of courtship, harsh words may slip out. Your true intentions may be less than pure. Or, more likely as a Rotographs reader, your trade partner is the one who is not pure of heart. They may even be, dare I say, cheating on you. Going behind your back and offering up the goods to any manager with more to give. 

Such is the game we play. 

Heartbreak. Joy. A ring. Regret. There’s no certain outcome at the end of this tug of war we call the love of the game. 

With fall “cuffing” season quickly approaching, those of us who did come together and make trades in the summer are now starting to see if we made the right move. Or if it is all starting to come crashing down. 

For overthinkers, this is a particularly hard time of year.

And in a game full of overthinkers, I find myself right at home. 

This season, I parted ways with Seiya Suzuki at my home league trade deadline, consummating the deal at 11:57pm on deadline night. 

My heart raced with the thrill of the deal. But then, clarity crept in. Without the excitement of the chase, I began to realize exactly what I’d done. 

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It’s nice to see Garrett Mitchell staying healthy and playing this season.

Fun fact: Garrett Mitchell’s middle name is Antony-Charles.

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

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We’ve previously discussed pitchers with better or worse stuff and command. Among pitchers with 10 innings pitched, here’s a look at the notable players who increased their Pitching+ since July 1. Stuff+ and Location+ are included because they guide us toward a deeper look into how or why the player is succeeding or struggling.

The visual below shows the pitchers with a 5-point increase in their Pitching+ since July 1.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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When scanning the starting pitchers who have been performing well on player raters, we often find high-end players mixed with late-round picks or waiver wire options. Whenever we find pitchers performing well or struggling, the first question should be why. Often, breakout performances involve a mixture of luck and skill.

Meanwhile, there could have been a pitch mix change or an actionable adjustment in their profile, which includes their stuff and command grades. Today we’ll look at four starting pitchers having recent success, dive into what could be driving that success, and examine whether it’s sustainable moving forward.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Note: The game between the Phillies and Twins on Thursday, August 13 is the Field of Dreams game in Iowa and Taj Bradley and Aaron Nola are lined up to start that game. There aren’t any reliable park factors for that stadium, but eight home runs were hit there in the 2021 edition of this special event and the dimensions of the ballpark are smaller than average. I’d suggest skipping those two starters next week unless you really need those innings.

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It’s Week 19 of the fantasy baseball season. It’s a sprint now. In redraft leagues, whether it’s a head-to-head or season long format, you want pitchers who are going to pitch, and pitch deep into games. 

At the same time, plenty of teams across the majors are winding down their seasons. If a team sold their stars and spare parts, they probably won’t be letting their young arms go deep into starts anymore. And if a team bought, especially if they bought a rental, expect that player to be used. 

In this article, I’m going to look at starting pitchers on teams that are in competitive playoff races that I think are either worth trading for or worth adding, focusing on some recently moved arms and other players who could potentially be available in your league.  Read the rest of this entry »