Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.
Note: The game between the Braves and Brewers on Sunday, August 23 is the Little League Classic in Williamsport, PA and Reynaldo López and Logan Henderson are lined up to start that game. Since this special event game has been played in every full season since 2017, there are some park factors for Journey Bank Ballpark, but they’re pretty limited. The park has played pretty neutral for offense over the years so you’re probably fine to start López and Henderson as you would if they were playing in their normal stadium.
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
I’m mystified by the Start for Ranger Suarez v Arizona. He’s reached 5 IP once in five starts with very uneven Game Scores. His home ERA is 3.86. The Dbacks have the 2nd best OPS v LHP and 7th best OPS over past 15 games. And yet I see that CBS, too, names him as a “must start 2-start pitcher. And the bonus – I’m a Red Sox fan. I hope you are right. He’s an FA in my 4×4 but I’ve got to think this over. Happy to hear the case for this start.
I think for Ottoneu points leagues in particular, he’s still a strong start, even if he isn’t producing much length in his starts. Since returning from the IL, he’s produced 4.49 Pts/IP and that includes a dud -0.9 point start on August 6.
In a 4×4 or 5×5 league, it’s a much tougher decision to start him because he just isn’t pitching deep enough into games to earn wins or rack up strike outs. In your 4×4 league, I’d avoid him for his start against ARI, but consider him for his second start against SFG.
I’m mystified by the Start for Ranger Suarez v Arizona. He’s reached 5 IP once in five starts with very uneven Game Scores. His home ERA is 3.86. The Dbacks have the 2nd best OPS v LHP and 7th best OPS over past 15 games. And yet I see that CBS, too, names him as a “must start 2-start pitcher. And the bonus – I’m a Red Sox fan. I hope you are right. He’s an FA in my 4×4 but I’ve got to think this over. Happy to hear the case for this start.
I think for Ottoneu points leagues in particular, he’s still a strong start, even if he isn’t producing much length in his starts. Since returning from the IL, he’s produced 4.49 Pts/IP and that includes a dud -0.9 point start on August 6.
In a 4×4 or 5×5 league, it’s a much tougher decision to start him because he just isn’t pitching deep enough into games to earn wins or rack up strike outs. In your 4×4 league, I’d avoid him for his start against ARI, but consider him for his second start against SFG.
much appreciated Jake