So You Made a Trade You Regret

Putting yourself out there is never easy. To be vulnerable is to be courageous. You are making a bet on your own instincts, your own research, and on your own ability to avoid getting hurt. 

But during the heat of courtship, harsh words may slip out. Your true intentions may be less than pure. Or, more likely as a Rotographs reader, your trade partner is the one who is not pure of heart. They may even be, dare I say, cheating on you. Going behind your back and offering up the goods to any manager with more to give. 

Such is the game we play. 

Heartbreak. Joy. A ring. Regret. There’s no certain outcome at the end of this tug of war we call the love of the game. 

With fall “cuffing” season quickly approaching, those of us who did come together and make trades in the summer are now starting to see if we made the right move. Or if it is all starting to come crashing down. 

For overthinkers, this is a particularly hard time of year.

And in a game full of overthinkers, I find myself right at home. 

This season, I parted ways with Seiya Suzuki at my home league trade deadline, consummating the deal at 11:57pm on deadline night. 

My heart raced with the thrill of the deal. But then, clarity crept in. Without the excitement of the chase, I began to realize exactly what I’d done. 

Dealing away Suzuki from an outfield stuffed with Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak, Cole Carrigg, and Kyle Stowers may seem, at first blush, to be justifiable. Especially if the return was for starting pitching in a shallow head-to-head categories league. 

Wipe the fog off of those trade goggles, steamed by the desire to deal, and you start to see that you need to actually bring back players that address a weakness or add to a strength to make it worthwhile. 

I am beginning to fear I dealt for damaged goods. Or at least a man with more than his fair share of baggage and red flags.

Then, Wednesday afternoon, I watched him pitch. Really watched. 

Foster Griffin, the main piece in the deal that brought me back Brady Singer as well, faced off against the Tigers yesterday. 

At the time of the deal, my friend had whispered sweet nothings in my ear, promising that Griffin would return to form, even though there were plenty of signs to the contrary. Over his last two starts prior to Wednesday, including one on our deadline night, the soft-tossing lefty had allowed five or more runs, and two home runs, in each. 

But look how good he had been, my false friend pointed out. Assuaging my fears, he pointed to analysis that mirrored my own. Following the deadline, I felt Griffin would, at the very least, be asked to pitch deep into games for the Guardians, who themselves are in the midst of a playoff run, and who consistently let pitchers like Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams go deep into starts, and have done so for years.

This narrative papered over underlying flaws. The 31-year-old had been seeing his O-Swing% decrease and his Z-Contact% increase in recent starts, signalling a more hittable pitcher who was throwing just as many strikes. 

Despite a serviceable final line on Wednesday, with one earned run allowed over five innings to go along with three strikeouts and a walk, Griffin looked perfectly hittable. Much to my dismay.

Leaving fastballs and cutters at 91mph in the heart of the zone, Griffin looked helpless early, allowing a two-run double with two strikes to Spencer Torkelson, which didn’t count against him due to errors earlier in the inning. But it counted in my heart. A few innings later, Griffin missed his spot with a curveball on the inner half, and Gleyber Torres deposited the ball into the bleachers in left, making it three consecutive starts with a homer allowed for Griffin. 

Griffin was still doing what he’s done all season, mixing seven different offerings at different speeds. But he generated only three whiffs and saw the spin rate on the cutter and four seamer both decline.

This fits into a broader decline narrative, where Griffin has come out of a hot streak in the early part of the summer and into a rough period of regression, as his sterling 3.31 ERA and 1.11 WHIP have spiked of late. 

Is there anything he can do to wash away the regret you feel for shaking hands and dealing for him?

He is 6’3. That’s a start. He has a full time job. He works with his hands. And he has a relatively juicy slate of matchups coming up. Griffin lines up for two starts next week, hosting the hapless Giants in Cleveland before taking on the Rockies in Coors over the weekend. Both of these teams are led by left-handed hitters, who he’s limited to a .178 BAA this season. Assuming he stays on schedule, he and the Guardians will host the Royals the following weekend. 

This is promising. These three teams all rank 19th or worse in the majors in terms of homers, ISO, and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season. His previous three opponents, the Braves, Mets, and Tigers, all had higher wRC+ marks against lefties.

So perhaps the story is one of weathering the post-trade regret that washes over so many of us. 

If your reasoning was sound, and grounded in your team context and gut instinct, let it ride. There’s no use wallowing in what you now see as red flags and reasons not to have made a deal. Be patient, and see if you really did make a mistake. There’s a good chance you didn’t.