Archive for Starting Pitchers

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Note: The game between the Phillies and Twins on Thursday, August 13 is the Field of Dreams game in Iowa and Taj Bradley and Aaron Nola are lined up to start that game. There aren’t any reliable park factors for that stadium, but eight home runs were hit there in the 2021 edition of this special event and the dimensions of the ballpark are smaller than average. I’d suggest skipping those two starters next week unless you really need those innings.

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It’s Week 19 of the fantasy baseball season. It’s a sprint now. In redraft leagues, whether it’s a head-to-head or season long format, you want pitchers who are going to pitch, and pitch deep into games. 

At the same time, plenty of teams across the majors are winding down their seasons. If a team sold their stars and spare parts, they probably won’t be letting their young arms go deep into starts anymore. And if a team bought, especially if they bought a rental, expect that player to be used. 

In this article, I’m going to look at starting pitchers on teams that are in competitive playoff races that I think are either worth trading for or worth adding, focusing on some recently moved arms and other players who could potentially be available in your league.  Read the rest of this entry »

Go, Nando, Go!

Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t reached double-digit homers this season, but is the only hitter with two 465-ft or greater blasts. Keep ’em coming.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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We previously covered several starting pitchers who changed their arm angle in June and July. Let’s follow that up with a few other starting pitchers who have been throwing from different arm angles this season. Arm angles can impact pitch movement profiles, depending on the pitch type.

Besides one near-elite starting pitcher, we’ll examine a few players who have been performing well while showing different arm angles. How have those arm angles impacted pitch movement and usage? Why does it matter?

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Following on from looking at those who have managed to increase the velocity on their four-seamer since the start of the season, it is now time to turn to those losing velocity. Some have not been so fortunate. Whether through wear and tear or potential injuries, these pitchers warrant serious monitoring and potential red flags as we move forward.

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We covered several starting pitchers that have been throwing more fastballs (sinkers and four-seamers) in June and July. Pitch mix changes intrigue me because they can be a concerted effort to make changes or a noisy small sample. Sometimes pitchers command a pitch better, or it’s just the normal fluctuation of pitches across their arsenal, with some thrown more often than others. Let’s examine four more starting pitchers who have been throwing more fastballs in June and July.

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Series Overview

This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to discuss a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who may have seen their perceived value shift recently. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C) with OOPSY DC (ROS).

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Note: Obviously, the trade deadline on Monday will have an effect on the projected starters for many teams next week. If you’re rostering a starter who has been rumored to be on the move ahead of the deadline (Skubal, Detmers, May, Castillo, etc.), be ready to pivot based on wherever they land.

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Where there’s a Winn, there’s a way, or so those who didn’t hear it correctly say. But a Winn is not always winning.

Case in point: Alex Bregman’s two-run double in the 10th inning to defeat Winn’s birds and have outs fall into the Webb of Jacob. There were Crooks at the stadium concession, hoping to steal the last Nootbaar, but they were instantly subdued by Aaron Sir Vale in bottom of the 10th, engulfing flames of pride in the Windy City as their Cub runneth over, standing atop the NL Wild Card standings.

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

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With the end of the season in sight, it’s time to kick season-long strategies out of the driver’s seat. Slow and steady may win the race if you’re a tortoise, but in fantasy baseball, it’s either sprint or switch over to football. And who even likes football?

When I say sprint, I mean sprint while throwing any and all things that could weigh you down over your shoulder. Especially in 12-teamers and shallow leagues, this needs to be the mindset. Small sample size holding you back? There’s only a small sample size left! Things are going to be random. It’s getting wiggy. 

Hitters have so many days to frustrate you. Owning Gunnar Henderson this season has been like wading into a pool with a freshly made pizza. Like sure, there’s moments you may enjoy, like the pepperoni-and-pineapple sweet 3-5 game with a bomb. But then your hands get wet, you can barely stand, let alone eat your pizza, and Gunnar is in the midst of a 3-43 stretch. Without a steal. 

You get the picture. 

But today, I’m going to focus on starting pitchers. Relievers are more volatile, and if you’re chasing saves in Roto, best of luck and look to Hogan Harris, I guess? But starting pitchers are truly the kings of the small sample size, especially when the calendar inevitably flips to August. 

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