Starting Pitcher Risers in Pitching+ From July and Early August

We’ve previously discussed pitchers with better or worse stuff and command. Among pitchers with 10 innings pitched, here’s a look at the notable players who increased their Pitching+ since July 1. Stuff+ and Location+ are included because they guide us toward a deeper look into how or why the player is succeeding or struggling.

The visual below shows the pitchers with a 5-point increase in their Pitching+ since July 1.

Since we discussed Brandon Pfaadt, Bryce Elder, and several others in previous articles, we won’t revisit them. That said, it’s positive to find the underlying metrics and stuff models to support a pitcher’s outcomes. We’ll examine what has changed within a pitcher’s profile, especially their stuff and command, since Pitching+ includes those metrics.

Brayan Bello, P, Red Sox

After Bello started seven of his first nine games, the Red Sox began using him as a bulk reliever, averaging nearly four innings per game (3.2). Since July, Bello has been a bulk reliever, allowing one or fewer runs, including four scoreless outings from an earned run standpoint. He has been commanding his pitches better since July, with a 117 Location+, a 15-point jump from before July 1. 

Specifically, Bello is commanding his fastballs (four-seam and sinker) significantly better since July. That’s evident in Bello’s 129 Location+ via the four-seamer and a 135 Location+ from the sinker. Let’s examine the sinker because he hardly throws his four-seamer (6.6%). Bello has been locating his sinker higher in the zone since July, about two inches higher compared to earlier in the season. 

The biggest location change has been against left-handed hitters. Bello is locating his sinker over five inches higher in the zone since July against lefties. When Bello leaves the sinker in the heart of the zone, opposing lefties crush it. That’s evident in Bello’s sinker results (.360 wOBA, .390 xwOBA), which are the worst of his career against left-handed hitters. 

Bello’s sinker has been losing 1-2 inches of arm-side fade over the past few seasons, further aligning with the lower Stuff+ grades from 109 (2024), 104 (2025), and 101 (2026)+. Bello’s sinker losing arm-side fade could lead to more hard contact, especially against left-handed hitters.

As a bulk reliever, there has been a slight change in pitch mix, including Bello’s cutter usage to 13-15% in July and August. However, Bello’s cutter usage has fluctuated throughout the season, so maybe it’s variance, since the cutter’s season-long percentage is 15.4%. That said, Bello’s cutter is one of his worst pitches from a results standpoint (.478 wOBA, .454 xwOBA), yet it leads his arsenal with a 24% swinging-strike rate. 

Bello’s cutter can be volatile. It’s wild to see a pitch generate plenty of whiffs and tons of hard contact. He commands the cutter well with a 113 Location+, which leads his arsenal. Given the high swinging-strike rate and poor results against the cutter, we would expect those to regress at some point, possibly leading to fewer whiffs and better outcomes. 

As a bulk reliever from July on, Bello boasts a 20.2% K-BB%, 118 Location+, and a 95 Stuff+. He has been fortunate by limiting BABIP (.241) and stranding runners (91.4%), supporting his quality ratios (0.79 ERA and 0.79 WHIP) as a bulk reliever since July 1. It’s a small sample of 22.2 innings since July 1, though this might be a good role for Bello since he has performed more like a streamer throughout his career. 

The tricky part is predicting when Bello will be deployed as a bulk reliever, since the Red Sox have a healthy five-starter rotation. Bello is a better option in daily moves leagues, though he could be streamed for ratios and wins in deeper weekly formats, rostered in 9% of 12-team NFBC leagues. 

Christian Scott, SP, Mets

Scott has been showing significantly better command since July, with a 106 Location+, up over 10 points from before July (95 Location+). Before July, Scott’s four-seamer (100) and cutter (100) were his only pitches with a Location+ at 100 or above. However, Scott’s four-seamer (112) and cutter (110) command jumped by 10 points in Location+ since July 1.

Scott has been throwing his cutters higher in the zone against both sides of the plate since July, though that began in June. Specifically, Scott was commanding his cutter over five inches higher in the zone. Scott tends to locate his cutter high and inside toward left-handed hitters, a way to induce weak contact. 

The cutter has been his best pitch against left-handed hitters, allowing a .202 wOBA (.267 xwOBA). He has been throwing more cutters (20.8%) and sweepers (16.5%) against left-handed hitters. Scott’s cutter pairs well with his approach against lefties. He throws his four-seamer (48.4%), cutter, and sweeper, which accounts for over 85% of his arsenal against left-handed hitters.

Let’s touch on Scott’s sweeper, since it’s unusual to see a sweeper fare so well against opposite-handed hitters. First off, it’s different from the sweeper he introduced in 2024. Scott’s sweeper moves over three more inches toward his glove side with 2.5 additional inches of downward movement this season, as seen in the induced movement profiles below. The sweeper allows a .281 wOBA (.202 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. That’s slightly better than the league norm (.318 wOBA, .307 xwOBA) on sweepers thrown to lefties from right-handed pitchers.

The main concerns would be health and how deep he pitches into games. Scott has thrown six innings once, and four other games when he threw more than five innings. However, Scott’s strikeout skills and stuff make us optimistic. If Scott’s continues to command his pitches better, as we’ve seen lately, that will further unlock the ceiling outcomes paired with his above-average stuff (107 Stuff+). Scott should be more highly rostered in Yahoo leagues (37%), though the NFBC market (95%) isn’t sleeping on him. 

Peter Lambert, SP, Astros

Lambert has been somewhat of a revelation for the Astros, especially after losing Framber Valdez to the Tigers and Hunter Brown to a shoulder injury earlier in the season. After four seasons with the Rockies, Lambert pitched in the NPB before returning to throw the most MLB innings of his career when quality ratios (3.09 ERA and 1.15 WHIP) this season.

Lambert’s command went from slightly below average (98 Location+) to slightly above average (102) since July. Specifically, Lambert’s four-seam and slider command improved by 4-5 points since July. Meanwhile, Lambert’s sinker Location+ was better (99) since July from 87 earlier in the season. When looking at the monthly pitch locations, he has been throwing his four-seamer slightly higher in the zone by 2-3 inches on average.  

However, opposing hitters can hit the four-seamer hard, especially when he doesn’t command it well. Lambert’s four-seam has 17-18 inches of induced vertical break, but he lacks extension (19th percentile). Since Lambert’s four-seamer moves 8.2 inches toward his arm side, it tends to fare slightly better against left-handed hitters (.279 wOBA, .317 xwOBA) compared to righties (.322 wOBA, .334 xwOBA), as it moves away from them. 

Lambert was struggling to command his changeup before July with a 92 Location+, which skyrocketed to 118 since July. When Lambert locates the changeup well, he throws them low and away from left-handed hitters, leading to whiffs and weak contact. 

That’s notable because Lambert’s changeup has been his best pitch for whiffs, with an 18% swinging-strike rate, as one of his best pitches against left-handed hitters. Lambert’s changeup allows a .223 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters, his second-best pitch behind the slider (.169 wOBA, .237 xwOBA) among his pitches he throws 10% or more. It’s worth highlighting that Lambert’s changeup fares well against right-handed hitters, leading to quality outcomes (.249 wOBA, .164 xwOBA) while throwing it 13.5% of the time.

Lambert’s 3.43 xERA is the most optimistic ERA estimator, indicating he can generate weak contact to sustain his success. Even if Lambert’s ERA regressed closer to his 4.17 SIERA, that would be a reasonable expectation. Over the next few weeks, Lambert faces the Mariners, Angels, and Yankees, then a two-start week against the White Sox and Diamondbacks. That’s a favorable schedule for Lambert, especially since he has been commanding his pitches better. Expect Lambert to go from 80% rostered in NFBC 12-teamers to nearly 100% soon.

Quick Hits

Max Scherzer has seen a massive jump in his Pitching+ since July, though it’s a small sample of just three starts after battling multiple injuries this season. Scherzer has been commanding his pitches well with a 112 Location+, especially the four-seamer (115), curveball (115), and changeup (126) since July. For context, Scherzer had a 98 Location+ with his four-seamer (107) and changeup (105) as the only two pitches with a Location+ above 100.

As Scherzer ages, he can outpitch some of the underlying metrics if he commands multiple pitches well. However, Scherzer hasn’t given us quality ratios since the brief with the Rangers in 2024. Scherzer’s changeup (.235 wOBA, .227 xwOBA) has been performing well against lefties. However, Scherzer’s four-seamer (.434 wOBA, .405 xwOBA) and curveball (.395 wOBA, .348 xwOBA) have been hit hard against left-handed hitters. Regression will hit, but Scherzer’s four-seamer has been fortunate and performing well against right-handed hitters, given his .165 wOBA (.302 xwOBA) this season. 

Scherzer is a risky bet to stream in deeper leagues, though he could be a desperation option against the Royals, Guardians, and Rays in the next few weeks.

With the Brewers adding Dustin May via trade and Kyle Harrison returning from an injury, Robert Gasser might be battling for a rotation spot. The Brewers currently project to have a six-man rotation. However, Gasser has shown a slight increase in Stuff+ (3-point increase) and a significant jump in Location+ (over 9 points) since July. Gasser has been locating his sinker (103), cutter (110), and changeup (100) significantly better since July from a Location+ perspective.

From a Stuff+ standpoint, Gasser’s four-seamer (109), sinker (107), and slider (128) have led his arsenal since July, though it’s within 5-7 points of his season-long averages. The four-seamer has been Gasser’s best pitch against right-handed hitters, allowing a .314 wOBA (.285 xwOBA) this season.

Meanwhile, Gasser’s sinker was his second-best pitch from a results standpoint, giving up a .264 wOBA (.341 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. The sinker trails his four-seamer (.179 wOBA, .190 xwOBA) from a results standpoint, as one of the four pitches he throws 10% or more. For context, Gasser tosses his four-seamer 19.1% of the time against left-handed hitters. 

It’s a good process to trust pitchers who rely on their stuff like Gasser, with the potential to improve their command, which we’ve seen since July. Gasser’s 4.15 xERA and 4.15 SIERA, with his above-average overall stuff grade, suggest he can flash strikeout upside. The main concern is whether Gasser will remain in the starting rotation.

He is rostered in 12% of NFBC 12-teamers, with some concerning matchups against the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, and Cubs in the following weeks. Gasser’s stuff makes us optimistic, though he might be more of a bench streamer in deeper leagues.