Let’s finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that resulted in an ugly 5.68 ERA, he did manage to post a superb 14.1% SwStk%, giving us hope that he would eventually break out thanks to a strikeout rate surge. Let’s find out what happened.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:
Garrett Whitlock (300 ADP)
With the recent news that the 26-year-old righty will be in the Red Sox rotation, I decided to take a look since his ADP is just at 300. Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, I reviewed six starting pitchers whose ERA Pod Projections were significantly lower than their Steamer projections. Now let’s flip to the list of pitchers I highlighted as having ERA downside.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:
Tylor Megill (310 ADP)
I’m a little surprised to see Megill being taken so early because of his 5.13 ERA, three IL trips (biceps, shoulder, COVID), and his final six appearances coming as a reliever. Fantasy managers must be concentrating on his 3.35 xFIP, 9.7 K/9, and 96-mph fastball. Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s continue reviewing the results of my Pod vs Steamer series by switching over to starting pitchers. Today, I’ll review my list of six ERA upside guys, or those whose Pod Projections were significantly better than their Steamer forecasts. Leaguewide starting pitcher ERA was at its lowest since 2014, so a list of pitchers with ERA upside should look better.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:
The 30-year-old Walker is a fine, steady pitcher with a career 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an 8.1 K/9. He hasn’t deviated from those numbers over his career including this season’s 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9.
There doesn’t seem to be any sign of his skills degrading. While his fastball velocity was down compared to 2021 (94.2 mph to 93.5 mph) it was still higher than in both 2019 (93.2) and 2020 (93.3). His 2.6 BB/9 was his lowest since 2016 (2.5 BB/9). His first and second-half K%-BB% was almost unchanged (13.2% to 13.6%).
He’s a nice stable accumulator, especially if he’s on a decent team, like the Mets last season, where he can end up with 12 Wins again. Since he’s a free agent, the team he signs with will determine most of his 2023 value. There is just not much upside or downside with him.
2023 Drafts are now in full force over at the National Fantasy Baseball Contest, which has become an industry leader in terms of research for average draft position (ADP) data. NFBC ADP is especially useful because it involves only paid contests and many of the top players in the world play on the platform. As of now, there have been 11 completed drafts on the site with many more being done as we speak. Most of these drafts are 15-team draft champions leagues which are 50-round draft and hold formats. After completing one of those drafts myself recently and looking at the ADP, here are some of my thoughts on how the early ADP is shaping up. Read the rest of this entry »
Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.
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10/28/22
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REVIEWING PAUL’S SP RANKS
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How do you really know how well a pitcher’s fastball will perform before the season starts? You don’t. You basically just make an educated guess. Choosing good fastballs from the previous year seems to be a good way to go. But, choosing changeups that performed well in the past can bite you. While it may seem silly to get this micro, this niche, it can be a lot of fun to make picks before the season begins, and then forget about them. There’s no IL, no waiver claims, and no bench to ride. It’s just your preseason picks and the ever-rolling season and when it ends, you get to look back and either ask yourself, “What was I thinking?”, or, you get to puff your chest out and spend the winter months assuring yourself that you are a pVal prediction wizard. Pitching coaches should really be calling you when spring training kicks off again. Let’s take a look at where each of us FanGraphs contingent pVal competition participants finished out the 2022 season. As a reminder, here are all the picks you can make, provided to us by our friends at Pitcher List.
