Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 12/18/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Cristian Javier (+15.37)- It is not surprising for Javier to rise after a fantastic season and a huge postseason. While he bounced between being a starter and a reliever in 2022, he should be a full time starter in 2023 and after throwing 161.2 innings between the regular and postseason, there is no reason he can’t throw 160-170 innings if not more. I think there are questions if he can keep all the gains he made in 2023 with the walk rate and home run rate, but even if he regresses, he can still be a very valuable piece. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Zack Wheeler (-8.37)- Wheeler is dropping but I think that has more to do with relievers in his area rising so much than it does with him. In spite of an injury riddled 2022, Wheeler was fantastic. I think the question becomes: how many innings do we get from Wheeler, but considering he threw 35.2 great innings in the postseason, there is no reason to think he won’t be healthy heading into 2023. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Nick Lodolo (+12.21)- Lodolo’s risse is not surprising as he is a top prospect that was pretty impressive in his rookie season. He did a good job at limiting walks and home runs while striking out a ton of batters. However, I have some concerns that the home runs could be an issue in Cincinnati and there won’t be much win potential on the Reds. While the upside is huge, I don’t think the price is factoring in the potential downside. 

Jordan Montgomery (+18.21)- Montgomery is rising after a career best in the ratios and a pretty stellar line in both New York and St. Louis. He has a fantastic park, amazing defense behind him and a good division to pitch against. I love Montgomery, but he doesn’t have the highest of ceilings so if his price continues to rise it may become too expensive. 

Grayson Rodriguez (+17.9)- We have been waiting on Rodriguez for what feels like forever. He has been dominant in the minors and there is a lot of reason to believe he can be very good in the Majors considering his pedigree and how friendly Camden now plays, but I wonder when he will be up. There are incentives for teams to bring up their best prospects, but even though the Orioles lack impact starting pitching, they have a fair amount of depth and they may decide that an extra year of service time outweighs the potential rewards of starting his clock at the beginning of the season. That being said, I am a believer in the talent. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Freddy Peralta (-16.31)- Talent is not in question for Peralta, but he has struggled to stay on the mound. Outside of 2021, he does not have a season in which he has thrown 100 innings at the Major League level. If healthy, he can be a #2 with #1 upside, but there is a ton of risk. 

Chris Sale (-18.84)- Sale has similar risk to Peralta. He missed almost all of 2022 with multiple injuries after missing all of 2020 and most of 2021 with Tommy John surgery. That being said, when he was on the mound in 2021, he looked good and the injuries from this season are pretty fluky. I think Sale offers a fair amount of risk, but also a ton of value if he looks healthy in spring. 

Lance McCullers Jr. (-19.37)- McCullers was great while he was on the mound, but once again struggled to log many innings in 2022. While he threw a career high of 162 innings, he previously had never thrown 130 and it is hard to project him to throw more than that considering his history. He also struggles with walks at times which can get him into trouble. He is a bit too risky for my tastes. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Koudai Senga (+71.74)- It is not surprising to see Senga rise a ton after signing a long term deal with the Mets. I think he has the potential to be a really interesting pitcher but there are some concerns. He has issues with command at points and may struggle to adjust to going every five days as Japanese teams only pitch their starters once a week. That being said, he threw 148 innings in 22 starts so there is reason to believe that he will be able to go deep enough for wins. I think if the price gets too high, I will be out, but now is the time to buy if you want some shares. 

Justin Steele (+24.36)- Steele is rising after a quietly stellar season. He lowered his walk rate and his home run rate while not sacrificing too much of the swing and miss. He appears to be a lock for the rotation and could post 140-150 innings, but the question will be if the WHIP will kill you. He has put up two straight seasons of 1.35 WHIP and with his zone contact and walk rates being as high as they are, I don’t know how much it will come down even with an improved infield defense with Dansby Swanson in tow. He is still priced pretty well, but if he rises too far, I will pass. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Michael Kopech (-20.89)- Kopech is falling after struggling to stay healthy again. When he was on the mound in 2021, he looked like the elite prospect we remember him being, but he just never seemed right after May in 2022. If he returns to the mound healthy, he could regain the form that could make him an ace, but reports so far says the rehab has not been progressing well, so I am avoiding him for now. 

Tyler Mahle (-21.11)- Mahle is falling after finishing the season on the IL with a shoulder injury. There hasn’t been much news on Mahle which is a bit concerning though the fact the Twins have not really added much in terms of pitching may signal they aren’t extremely worried. I love Mahle’s talent now that he is out of Cincy, but until we know what his status is, it may be best to avoid him entirely. 

Ranger Suárez (-28.9)- I don’t really understand Suarez’s drop here. Not only did he have a pretty good 2022, he was great in the postseason giving him 170 innings between both the regular season and playoffs and that is pretty great considering he had a slow start to the season with Visa issues. There isn;t a ton of strikeout upside, but he can be a valuable mid-rotation piece in fantasy if you already have strikeouts built up. 

 

Others of Note

David Peterson (+24.1)- I think Peterson’s rise will be short lived after the Senga signing. Peterson now looks to be the odd man out of the rotation along with Tylor Megill. However, while I expect the ADP to drop, I also think he will find himself in the rotation at some point. The Mets have a lot of risk in the rotation and there has been talk about the Mets trading Carrasco. If Peterson ends up in the rotation, I think he could be a really strong fantasy asset and I will take some shots just in case he finds himself in sooner rather than later. 

Zach Eflin (+37.69)- Eflin is rising after signing with Tampa Bay and for good reason. Tampa has a great track record with pitchers and they gave him a long term deal. Eflin was up and down in 2022, but if you look at the box scores, it was mostly a few bad starts. The question is whether or not he can stay healthy. The price is still low enough that he is worth taking a shot on. 

Noah Syndergaard (-23.94)- Syndergaard’s price is not reflective of the fact he signed with the Dodgers. He was drooping because he didn’t have a team yet and he struggled with velocity in 2022. The team issue is solved, but I am really worried about the velocity. Typically, velocity is one of the first things that return after Tommy John, but that has not been the case for Thor. If we see him throwing 97 in spring, then maybe I will buy back in, but until that, I can’t even buy into the Dodger magic in pitcher reclamation projects.