Jameson Taillon To Soon Learn That Deep Dish <<< Thin Crust Pizza

Yesterday, the Cubs officially signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year, $68 million contract, after agreeing to such a deal earlier in the month. In the never-ending debate over which style of pizza is better, Taillon will now have the chance to become an expert in Chicago’s signature deep dish version, after spending two years noshing on New York’s thin crust pizza. We all know which style he’ll deem superior, right? RIGHT? So how might the switch in home park affect his results? Let’s consult the park factors and find out.

Well this wasn’t exactly how I expected the factor competitions to go! Overall, this is definitely a bit more of a mixed bag than I expected, especially given the perception of Yankee Stadium as such a hitter’s haven.

Let’s begin with the hit type factors. Both parks were exactly neutral for singles. Taillon has posted better than league average BABIP marks each of the last three seasons, with no mark higher than .276. Since joining the Yankees, he has posted a .272 mark at home, and .278 mark away. How much of the gap is explained by the home field bonus or the park is anyone’s guess. But it’s certainly not due to any sort of singles suppression.

Moving onto the rest of the non-home run hit type factors, we find a big difference in doubles factors. While Wrigley slightly reduced doubles, Yankee significantly reduced them. That should modestly impact BABIP, though obviously not to the same degree as it would had the hit type been singles. So given the doubles factor difference, Taillon should see a marginal increase in projected BABIP. The triples factors are even further apart. Wrigley sported the fourth highest triples factor in baseball this season, while Yankee was fifth lowest. That’s quite the spread! Luckily, triples occur so infrequently, that an extra triple or two isn’t going to make much of a difference.

We now get to home runs, which is the one factor I was certain Taillon would benefit from the move. Wrigley played exactly neutral, while Yankee inflated home runs. That’s no surprise. Amazingly, Taillon has been remarkably consistent in his HR/FB rate throughout his career. He has posted a mark between 11.7% and 12.9% in each of the last four seasons. Surprisingly, he posted a lower HR/FB rate at Yankee Stadium than in away parks over the last two seasons. That doesn’t negate the fact that his HR/FB rate forecast should still decrease with the park switch. Since he became a fly ball pitcher upon becoming a Yankee, a reduced HR/FB rate would really help here, as his HR/9 as jumped well above 1.0.

Next, we move to the strikeout and walk factors, which are so close that the park switch isn’t going to make much of a difference. After a career high strikeout rate in 2021, Taillon’s strikeout rate dropped to the second lowest of his career, driven by a decline in SwStk% to single digits for the first time since 2017. Once again, he posted a meaningfully higher strikeout rate at home as a Yankee. Though his strikeout rate was unimpressive this season, he did post his lowest walk rate since his 2016 debut. His home/road splits were closer than for his strikeout rate, but he still did post a lower walk rate at home.

We now head on over to the batted ball type factors. Wrigley both inflates line drives and suppresses pop-ups, both of which are bad news for BABIP. It’s interesting then that the singles factor is neutral and not higher, as BABIP is partially fueled by line drive and pop-up rates. On the other hand, Yankee suppressed line drives and increased pop-ups, and yet it has a neutral singles factor too! Surprises abound. Taillon endured a string of worse than league average LD% marks from 2017-2019, but has posted a league average mark or better in the two seasons since. He has also posted career best IFFB% marks the last two years, which paired with his high FB%, have results in lots of pop-ups. Oddly, Taillon posted a much higher IFFB% in away parks while with the Yankees, despite a park factor that increases pop-ups.

Finally, we arrive at the summary factors, FIP and Basic. After all that, Wrigley is slightly pitcher friendly for FIP, versus Yankee which is slightly hitter friendly, but both sport identical Basic factors! So this is another example of similar overall performance, but a different path to getting there.

Solely based on the park factors, Taillon’s projection should experience a slight increase in BABIP, but a reduction in HR/FB rate. The Yankees are also projected for a significantly higher total Fld rating than the Cubs according to our Depth Charts, so that BABIP could head even higher than what just the park factors dictate. Last, the Yankees figure to run a significantly better offense so his win potential gets knocked down a bit. So overall, I think Taillon’s fantasy value takes a marginal hit.