Last 30 Day Starting Pitchers Stuff+ Gainers & Decliners — Jul 7, 2026

I last reviewed starting pitcher Stuff+ gainers and decliners about a month ago, so it’s time to take another gander at each group.

Let’s start with the starting pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched over the last 30 days who have enjoyed the biggest Stuff+ gains.

Ryan Weathers appearing atop the list is pretty funny, particularly for his owners, as he’s posted a 5.64 ERA during the last 30 days. However, the skills have been good, as his SIERA sits at a much more respectable 3.67. Oddly, his 24.8% strikeout rate during the period is actually lower than his mark through June 5 when his Stuff+ was meaningfully lower. Still, he has finally been able to translate his new premium velocity into strikeouts, which he has failed to do the last two years after gaining at least a mile an hour on his fastball, which was already up over a mile an hour from his debut. I would expect some better luck moving forward, but he has always struggled with HR/FB rate and his xERA is actually higher than his actual mark.

It’s pretty cool to see Logan Gilbert’s game log with a Stuff+ that hasn’t dipped to even an average of 100 all season long. Every single game he has posted at least a mark of 101 and he’s been at least 111 over his last four starts. Previously, he had only reached or exceeded 111 three times, so this is quite the roll. Surprisingly, he has significantly increased his four-seamer usage, while primarily cutting down on his splitter and curve. His splitter is by far his best pitch, but his four-seamer has sported at least a 104 Stuff+ in his last four starts after only reaching 105 once previously. Sure enough, his velocity has suddenly spiked, jumping over a mile an hour three starts ago, and then jumping another small notch in his last two starts. He was obviously already top tier without the increased velocity, but if this holds surge, he’s going to be even more valuable.

Merrill Kelly’s Stuff+ has gone from bad to just not good, which is much needed for a guy all the way down at a 13.7% strikeout rate. He’s never owned quality stuff, but at least he’s back to where he’s been the last couple of years. Maybe his strikeouts return and he’s back to at least being streamable in shallower leagues and not a ratio killer in deep leagues.

Chris Sale, a 121 Stuff+ over the last 30 days, at age 37. My gosh! The craziest thing is his four-seam velocity is at a career high!!!! I had no idea, and that’s just really insane.

So, apparently the injury was good for Tarik Skubal, as his Stuff+ is now better than ever! In fact, he averaged his highest velocity of the season two starts ago and his third highest in his last start. His first three starts after returning from the IL were between 123 and 124 in Stuff+, only lower than a season high 127 he recorded early in the season. It’s weird seeing his ERA over 3.00, but that’s due to a slightly lower strikeout rate and a shocking 17% HR/FB rate. Oh, and a LOB% that has tumbled from 80%+ to a more league average level. He’s still easily my top pitcher, though Jacob Misiorowski is doing his best to convince me otherwise.

After underperforming his SIERA and xERA all season, Jesús Luzardo has allowed two runs once, and just one run four times in his last five starts to bring his ERA down below his mark last year. The luck is finally evening out! It surely helps to enjoy even better stuff as his Stuff+ has been elite the last 30 days. Both his SIERA and xERA suggest there’s still more room for ERA improvement, but perhaps that .337 BABIP isn’t going to come down as much as hoped considering the entire Phillies pitching staff has the second highest BABIP allowed in baseball and they are fifth from last in OAA.

I never realized that Anthony Kay, he of the lowly 17.6% strikeout rate, had an above average Stuff+. I wonder why he hasn’t been able to translate that mark into strikeouts. Included in the last 30 days is his first start of the period, in which he recorded a season high 117 Stuff+. He only lasted five innings, but did strike out seven Dodgers for a 31.8% strikeout rate. He’s been quite inconsistent with his strikeout from start to start, with more bad than good, obviously, but with strong Stuff+ numbers and even a 107 Pitching+, you would expect better.

Kyle Leahy’s transition from bullpen to rotation has gone swimmingly, though not without some good fortune. His well below average Stuff+ has improved over the last 30 days, but not enough to push him close to league average. All of his underlying skill metrics are below average, so there’s really nothing to hang out hat on. He looks like an easy sell in a deep league to a team desperate for pitching if you need to fill a hitting gap.

After sitting over 93 MPH in his debut, Brady Singer’s velocity has stepped down a second time, and his Stuff+ had been its lowest since 2023, when his velocity took its first step down. His velocity hasn’t improved any and his Location+ isn’t good enough to offset the lack of stuff. A home run friendly home park isn’t helping matters.

Now let’s flip over to the decliners.

Since tracking Stuff+, Robbie Ray had never finished a season below last year’s league average mark of 100. This season, he opened the year at just 98, and that’s dipped to just 89 over the last 30 days. That’s a major concern for a 34-year-old. His four-seam velocity is down ever so slightly recently, but not enough to raise any red flags. He did have a game four starts ago when he averaged 0.9 MPH less than his season mark, but he immediately rebounded. Ray’s best pitch from a Stuff+ perspective was always his fastball, followed by his slider, but that pitch has been below 100 for a third straight year. He opened the season with his fastball in triple digits in 10 of his first 11 starts, but has only been in triple digits in two of his last 7 starts, with his last one coming in at just 84. It’s no wonder his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. He is dramatically overperforming both his SIERA and xERA and looks like a prime sell high given his surface stats and name value.

How on Earth did Griffin Jax post an 8.00 ERA and 4.65 SIERA as a reliever, and then a 2.65 ERA and 3.75 SIERA as a starter?! When he was moved to the rotation, I had no interest in picking him up since I figured if he was no longer a good reliever, how is he going to succeed as a starter? Oops! Anyway, his Stuff+ has dropped, which is to be expected, but he’s still managed a reasonable 23.5% strikeout rate. He last recorded more than 100 innings back in 2019 when he was a full-time starter, so I’m not sure how many innings he has left in him. I also highly doubt he continues posting a sub-3.00 ERA as a starter, so regression is coming, but I wouldn’t expect a total implosion. He still seems like a bottom tier starter in shallower formats.

Remember when José Soriano departed April with a microscopic 0.84 ERA? It was easy to think a massive breakout was upon us as his strikeout rate surged and he continued inducing lots of grounders. Instead, he has posted identical 5.34 ERAs in each month since. His velocity hasn’t been quite as robust recently as earlier in the season, and he has posted a triple digit Stuff+ just once over his last seven starts. This was after posting a triple digit mark in eight of his first 11 starts. So the quality of his stuff has really deteriorated. Surprisingly for a guy with worse than average walk rates, he has posted above average Location+ marks and this year has been no exception. That’s hard to explain. Since the calendar turned to May, his strikeout rate is down, but still above his last two years, and his walk rate has spiked even higher, resulting in an ugly 4.40 SIERA. He looks more and more like a first month wonder.

J.T. Ginn has been a surprise free agent find, but it’s been smoke and mirrors as evidenced by his SIERA/xERA overperformance. A significant drop in Stuff+ the last 30 days just adds to the risk that an implosion is imminent, especially when he’s pitching at home. Amazingly, his only two games with a Stuff+ in triple digits were in his second and third appearance of the season, both of which he appeared as a reliever. His sinker has been good, but that’s it, and it’s only been good enough to generate a 47.1% groundball rate, which is barely above average.

Trey Yesavage is a good example of the disparity we sometimes see between SIERA and xERA. His SIERA suggests lots of luck, thanks to a .212 BABIP and 7.2% HR/FB rate. But his xERA of 3.10, which is actually lower than his actual ERA, suggests that he’s actually deserving of such low marks. I find that xERA is more explanatory, whereas SIERA is better used for rest of season projection purposes. Regardless of how good a job he’s done at generating soft contact and easily fieldable batted balls, it’s very difficult to continue doing so, as that BABIP almost has to rise. That said, it’s not great that his Stuff+ has declined so much recently, as he has posted league average 100 marks twice in his last three starts. His velocity is fine, but his four-seam Stuff+ hasn’t been over 90 in his last six starts, after finishing in triple digits four times in his first seven. His splitter remains elite and slider is fine, though, so it’s been all about the fastball.

Paul Skenes also appeared on yesterday’s last 30 day Location+ decliners, so his appearance on here also isn’t a great sign. In fact, his Stuff+ has been down all season. Last year, he recorded a 110 mark for the season, but he’s only reached that mark once all year! He’s been below 100 in four of his last five starts. While he has averaged 97 MPH with his four-seamer, he hasn’t averaged at least that mark once in his last six starts. In other words, he averaged at least 97 MPH in nine of his first 12 starts, and zero of his last six. That seems worrisome, especially when combined with the 11 earned runs he has allowed in his last two outings. I don’t know what’s going on here, but he and Skubal were neck and neck as the top pitcher heading into the year and it’s pretty clear that Skubal is well ahead at the moment.