Edwin Díaz missed the entirety of 2023 after tearing his patellar tendon in the World Baseball Classic, but I’m not concerned about his ability to quickly regain his footing as the top closer in baseball after a brilliant 2022. He was under consideration to return late in 2023 so he should be a full go for Spring Training as he looks for a delayed second act to his unbelievable 50.2% strikeout rate and 1.31 ERA.

While his bottom-line numbers were typical, Josh Hader’s 2023 did have some slight dings under the hood. His 1.28 ERA is bested only by his 2021, and he picked up 33 saves, giving him 103 in the last three seasons. On the flip side, his strikeout and walk rates were the worst of his career; he kept his run-prevention numbers down thanks to a return to homer rates typical of Hader at his best. Keeping him second on the list is the fact that he’s getting paid like an elite closer and because of that he should have the job barring something like his initial Padres run down the stretch in 2022. Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly will probably keep Hader to the one-inning, traditional closer role he’s become accustomed to.

Similarly to Hader, Emmanuel Clase had good season but took a clear step back, with his even more clear than Hader’s. Clase’s ERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and grounder rate all went in the wrong direction, perhaps driven by a cutter that was down half a tick in velocity. What keeps him in this tier is his sterling track record and the fact that even in a down year, he racked up 44 saves. Being the Guardians’s closer tends to lead to a lot of close games and as such, plenty of saves.

Jhoan Duran might have the filthiest stuff of any pitcher in the league, with a fastball north of 100mph and a “splinker” that can scrape triple digits. What holds him back is a strikeout rate that’s excellent but not elite, and more importantly, a new-school manager who doesn’t always use him to close. Rocco Baldelli isn’t afraid to deploy Duran in tighter situations earlier in the game, which can take saves away from him.

Camilo Doval was a well-deserved All-Star in 2023, breaking out as someone resembling Emmanuel Clase with worse command. Walks have been a slight issue for him (sometimes more than that), and he wore down a bit in the second half, with a 3.38 ERA compared to 2.63 before the break.

Evan Phillips is coming off two excellent season with the Dodgers, the second of them as the team’s primary closer. What keeps him in the second tier is his usage; although the Dodgers won 100 games in 2023, Phillips saved just 24 games, with Dave Roberts sometimes deploying Phillips similarly to how Baldelli occasionally uses Duran.

Although Raisel Iglesias’s season started late due to a shoulder strain, it was more of the same Iglesias upon his return, with a 2.75 ERA and 33 saves. What might give some pause is his age (he’ll be in his age-34 season) in conjunction with that prior shoulder injury, as well as running into occasional homer issues.

Pittsburgh’s native son David Bednar had his first fully healthy season as a closer in 2023, and didn’t disappoint, putting up a 2.00 ERA and 39 saves. He does have a history of finicky back issues, though, and his strikeout rate dropped below 30% in 2023.

Alvarado’s never held down a closing job for a full season, but with Craig Kimbrel in Baltimore, 2024 looks to be his chance. He still walks more than he should and has only topped 60 innings in a season once, however.

Andrés Muñoz was injured for longer in 2023 than he was in 2022, and his walk and strikeout rates both got worse. But his injury was at the start of the season instead of the end, though he did wear down in September (five earned runs in 10.1 innings).

Jordan Romano missed some time with a back injury, and had his worst ERA (2.90) since his cup of coffee in 2019. He was also as hittable as he’s ever been. That said, his fastball velocity was steady year-over-year and his batted ball metrics arguably improved.

Ryan Helsley’s 2023 season was injury-marred and not as good as his 2022 when he was on the field, but still shoved a triple-digit fastball down hitters’ throats, leading to a strikeout rate of above 35%; he also allowed just one homer in his 36.2 innings of work. His health should never be assumed, however, which knocks him down quite a few spots.

Paul Sewald had an inauspicious beginning to his Diamondbacks tenure, giving up a walk off homer in his first appearance in sedona red, and he additionally got battered in the World Series. His lower-than-typical-for-a-closer velocity will lead to more homers than you’d like, but his elite vertical approach angle and good command give him a pretty high floor.

Things finally clicked for Tanner Scott, whose 2023 walk rate was by far the best of his career, and his 104 strikeouts made him one of the few relievers to get into triple digits. Keeping him from being at least a bit higher on this list is the fear that he’ll have a walk rate relapse.

It was very much a tale of two seasons for Alexis Díaz, who was arguably the best closer in the NL in the first half, but badly faltered to a 4.61 ERA in the second half. He still picked up 37 saves and should undoubtedly enter the 2024 season closing for the Reds, keeping him in this tier.

Pete Fairbanks’s stuff is objectively electric, but he’s got one big problem: injuries. 2023 was his fifth season in the majors, and his 45.2 innings were actually a career-high. It’s tough to forecast a Fairbanks season that doesn’t include an IL trip.

Clay Holmes will probably never again reach the heights of his first half of 2022, but he put together an altogether solid season in 2023. It doesn’t seem as if he’ll ever be able to avoid those games where he just can’t find the strike zone, though.

It was a tale of two seasons for Robert Stephenson in 2023, who struggled in Pittsburgh before dominating in a Rays uniform. His turnaround came after he ditched his slider for a cutter, and led to a three-year, $33M deal with the Angels. money that means he’s likelier than not to close. The “flawed” part of his game is that him closing isn’t 100% certain, and we’ve only got a half-season of dominance to go off here. He’s been knocked down a spot won’t be quite ready for the start of the season due to shoulder soreness, but if it does he won’t be out for long.

It was a typical season for the recent vintage of the mercurial Craig Kimbrel, whose ERA stood at 8.25 on May 3 before posting a 2.21 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 57 innings the rest of the way. Although he was struggling again by the NLCS, that didn’t stop the Orioles from signing him to be their closer as he looks for his first 30-save campaign since 2018.

Kenley Jansen basically had the reverse of Kimbrel’s season, starting out strong before faltering to give up seven runs in four September appearances, spiking his ERA from 2.74 to 3.63. He’s reportedly on the trade block, though it’s hard to imagine a team acquiring him to do anything but close, meaning his ranking here should be pretty stable.

Devin Williams’s back injury is horrible news, and will keep him out for at least a third (but likelier close to half) of the season. He’ll be the guy when he returns, but his value is hugely hampered by the time he’ll miss.

Adbert Alzolay emerged from the Cubs’s closer committee as the clear choice by the end of the season, ultimately converting 22 saves. The converted starter appears to be in the bullpen for good, but Craig Counsell is never one to shy away from using relievers unconventionally, which could lead to setup men earning more saves.

Alex Lange started the season looking like he could be the Tigers’s All-Star representative, but lost his footing as the season wore on, posting a 5.06 ERA from June 1 through the end of the season. Most troubling was his 34 walks in 42.2 innings in that time. His stuff is undeniably closer-worthy, but he’ll need to find the zone more often to stick.

José Leclerc had a bizarre season, pitching well the whole way through but only earning four saves, with Bruce Bochy calling an audible for Will Smith to be his closer after Leclerc had some walk-heavy, inefficient outings. But by the playoffs, Leclerc was the clear closer, earning another four saves along the way. The David Robertson addition makes Leclerc’s position hold on the closing job a lot looser, but we’ll keep him in this spot for now as we await clarity.

Hunter Harvey finally made it through a mostly healthy season in 2023, setting a new career high with 57 appearances after making it into just 64 in the four years prior. He also earned ten saves, and will be jockeying for position with Kyle Finnegan.

Kyle Finnegan is a spot below Harvey only because his stuff just isn’t as good as Harvey’s, so even if it’s roughly a coin flip as to who closes right now, my guess is that Harvey runs away with the job.

Carlos Estévez was looking like one of the better deals of the offseason in the first half, when he was selected to his first career All-Star game after posting a 1.80 ERA in the first half. But much like the Angels, his performance withered in the second half, with a 6.59 ERA (plus six more unearned runs). His job is in flux after the Robert Stephenson signing, who will both make more than Estévez and had an opposite second half. Estévez could get knocked down quite a bit on this list if Stephenson wins the job outright out of camp.

Hard-throwing Mason Miller will be converted to the bullpen in 2023, and has the leg up on the closer job entering the season. That said, I’m concerned about how he’ll be utilized. Will he be able to work back-to-back days? How many saves will he realistically earn?

The Marlins gave up a notable prospect to get David Robertson at the trade deadline, but it didn’t work out, with a 5.06 ERA in 22 games for Miami, ultimately losing his job to Tanner Scott and undoing a lot of good he had done with the Mets. Still, he was throwing harder than ever, and the Rangers rewarded his stuff with an $11.5M contract. Right now, it’s unclear who’ll get the closing reps between Robertson and Leclerc, and they could both make big moves up or down this list depending on who wins out.

Justin Lawrence was one of the more mercurial relievers of the 2023 season, with a 5.40 ERA at home, 1.62 ERA on the road, 2.76 ERA in the first half, 5.22 ERA in the second half, and almost perfectly alternating good and bad months throughout the year. Of those who apepar to have closing jobs at least somewhat locked in at this stage of the offseason, Lawrence is lowest because of his inexperience, lack of success at Coors, and the continued presence of Daniel Bard on the roster.

Robert Suarez never got things going in the first year of his five year, $46 million contract, missing a large chunk of the season and ultimately making it into only 26 games. He was still tough to hit, allowing just 15 hits in 27.2 innings, but his strikeout and homer rates both went in the wrong direction. Still, he’s likeliest to enter the season as the Padres closer, with Yuki Matsui providing competition.

Bryan Abreu was one of just a handful of relievers to strike out 100+ hitters in 2023, but he continued to walk over 10% of batters faced. He should continue to get ample opportunities for holds and backup saves, though.

Firethrowing Brusdar Graterol will never strike out as many hitters as his velocity would indicate he perhaps ought to, but his 1.20 ERA made him a key cog in the Dodger bullpen. He also earned seven saves and should get more oppportunities when Dave Roberts chooses to deploy Phillips earlier. He’s dealing with a minor hip injury and will probably miss the Seoul Series but be ready for the regular season.

Chris Martin would move up this list if Kenley Jansen is traded, as is reportedly under discussion. He continued to walk almost nobody, with his 4.0% walk rate actually his highest in the last three seasons. That in combination with his sterling 1.05 ERA earned him a down-ballot Cy Young vote.

He’ll never be the best version of himself again, and he’s entering his age-36 season, but Aroldis Chapman had a nice bounceback campaign in a setup role. He potentially could’ve signed somewhere to close, but took $10.5M to be David Bednar’s top setup man in Pittsburgh. He could find himself closing again after the deadline, though.

Going from Twins exile to breakout reliever thanks to just a slight change in arm slot, Yennier Cano bent a little bit as the season went on, but still finished with an excellent 2.11 ERA and eight saves, most coming after Félix Bautista went down with a UCL tear. He’ll return to his setup role with Kimbrel in the fold.

Kevin Ginkel didn’t make the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster, but he was rock-solid upon being called back up, and he had his real star turn in the playoffs. Ginkel was untouchable when it really mattered, with ten scoreless appearances and 15 strikeouts in 11.2 innings.

Jason Adam got ample opportunities to close and ultimately picked up 12 saves while Pete Fairbanks was on and off the IL, but he’s further down this list for as long as Fairbanks is healthy. His 2.98 ERA was good but his 4.33 xERA could be pointing towards regression.

Here’s a guy I didn’t expect to send this far down the list at any point in the offseason barring injury, but the Josh Hader signing came together quickly. Ryan Pressly had his worst season as an Astro in 2023, with a 3.58 ERA and his first WHIP above 1.000 since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Also of note, he’s been held down by some neck and knee injuries in recent years, and the 35-year-old isn’t getting any younger. Adding Hader means he’ll be relegated to being second in line for saves with Bryan Abreu staying in his fireman role.

Matt Brash joined Abreu in the 100 strikeout club, and the rubber-armed Canadian appeared in 78 games to boot. He avoided serious injury but will still miss the start of the season with elbow inflammation. I’m not too concerned, but it should keep him out until at least mid-April.

King of soft contact, Tyler Rogers had another strong season in 2023 and should fill a key role behind Camilo Doval as the likeliest to get backup saves

Jonathan Loáisiga had an injury-ravaged 2023, only appearing in 17 games, but his stuff is undeniable.

The ever-durable Hector Neris had a great year by run-prevention standards, with a career-best in ERA, but his walk rate spiked and he lost a couple ticks on his fastball. Adbert Alzolay had a strong season as Chicago’s closer in his first full season as a reliever, so Neris will more than likely slot in as a setup man and his top backup.

Joel Payamps might be done bouncing around the league after putting together a 2.55 ERA and being a key setup man in Milwaukee. He’s an option to close with Williams out but doesn’t get to move up higher on the list since the Brewers will go with a committee.

Erik Swanson had a nice first season as a Blue Jay, but as usual, homers were something of an issue for him.

Lefty A.J. Minter filled in admirably for Raisel Iglesias to start the season, but is more durable than dominant.

Another southpaw, Brooks Raley has reinvented himself since coming back to the States for the 2020 season, and is next in line for save chances if the Mets want to ensure Edwin Díaz gets a slightly softer landing coming off his ACL surgery.

Joe Jiménez will always give up his fair share of homers, but he’s had back-to-back strong seasons as a setup man.

Curveball-happy Pierce Johnson had a Stephenson-esque effect on the Braves, and would have a strong case to close somewhere if he had entered free agency instead of taking an extension. Instead, he’ll be a key setup man for Iglesias.

Jason Foley was one of the more difficult relievers to elevate against, giving up just two homers in 69 innings. He picked up seven saves when Lange faltered.

32-year-old Justin Topa finally had a healthy season, throwing 69 innings, most in a season since he had 81.1 in the minors way back in 2014. He didn’t even make the Mariners’s Opening Day roster but made 75 appearances. He’ll fill a key setup role on the Twins.

Things were pretty rough for Josh Sborz in the season, but peripheral statistics have always liked him better than ERA, and he was excellent in the postseason. 2024 will be an important prove-it year.

31-year-old Brock Stewart was exiled from the majors between 2020 and 2022, returning triumphantly with a few extra ticks on his fastball and a 0.65 ERA in 27.2 innings. If his elbow holds up, he could be in for a big year.

Yet another breakout on the wrong side of 30, Julian Merryweather held up for the entirety of 2023, having his first healthy season since his 2017 minor league campaign. He struck out 98 in 72 innings, albeit with 36 walks.

Taylor Rogers didn’t have as good a year as his brother, but rebounded after an awful start to finish his year with a 2.79 ERA in his final 55 appearances.

Emilio Pagán is coming off his best season since 2019 and had his first season ever with under 1.0 HR/9, but a move to Great American Ball Park makes a repeat difficult.

Down on the South Side of Chicago, Gregory Santos was one of the biggest breakout relievers of the season, ultimately getting some closing opportunities by the end of the season. He looked to be in the driver’s seat for save chances in 2024, but his trade to the Mariners knocks him down this list. He’s now third in line for saves in Seattle, behind Muñoz and a healthy Brash.

With Pagán gone from Minnesota, Griffin Jax takes on a more important role in the Twins’ pen. He started strong but withered down the stretch.

Japanese lefty Yuki Matsui could share closing chances with Robert Suarez, with his small stature actually helping his fastball achieve elite VAA.

Few arms are as physically imposing as Trevor Megill, who looks to have gotten his mechanics in sync with his 6’8″ frame. He’ll start out as part of the closing committee in Williams’s absence; xERA and 2024 projections both love him

Abner Uribe is one of the hardest throwers in the majors, but his walk rate might keep him on the periphery of the Williams Substitution Committee.

Really, Jeff Hoffman already had his breakout, but with Craig Kimbrel in Baltimore he’ll take on an even more crucial role in Philadelphia. Rob Thomson isn’t one to shy away from being situational, which could lead to Hoffman earning some saves.

James McArthur’s 2023 bottom line wasn’t great, but he had an excellent September.

Four dominant MLB innings coming off a minor league breakout get John McMillon on the list, as he finally got his walk rate under control. He was sent down to start the season as he gets his mechanics back in fine form, but I’m still a believer.

Ben Joyce hasn’t thrown quite as hard as he did in college, and I’m not sure he’ll ever have a consistent enough second pitch to be more than a good setup man.

Gregory Soto finally got his walk rate under control, and despite his high ERA he allowed the lowest hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of his career. Still, he’s lower on the depth chart and needs more of a track record of throwing strikes.

Breaking-ball happy Scott Barlow rebounded after being traded to the Padres and working in a setup role, but he’s lost velocity on his fastball and won’t be able to supplant Emmanuel Clase as closer.

On the very surface, things looked good for Kirby Yates, but his walk rate spiked. Entering his age-37 season, he’s likelier to end up a middle reliever than closer, especially if the Rangers aren’t done adding to the bullpen.

Will Smith returns to where it all started for him, coming off a rough finish to his season and a postseason relegated to mop-up duty.

2023 started off solidly for Anderson, albeit with reduced velocity. After missing the whole second half with a shoulder strain, he’ll look for his first fully healthy year since his 2019 rookie campaign.

Giovanny Gallegos has always had to thread the needle as a slider-happy righty who doesn’t throw super hard, and his ERA spiked while he gave up 11 homers. Still, he could earn double-digit saves knowing Ryan Helsley often gets hurt.

I wasn’t expecting to have to add John Brebbia to this list after finishing up the first entry, but his signing with the White Sox made things interesting, and it makes things especially interesting now that he’s likeliest to earn save chances for the White Sox. The Sox easily have the most unsettled closing situation in the majors, and it got more unsettled when Brebbia suffered a calf strain early in camp. He think he’ll be ready for the season, but I’ve bumped him down a bit for now.

Steven Wilson is a late entrant to the list, as his acquisition from the Padres takes him from middle relief to being right in the thick of the closing competition. He’s a spot behind Brebbia only because he’s newer to the team and has less MLB experience.

Incredibly impressive this Spring, it sure looks like Puk will be making a move to the rotation. Still, it’s hard to see him sticking there all season considering his professional high in innings is 125, and that was way back in 2017.

Hard-throwing Reynaldo López had a much better year than Puk and has officially made the rotation, but he’s a spot lower than Puk since he’s likely to stick there for longer, owing to his prior experience.

In a surprise move, the Giants signed Jordan Hicks not to bolster what would be a deep bullpen, but to perhaps start. There’s no way Hicks makes it through a whole season of starting–he’s just not going to throw 150 innings a year after 65.2. So he stays on these rankings under the assumption he could and probably will bounce back and forth, at a certain point forming a great back-end with Doval and the Rogers brothers.

Although his triumphant return from cancer was dashed by a torn UCL, it was still nice to see Liam Hendriks back on the field the same year as his diagnosis. He’s aiming to be back with the Red Sox by August 1, though that’s a very aggressive timetable of 365 days after surgery.