Poll 2026: Which Group of Batters Performs Better?

The All-Star break is here! That means it’s time to get polling. As has become an annual tradition, I’m going to start by comparing batter wOBA to xwOBA and pitting the xwOBA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.

We know that xwOBA isn’t perfect (for example, it fails to account for horizontal angle, which certainly impacts results). Neither are SIERA, xERA, and the rest of the ERA estimators. In fact, no estimated/expected/forecasted equation is going to be perfect, because there will always be players that do something we have a difficult time quantifying. Furthermore, there will always be players each year that fall into either end of the extremes for no other reason than complete randomness (luck). So let’s keep that in mind when reviewing these two groups.

My initial population group consisted of 149 qualified hitters. Group A is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA overperformers, while Group B is composed of the 10 largest xwOBA underperformers.

This is a fascinating pair of groups. The aggregate wOBA marks are the closest between the two that I can recall. So the two groups actually haven’t performed as differently as they have in the past. However, Group A has overperformed by a meaningfully greater degree than they did last year, while Group B has underperformed significantly less. That’s interesting. Group A’s wOBA is also surprisingly just a point away from sitting below .300, so one can make an argument that absent good fortune, they have actually been below average hitters this year.

As usual, we find that the overperforming group has seemingly benefited from balls finding holes and eluding defenders, resulting in a dramatically higher batting average than expected. On the other hand, the underperformers simply can’t buy a hit. Similarly, the overperformers have hit for more power than deserved, while the underperformers have hit for less.

Let’s now dive into some of the names that are included in each of the groups, beginning with Group A. The top overperformer this year by a respectable margin is Jake McCarthy. I’ve been in on McCarthy at times in the past given his speed and non-killer batting average. However, a potential platoon bat (albeit on the strong side) in a crowded Rockies outfield heading into the season caused me to ignore him this year. Oops! He’s been quite the free agent find, not only due to his speed, but also his surprising 10 home runs, which is a new career high.

I wouldn’t necessarily think that McCarthy would be a big beneficiary of Coors Field, but he has been. While his walk and strikeout rates, along with his BABIP, are similar home and away, his HR/FB rate at home is nearly triple his road mark, resulting in a significantly higher home wOBA. Overall, the Rockies have posted a .327 wOBA, versus just a .309 xwOBA, so you would have to assume the park is the culprit here and xwOBA isn’t factoring it in. I still can’t imagine McCarthy maintaining a 20%+ HR/FB rate at home, but whether he hits six homers or four homers the rest of the way isn’t going to matter much. He’s not platooning and playing every day while hitting atop the Rockies lineup. He’s obviously a better play in daily leagues when he’s at home, but I wouldn’t expect a precipitous fall here.

Ernie Clement is at it again, delivering value with the bat while Statcast can’t understand how. While he has overperformed the last two seasons as well, this is the lowest xwOBA he has posted and the largest overperformance. What’s bizarre here is that he’s been a flyball hitter since his first full-ish season in 2024, yet owns below average bat speed and power. That’s not the ideal batted ball profile for a guy with his skill set. I’m actually surprised Statcast calculates such significant overperformance, because a .308 BABIP and .137 ISO don’t exactly scream fluke or suggest dramatic downside. He’s still not the type of hitter I want to own since he’s so heavily BABIP-dependent, but he does lead off now and his strong strikeout rate means that he’ll continue to be a batting average contributor.

TJ Rumfield is the second Rockies hitter to appear in the top three, and he’s been quite solid, despite posting weak Statcast power metrics for a first baseman. Unlike McCarthy, Rumfield actually hasn’t benefited much from Coors Field, as he has only recorded a wOBA 0.015 higher at home, with slightly more power there, but a slightly lower BABIP. I think he’ll be fine in deeper mixed leagues, but he really shouldn’t be delivering much positive value in shallower formats the rest of the way.

My gosh, where did Liam Hicks comes from?! First, let’s talk about his power. He had never posted a HR/FB rate over 6.5% in a 100+ AB sample size, so has actually doubled that this year. That’s despite below average Statcast metrics, including a minuscule 3.6% Barrel%. He’s pulling his flies a bit more than the league average, but not to the degree that would support the HR/FB rate outburst despite the weak underlying power metrics. I love the contact skills and low strikeout rate, but his batted ball profile does not lend itself to a strong BABIP, as it’s light on line drives and heavy on pop-ups. I’m going with xwOBA here and think he’ll be closer to a bust the rest of the way.

No, Luis Arraez has not overperformed every year and has posted just a .08 gap between his wOBA and xwOBA over his career. So it’s worth noting his massive overperformance this year, as it’s easily a career high. Some of it is likely due to a rebound in BABIP, despite his highest FB%. That jump would be good news for a power hitter, but it makes little sense for Arraez to suddenly be recording a career-high FB%. That has combined with the lowest LD% and highest IFFB% of his career, so it’s surprising to see the BABIP back up to .330. Either his batted ball profile improves (for him) or his BABIP is going to regress. The other part of the overperformance is likely his ISO, which fantasy owners don’t really care about, as it’s mostly driven by a career high seven triples. So basically, he continues to hit like he always does, but perhaps don’t expect a .330 average the rest of the way.

Ceddanne Rafaela has improved his batted ball profile for BABIP, but perhaps Statcast isn’t buying it. On the other hand, his power looks stable, but his HardHit% and Barrel% have both plunged, while his BatSpd is at a career low since becoming a regular. I would think his power metrics would rebound given his age, preventing his HR/FB rate from dipping, but I wouldn’t bet on his BABIP remaining over .330.

It’s mostly Brooks Lee’s power output that Statcast is questioning. With a below average HardHit% and just a 3.9% Barrel%, how has he posted a double digit HR/FB rate and .179 ISO? He’s pushed his flyball Pull% up above 30% to above league average, though his Hard% on his flyballs is well below the league average. That said, his batted ball direction does suggest he’ll continue overperforming at least his xSLG, but hard to believe he’s pulling his flies enough to maintain this level. The 40% FB% helps, along with the mid-teen strikeout rate, making him look like a less flyball and pull heavy version of Isaac Paredes.

It’s incredible to see Otto Lopez’s transformation, though he clearly hasn’t done this without a sprinkling of good fortune. The power seems real, but he’s not deserving of a .370 BABIP. He’s posted just a 15.4% LD%, which makes it difficult to record so many hits on balls in play. A decline in hits will reduce his runs scored, RBI, and stolen bases, so he’s a reasonable guy to shop around.

Ozzie Albies’ power has officially disappeared, even though his ISO is up a bit from the last two years. Most of his xwOBA overperformance is due to the ISO rebound, despite the second lowest HardHit% of his career, along with a career low Barrel%. Fantasy owners don’t really care about that, but it suggests that HR/FB rate isn’t due to get back into double digits anytime soon, though it’s juuuuuust below at the moment. Perhaps the craziest thing here is just the one steal, so he’s gone from a 30/20 guy and combining for 50 home runs and steals, to pacing for around 20 this year.

Did you know that José Caballero visited Driveline Baseball this offseason to increase his power? Between he and fellow alum Jordan Walker, Driveline has had quite the success stories so far. It’s too bad that Statcast thinks it’s been all luck. His HardHit% and Barrel% are both down near career lows, while his bat speed is actually at a career low. Yet, his HR/FB rate has nearly tripled from last year, though his ISO hasn’t increased as meaningfully. He has been pulling his flies at a higher rate than last year, but it’s in line with his 2023 and 2024 seasons when he posted significantly lower HR/FB rates. And his flyball Hard% is down. One other split to check is his home/road, but he’s actually posted a higher HR/FB rate on the road, so we can’t point to Yankee Stadium as the primary driver of his home run outburst. This looks like a complete fluke to me, so expect continued steals the rest of the way, but without the same level of home run power.

Moving on to Group B, the underperformers, we find Brandon Nimmo leading the pack. This is the highest xwOBA he has ever posted and it’s almost entirely due to power underperformance. While it looks like his home park is crushing his HR/FB rate, as he has posed just a 4.1% mark there, the park has actually inflated left-handed home runs this year. Perhaps the explanation is as simple as a measly 10.8% FB Pull%, which is a career low, paired with a career high Cent%. So it’s as easy as hoping he pulls more of his flies, otherwise he’s destined to drastically underperform on the power side.

Cam Smith could also afford to pull his flies more, but he’s still posted double the mark of Nimmo. With strong Statcast power metrics and a big jump in BatSpd to an elite level, I’m a big fan. Selfishly, I’m hoping he finishes with a weak second half so I could scoop him up cheaply next year en route to a big breakout.

Miguel Vargas, one of this season’s biggest breakouts, is underperforming?! Wow. It looks like it’s a bit more on the batting average side than power, thanks to a lowly .243 BABIP. A low BABIP is expected thanks to a below average LD% and extreme FB%, but perhaps .243 is still below what’s deserved. The power breakout looks legit based on his Statcast metrics and massively improved BatSpd, but as is always the case with breakouts (or disappointments), that still doesn’t guarantee he’ll sustain those improvements.

Mike Trout is posting a career best Barrel%! That’s great news for power upside, though it’s impossible to trade for him given his injury risk.

All I can say is LOL at Yordan Alvarez underperforming even with a .439 wOBA. I’m so annoyed at myself for not buying him at a discount after a disappointing and injury-marred 2025.

It’s pretty obvious that Nico Hoerner isn’t deserving of a career worst .243 BABIP. That has taken a bite out of his stolen base opportunities and hampered his runs scored and RBI potential. Everything else looks normal here, but his power has been even worse than his usual below average marks.

Bobby Witt Jr. has benefited from a much more home run friendly home park this year, but he’s posted just a mid-single digit HR/FB rate on the road, which is crazy. It’s nuts that this profile isn’t producing consistent high teen HR/FB rates, especially now that his home park isn’t holding him back. A low FB Pull% is definitely part of the problem, so the hope here is he ups that mark at some point, as I really think a 40-homer season is in his future.

Clearly, the Reds lost patience waiting for Matt McLain’s luck to turn, though a .317 xwOBA is simply not good enough to bother waiting for a turnaround that might never come. So much for that huge spring training convincing many a massive breakout was in the cards! It’s too bad, because I drafted him in mixed LABR before spring training and hoped that performance was a sign of things to come.

The second lowest BABIP, ISO, and HR/FB rate has made Bo Bichette a disappointment during his first Mets season, and that he doesn’t steal bases means he can’t afford to underperform elsewhere or he borders on worthless in fantasy leagues. His BABIP isn’t that much below league average, you’re just hoping he bumps that up to his typically inflated mark, while his HR/FB rate isn’t actually much below last year. I wouldn’t bother trying to buy low here, so owners just need to keep their fingers crossed.

So which group performs better over the rest of the season? Let’s get to the poll questions. Feel free to share your poll answers and why you voted the way you did.