Archive for Starting Pitchers

Biggest Starting Pitcher Improvements from April to May

Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

For most of us, April results are not that much more meaningful than the results we get from our teams during the rest of the season. For those of you who play in Cutline leagues, all the power to ‘ya. 

But in practice, April results can have a bit of an outsized impact on fantasy teams. For one, early season-ending injuries are of course more impactful than similar injuries that happen later, since you have more output to backfill. 

And April hot starts can sometimes be parlayed into months of strong performance. That Week 1 streamer who turns into one of the stalwarts of your otherwise lackluster rotation or the top prospect who earned a last minute spot in the starting lineup out of Spring Training. 

We all know these feel good stories. We all know the other side of that coin, too. The early draft pick who limps through April with an inflated ERA. Or who Tatis’s their way through the first nine weeks of the season without a home run. 

In this article, I’ll look at the starting pitchers who have seen the biggest improvements between April and May, keeping things simple by sorting by ERA and K-BB% to trim the fat before getting into meatier analysis on some of the more intriguing arms.

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FAAB Frenzy and Waivers Wild: Week 11

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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FAAB & Waiver Wire Report: Pitchers (Week 10)


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My son competed in the State Track Meet this weekend, so I’ll only had time to cover the pitchers while Jack Dorfman covered the hitters.

In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.

The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers. Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Rookie Check In: Bubba Chandler, Parker Messick, and Nolan McLean

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

We have covered several hitters for our rookie check-ins. Though we will cover more in the future, we wanted to shift our attention to three starting pitchers worth highlighting that were rookie-eligible heading into the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Several rookies have been performing well, with some struggles. We’ll continue examining rookies throughout the season, including some advice on whether to buy, sell, or hold in keeper and dynasty formats.

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Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 1–7

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

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Exploiting wRC+ Splits in 2026

Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

With a third of the season in the books, the sample size for certain data and metrics has grown from too small to large enough that it must be taken seriously. The New York Yankees post a wRC+ of 123 against left-handed pitching — the best mark in baseball. The Mariners, another pre-season World Series contender, sit at 75. That 48-point gap between the two elite lineups on paper, against southpaws, is no longer such a small sample that we need to ignore it. Leveraging platoons has long been an important strategic lever for lineups looking to gain an advantage. Using wRC+ through the first stretch of the 2026 season, we can see every team’s offensive production against left- and right-handed pitching to find where the real discrepancies lie, and how we can target these matchups on both sides of the ball as we move deeper into the season, and what trends we should be watching.

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Three Starting Pitchers Who Lost Stuff and Command

Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

I’ll often wonder and speculate on what’s happening and why, without researching the idea. Somehow, most of my interesting ideas tend to happen when I’m driving or doing something where I can’t stop and research the data. One of those ideas was to examine which starting pitchers have lost stuff and command in 2026. compared to 2025. That said, here’s a look at the starting pitchers who threw 20 innings with a three-point decline (we rounded, so you’ll see a difference of 2.5 or more) in their Stuff+ and Location+ in 2026.

Though these pitchers have lower Stuff+ and Location+ grades, they might not remain that way for the rest of the season. Several of these pitchers make sense since they often relied upon command. We can toss out Cole Ragans and Garrett Crochet (injuries). Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta, Parker Messick, and Ranger Suarez have been showing above-average command numbers in both seasons.

Whenever a starting pitcher is struggling or succeeding, we want to understand the why and try to determine whether the results have been sustainable. This is a beefy one, with a deep look into three starting pitchers who lost significant stuff and command in 2026. 

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FAAB Frenzy and Waivers Wild: Week 10

Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Read the rest of this entry »


Stuff Wins: Revisiting the Multi-Fastball Profile

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Beyond the Obvious Multi-Fastball Breakouts

Building on the chart we used last week to identify multi-fastball starters, some interesting names did not receive the analysis they perhaps deserved. This second piece seeks to address that, diving deeper into the names that did not fit the profiles identified in the initial piece but deserve coverage nonetheless, both from a pure baseball and fantasy perspective. Of the 38 qualified starters using a multi-fastball approach, 24 utilize a true multi-variant arsenal. The majority of these pitchers are already well known. Deep dives on Bryan Woo or Max Fried are not necessary at this point, but having covered some of the more obvious fantasy adds in part one, there was still plenty more to explore. The updated chart below reflects the latest qualified starter data, including some new names worth keeping an eye on.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: May 22, 2026

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Below are the most significant changes in projected playing time for starting pitchers and relief pitchers from the last four days, after taking last week off due to a lack of important moves. Unfortunately, there were plenty of injuries in the past week to make up for a slow prior seven days.

Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 5/8 to 5/22
Name Team % of Team’s Remaining GS, 5/8 % of Team’s Remaining GS, 5/22 PT Change Reason
Ben Brown CHC 1% 8% 7% Getting fully stretched out
Patrick Corbin TOR 9% 14% 5% Berríos injury solidifies spot
Dax Fulton MIA 1% 6% 5% Snelling injury should get him in rotation sooner
Chase Dollander COL 15% 10% -5% Sprained elbow
Simeon Woods Richardson MIN 14% 9% -5% Moved to bullpen
Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 14% 9% -5% Shoulder inflammation
Chad Patrick MIL 16% 11% -5% Moved to bullpen
Alek Manoah LAA 6% 1% -5% Outrighted to minors
Max Fried NYY 19% 13% -6% Elbow bone bruise
José Berríos TOR 10% 0% -10% Tommy John surgery
Clay Holmes NYM 17% 6% -11% Fractured fibula
Robby Snelling MIA 15% 0% -15% Tommy John surgery

 

Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, RP, 5/8 to 5/22
Name Team % Change in Proj. RP IP, 5/8 to 5/22 Reason
Alimber Santa HOU 156% Welcome to the big leagues!
Adam Macko TOR 150% Called up and already looks like a key cog in the bullpen
Jason Foley SFG 117% On rehab assignment
Didier Fuentes ATL 68% Cracking the rotation will be hard when he’s in single-inning spurts
Rob Zastryzny MIL 62% On rehab assignment
Kyle Hurt LAD 44% Amidst breakout season
Tyler Samaniego BOS 43% Scoreless streak ended, but coaching staff’s
Sam Hentges SFG 33% Back from IL
Nate Pearson HOU 30% Back from IL
Kody Funderburk MIN -30% Optioned to minors
Ryan Walker SFG -30% Optioned to minors
Ryan Weathers NYY -31% Fried injury keeps him in rotation longer
Ryan Weiss 와이스 HOU -35% Optioned to minors
Ben Brown CHC -37% Moved to rotation
Brock Stewart LAD -37% Bone spur in foot
Janson Junk MIA -38% Snelling injury should keep him in rotation for longer
Patrick Corbin TOR -38% Berríos surgery should keep him in rotation for longer
Aaron Bummer ATL -100% Released
Kyle Harrison MIL -100% No way he’s moving from the rotation at any point now