From 2021 to 2025 among pitchers with at least 100 innings recorded, Stuff+ has a 0.708 correlation with strikeout rate. That’s quite significant. Although I don’t have the stabilization point of Stuff+, I have to imagine it becomes meaningful far more quickly than strikeout rate. Assuming that’s the case, it follows that monitoring Stuff+ changes is key to predicting future strikeout rate direction.
It’s the end of the week and time for another rundown of Pitcher Playing Time Changes. Let’s get into it:
| Name | Team | Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 4/10 | Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 4/17 | PT Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Schultz | CHW | 4% | 14% | 10% | Welcome to the big leagues! |
| Michael Soroka | ARI | 8% | 14% | 6% | Sticking in the rotation even with Merrill Kelly 켈리 back |
| Walker Buehler | SDP | 6% | 12% | 6% | Has pitched much better his last two starts + Pivetta injury |
| Ryan Pepiot | TBR | 18% | 13% | -5% | Transferred to 60-day IL |
| Jonathan Cannon | CHW | 10% | 4% | -6% | On IL with hip inflammation |
| Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | 18% | 10% | -8% | Moved to bullpen with Kelly healthy |
| Nick Pivetta | SDP | 18% | 8% | -10% | Flexor strain, recovery will be measured in “weeks and maybe months” |
| Name | Team | % Chg. In Proj. RP IP | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | NYM | 271% | The possible future Hall of Fame member’s career keeps chugging along |
| Andrew Morris | MIN | 178% | Called up to be a multi-inning option in the bullpen |
| Angel Chivilli | NYY | 92% | Called up to majors |
| J.P. France | HOU | 77% | Multiple-inning Swiss Army knife for much-maligned pitching staff |
| Tanner Gordon | COL | 67% | Called up for bullpen length |
| Mitchell Parker | WSN | 64% | Called up for bullpen length |
| Yovanny Cruz | NYY | 63% | Strong spring has carried over to Triple-A, could be a factor sooner than later |
| Chase Shugart | PHI | 47% | called up after injuries to Bowlan, Zach Pop |
| Jacob Latz | TEX | 36% | Key member of the mix-and-match bullpen |
| Colin Rea | CHC | -33% | Too important to the rotation now |
| Cody Bolton | HOU | -35% | Back injury, on IL |
| Jonathan Bowlan | PHI | -38% | Strained groin |
| Ben Casparius | LAD | -40% | Shoulder inflammation |
| Cody Laweryson | MIN | -41% | Forearm strain |
| Valente Bellozo | COL | -48% | Optioned to minors |
| Luis Curvelo | TEX | -48% | Strained bicep |
| Walker Buehler | SDP | -50% | Too important to the rotation with Pivetta out |
| Michael Soroka | ARI | -59% | Sticking in rotation for now |
| Porter Hodge | CHC | -100% | UCL surgery, out for year |
| Cade Winquest | NYY | -100% | R5 pick returned to STL before making MLB debut |
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
Note: The two-game SDP-ARI series on April 25–26 will be played in Mexico City at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú. The park factors for this stadium are off the charts — it’s at a higher elevation than Coors Field without the enormous outfield dimensions of that ballpark. Start your Padres and Diamondbacks SPs at your own risk.
Happy Friday, and happy Pitcher Playing Time Changes day! I skipped last week because there wasn’t a whole lot going on with playing time changes yet, but unfortunately for the UCLs of Cade Horton and Zach Eflin, that’s not the case this week. Here are the most significant swings in projected playing time:
| Name | Team | % of Remaining GS, 4/3 | % of Remaining GS, 4/10 | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | CHC | 5% | 12% | 7% | Moved to rotation with Horton out for season |
| Brandon Young | BAL | 1% | 6% | 5% | Eflin injury coverage |
| Johan Oviedo | BOS | 7% | 2% | -5% | Flexor strain, out six weeks; hard to see Early/Tolle not having the rotation spot locked down by then |
| Joe Musgrove | SDP | 16% | 11% | -5% | Still not back to throwing off a mound |
| Shane Smith | CHW | 18% | 12% | -6% | From Opening Day starter to Triple-A |
| Hunter Brown | HOU | 19% | 13% | -6% | Grade 2 shoulder strain, shut down “a few weeks” |
| Cody Ponce 폰세 | TOR | 8% | 0% | -8% | Season-ending ACL surgery |
| Zach Eflin | BAL | 12% | 0% | -12% | Season-ending UCL surgery |
| Cade Horton | CHC | 15% | 0% | -15% | Season-ending UCL surgery |
| Name | Team | % Chg. In Projected RP IP | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Kuhnel | ATH | 455% (not a typo!) | Called up from minors and earned save in his second game; is he the closer? |
| Jack Perkins | ATH | 75% | Called up from minors |
| Paxton Schultz | WSN | 71% | Activated from IL |
| Mitch Spence | KCR | 67% | Called up |
| Brandon Eisert | CHW | 58% | Called up |
| Ryan Weiss 와이스 | HOU | 53% | Not pitching well enough for move to rotation, even with all the injuries |
| Tyler Samaniego | BOS | 50% | Called up |
| Ron Marinaccio | SDP | 43% | Has been key member of the bullpen so far, minimizing DFA risk |
| Michael Kelly | ATH | -31% | Optioned to minors |
| Bailey Falter | KCR | -31% | Elbow inflammation |
| Chris Murphy | CHW | -36% | Elbow impingement |
| Jared Koenig | MIL | -39% | Sprained elbow |
| Johan Oviedo | BOS | -45% | Aforementioned flexor strain |
| José Buttó | SFG | -52% | Blood clot in arm, out 4-6 weeks |
| Roddery Muñoz | HOU | -100% | DFA’d |
| Joe Ross | ARI | -100% | DFA’d |
| Robert Stephenson | LAA | -100% | Season-ending elbow surgery |
| Joey Lucchesi | LAA | -100% | DFA’d |
| Jedixson Paez | CHW | -100% | DFA’d |
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
The 2026 fantasy baseball season is still in its infancy, and in the grand scheme of things, we don’t really know what to expect over the next ~six months. Established studs will disappoint, new fantasy heroes will emerge, and performances will undulate to the point of causing madness. The unpredictability is why we have so much fun playing and analyzing this game of ours.
With that being said, trends are starting to set in and there are a few players that I am believing in more and more as the sample sizes continue to grow and the data becomes clearer. In this article, I’ll be highlighting five pitchers who have shown signs of breaking out that I believe will be sustainable throughout the 2026 season.
There will undoubtedly be some ups and downs, but I believe these arms are worth picking up/trading for before they become the established studs that I think they’ll develop into.
Since the majority of stats remain in small sample size territory, especially for starting pitchers who may have only made one start so far, I like to dig into the underlying metrics that could ultimately drive a change in results. One of those drivers is pitcher fastball velocity. We know that velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate and ERA, so all else being equal, higher fastball velocity should result in a higher strikeout rate and lower ERA. Of course, each individual pitcher start is a small sample, so you’re not always going to see the increased strikeout rate or lower ERA immediately, or vice versa. That’s why it’s prudent to track velocity changes early on to better predict where a pitcher’s strikeout rate and ERA may be headed.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
Yesterday, I shared some of the fun tiny sample size performances among the batter population. Now let’s flip over to pitchers. Unfortunately, the pitching side is going to be a little less fun because not every starter has even made a start yet. Let’s see what we can come up with.
After Wednesday’s introduction to this year’s Position Player Playing Time Changes, it’s time for pitchers! Every Friday, these roundups will work much the same as the position player ones, except I’ll split out starters and relievers. As with position players, this week’s compares changes since March 1, and next week I’ll transition to looking at week-to-week changes. Away we go:
