The Three-Headed Fastball

Once considered anomalies, cutters and sinkers have moved to the forefront of pitchers’ arsenals in 2026. As pitchers develop and pitching staffs look to push the boundaries, increased horizontal and vertical movement on fastball variants has given pitchers yet another edge over hitters. While these pitches have always existed, rather than being utilized as a primary pitch in isolation they are now being used more and more often in relationship to one another. This juxtaposition is what makes them such a challenge for hitters and increasingly popular as an arsenal tool.

So the real question for hitters has become: which fastball is coming? They are being used increasingly interchangeably, thrown from similar release points, with almost identical velocities, which compounds the challenge with each at-bat. From a fantasy perspective, this trend toward a certain profile or archetype of multi-fastball pitcher is one worth monitoring as we consider draft strategy — particularly in the later rounds — or waiver additions, as the never-ending search for value continues.

If we take all qualified starters in 2026 and examine their pitch arsenals, 38 of 79 haveat least 55% of their pitches coming from fastball variants — four-seamers, cutters, and sinkers. That is nearly half the league’s qualified starters. Of those 38, 24 deploy a true multi-fastball approach, mixing all three variants in meaningful proportions rather than leaning predominantly on one. A single variant above all others anchors the remaining 14: Jacob Misiorowski, for example, throws four-seamers almost exclusively, while Clay Holmes sits at 50% sinkers. This multi-fastball group is where we can potentially uncover some undervalued fantasy assets.

Cam Schlittler…

The most extreme, and so far most successful, example of the multi-fastball archetype in 2026 is Cam Schlittler. Unlike the majority of pitchers who lean on at least one off-speed offering, Schlittler throws over 90% fastball variants, and he has dominated so far in 2026, becoming a leading starter for anyone who picked him up in the mid-to-late rounds in March.
After a promising debut with the Yankees last season in which he mixed in considerably more off-speed, he has vaulted himself to the top of early Cy Young conversations with a three-variant fastball mix.

His three-fastball arsenal is the most compressed of the multi-fastball group. The four-seam and sinker diverge by 11.3 inches of horizontal movement, while the cutter breaks 14.2 inches in the opposite direction from the four-seam. While this movement is not as much as others, it moves enough that they end up in completely different parts of the zone but tunnel incredibly effectively at almost identical velocities, and importantly, he has the skill to be able to target different quadrants with each pitch.

Cam Schlittler, Fastball, Sinker and Cutter overlay

It’s tough to hit when you throw 3 different types of fastballs, all in the upper 90s. pic.twitter.com/EBnLvwk09F

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 27, 2026

But Schlittler is an outlier. The idea behind this multi-variant fastball profile is as a means to find value through a consistent archetype. Looking back at the table of multi-variant pitchers, there are numerous interesting examples of pitchers who have utilized this arsenal to great effect, providing excellent value on the waiver wire or in the later rounds, even in standard 12-team leagues, and more so in deeper formats.

What is particularly interesting from a fantasy perspective is the profile of pitchers who adopted a roughly equal split across all three variants. Below Schlittler in the ERA standings, this is where the real fantasy value lies — pitchers who have reinvented themselves to establish, or re-establish, a foothold in a major league rotation, and in doing so have become prime waiver wire and value targets that the market has been slow to price in.

Moving Sideways

As we move deeper into the multi-fastball group, two names stand out for both their results and their contrasting risk profiles: Emerson Hancock and Randy Vásquez. Their arsenals differ, where Hancock leans sinker, Vásquez leans cutter; yet their movement profiles tell a remarkably similar story. Both pairs of fastball variants arrive at identical velocities, diverge sharply in opposite horizontal directions, and are paired with a secondary put-away pitch that exploits the timing disruption the three fastballs create. The surface-level numbers reflect this symmetry too, both sit at exactly -0.60 ERA minus FIP, outperforming their FIP by the same margin. That is not a coincidence.

Hancock is the safer of the two long-term, and is likely no longer available in your league. But his rise, establishing a permanent spot in one of the league’s deepest starting staffs, is one we take a lot of lessons from. Dropping his arm slot by 10 degrees unlocked significantly more sweeper movement, giving him a genuine put-away pitch to complement the four-seam, sinker, and cutter. But this is only effective because of the foundation laid by his four-seam and sinker. Both pitchers are generating positive run value simultaneously, +1.8 RV/100 on each, +5 and +4 in total run value, respectively. Generating meaningful value from two fastballs moving in opposite directions at 95 mph is a durable foundation for a mid-rotation starter. His 84.8% LOB rate will normalize, and his hard-hit rate of 37% bears monitoring, but his 1.68 BB/9, 3.04 SIERA, and elite movement profile suggest the regression, when it comes, will be modest rather than dramatic. He is a hold with confidence in all formats.

Vásquez is the more complex case. His ERA- of 69 is elite, better than Hancock’s 78, and his status as a fixture in one of baseball’s best rotations means his floor is high. But his xFIP- of 95 against Hancock’s 75 is a significant gap, driven almost entirely by home run suppression that his cutter-heavy profile does not fully explain. His SIERA of 3.79 versus Hancock’s 3.04 tells the same story: the underlying skills are good, but not as dominant as the results suggest. He is not a sell, but if you are in a position to acquire value elsewhere, Vásquez is one of the more logical sell-high candidates among this group.

The “Quiet” Aces?

Now, perhaps two of the biggest surprises from a fantasy pitching perspective entering 2026 are the performances of Nick Martinez and Davis Martin. While it can be easy for results from the Rays and White Sox to go under the radar, these two have made significant noise, both sitting around a 1.5-1.6 ERA so far in 2026. Both have deeper arsenals that are split fairly evenly across six pitch types. Davis Martin actually came in just under the 55% cut-off at 54.7%, but given how closely his profile mirrors Martinez, while offering more stable underlying numbers, he is a worthy inclusion.

What makes this pairing particularly interesting is not just their results, but what their contact profiles reveal about why the multi-fastball approach works even without elite strikeout stuff. Martin’s GB/FB of 1.10 and 40.4% ground ball rate combined with a 5.8% HR/FB rate are not coincidental outcomes — they are the direct product of a sinker-cutter mix jamming hitters from the same release point in opposite directions. He will not miss a ton of bats, but his 2.38 FIP and 3.00 SIERA tell you the results are real, and he is well worth holding if you were able to pick him up early.

Utilizing a similar arsenal with a very similar movement profile, Nick Martinez has been off to a great start in 2026 with a 1.51 ERA. His GB/FB of 1.05 and 40.7% ground ball rate are nearly identical to Martin’s, and he is genuinely suppressing fly balls through his sinker-cutter mix, which is a structural feature of the multi-fastball profile rather than luck. His RS/9 of 3.35 sits comfortably between his ERA and xFIP and is probably the most honest reflection of his true talent level. The underlying data suggests some regression may be coming, but the profile tells you the floor is considerably higher than the xFIP implies, and his changeup has proven to miss bats working off the three fastballs at the top of the zone. The contact suppression is real, and some swing and miss is there, it is just not quite as dominant as a 1.51 ERA suggests.

His teammate Drew Rasmussen is worth noting here as proof of concept — a virtually identical multi-fastball profile with fully aligned estimators and none of the strand rate inflation. The market will catch up to these pitchers eventually.

What is interesting is that from these two similar movement profiles of fastball heavy pitchers, there is a standout from each pairing, and who will likely have more long-term success. A pitcher mixing sinkers, cutters, and four-seamers above 40% combined usage will generally produce the ground ball rates and contact suppression that keep ERA stable, but it is the addition of genuine strikeout ability, while also not walking batters on top of that foundation, that separates a backend streamer from a mid-rotation anchor worth targeting several rounds earlier than ADP suggests.

So, What To Look For?

Both Martin and Hancock post K-BB% figures north of 22%, legitimately elite marks that sit on top of an already-strong contact suppression foundation. When you are identifying multi-fastball pitchers to target, whether in drafts, on waivers, or in trades, a K-BB% north of 20% on top of this contact profile is the clearest signal. This, paired with an arsenal that can help provide stability, is something to target moving forward

From a strategy perspective, with more pitchers able to generate greater movement at higher velocities, this group will only grow. But as we have seen with the rise of Schlittler, the establishment of Hancock and Vásquez in elite rotations, and the emergence of Martin and Martinez as reliable options few managers were drafting in March, there are clear patterns and profile similarities that can be used to identify pitchers on the waiver wire or in the draft process. Fastball diversification, the ability to tunnel multiple variants from the same velocity and release point, means this pathway is likely to become even more prevalent in seasons to come.