FAAB & Waiver Wire Report: Pitchers (Week 10)
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My son competed in the State Track Meet this weekend, so I’ll only had time to cover the pitchers while Jack Dorfman covered the hitters.
In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.
Starting Pitchers
Jared Jones: Normally, I don’t add players with such a high rostership rate, but this is the first weekend some teams could bid on him, and he’s here at the top of the rankings. He got lit up in his debut with 5 ER in 4 IP on 6 K, 2 BB, and 7 H. He attacked hitters with a 99-mph fastball and a slider, curve, and changeup that our STUPH models loved. Hopefully, the bad debut will suppress his FAAB price.
Spencer Miles: I wish the team would let him throw over 70 pitches (67 max so far), but otherwise, he’s been great. Since he started stretching out, he has a 0.59 ERA (2.59 xFIP), 0.85 WHIP. And he’s doing it with an elite sinker (10% SwStr%, 64% GB%). I’m tempted to move him ahead of Jones.
Gage Jump: A .500 BABIP ruined a solid debut, leading to 4 ER in 5 IP. He was able to strike out five batters while only walking one. One issue I see is that he was basically a two-pitch guy (fastball-slider), throwing his curve and change a combined ~10% of the time (MLB and AAA). Without a third reliable pitch, he could be predictable, like in this start, and get hit around. I’m still ranking him high with so few other decent options available.
David Sandlin: The 25-year-old was solid in his debut with 1 ER, 4 K, and 0 BB in 6 IP. He attacked batters with a 97 mph fastball and five other pitches, but he threw his curve the most (30% usage). He’s a must-add at this point to see if the results can continue. Here is how his pitches performed in AAA.
Griffin Jax: Since transitioning to being a starter, Jax has a 1.29 ERA (3.99 xFIP), 1.14 WHIP (3.4 BB/9), and a 7.3 K/9. He would be a decent add, but he’s just not going deep into games. In only two of the six starts, he’s gone 5 IP with a high of 66 pitches. In his last start, he went 2 IP and 38 pitches. Talent doesn’t seem to be holding him back; it’s the chance to go deeper into games.
Martín Pérez: Boringly solid. While his 2.70 ERA is unsustainable, his ERA estimators hover around 3.90. Our STUPH models aren’t a fan with a 92 Pitching+ and 4.90 botERA, mainly based on a 90 mph fastball. Perez looks like a solid add with his next opponents being the Pirates, White Sox, and Giants.
Sean Burke: Has a steady/boring 3.90 ERA (4.09 xFIP), 1.15 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9. That is usable in some leagues, at least as a streamer.
Stephen Kolek: While he’s not striking anyone out (5.5 K/9), he is not walking anyone (1.7 BB/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (48% GB%). The .209 BABIP will eventually regress upward, but he looks to be a boring 4.00 ERA pitcher.
Coleman Crow: In 14 IP, he has suppressed hard contact (.222 BABIP, 0.6 HR/9), thereby keeping his ratios in check (3.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). Looking forward, his ERA estimators put him as a 5.00 ERA talent while our STUPH models love him (2.48 botERA, 111 Pitching+). I’m giving him a boost based on the STUPH models, but he could drop a ton depending on his next start.
Andrew Alvarez: I put Alvarez with the starters, and he makes a great divider between starters I’d consider rostering and where a middle relief option might be the better decision. Some of the guys listed after him are streamable, but Alvarez averages 3 IP per appearance with a 9.8 K/9, 4.02 ERA (2.75 xFIP), and 1.28 WHIP.
Kai-Wei Teng: As a starter, he has a 3.27 ERA (4.10 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP (4.9 BB/9), and 9.4 K/9. His walks are an issue as they push his WHIP (equivalent of a 4.46 ERA) into the unrosterable territory. A streaming option, but not much more until he drops the walks.
Andre Pallante: Consistently a low-4.00 ERA talent. This season, his strikeout rate increased from 6.1 K/9 to 7.1 K/9, but his groundball rate dropped from 59% to 52%. In the end, his xFIP (includes just K, BB, and GB) dropped from 4.16 to 4.15. The same pitcher.
Anthony Kay: Started pounding the strike zone in May with his walk rate dropping from 5.0 BB/9 to 3.0 BB/9 while his strikeouts are up from 5.4 K/9 to 7.9 K/9. Overall, his xFIP dropped from 6.06 to 4.13. While a low-4.00 ERA is not great, it is decent enough to use in his current two-start week (vs MIN, vs DET).
Eric Lauer: The Dodgers have him throwing strikes (1.5 BB/9 vs 4.0 BB/9 in Toronto) and a bit harder (91.1 mph vs 90.4 mph). I’m not sure the improvement, if it sticks, is enough to make him worth adding. Remains a streamer.
Slade Cecconi: A .332 BABIP has inflated his 5.25 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Otherwise, he’s been a low-4.00 ERA talent on the season. He has shown some improvement by dropping his walk rate from 3.9 BB/9 in April to 2.0 BB/9 in May.
Keider Montero: In the middle of a two-start week (vs LAA, at CWS). He has mixed results in the first game, going 5 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, and 4 ER. After looking over his profile way too long, a two-step like the one this week is a perfect time to add him. He should head to the waiver wire next week.
Troy Melton: In two starts so far (BAL, CHW), Melton is not missing any bats (8% SwStr%, 2.8 K/9) while throwing the kitchen sink (six pitches between 43% and 7% usage). Only his curveball, the pitch he throws the least, has a swinging strike rate over 10%. He needs to start missing bats at some point.
Walbert Ureña: Hit suppression (.271 BABIP, 0.5 HR/9) has him with a 2.44 ERA, while other indicators point to a mid-4.00 or 5.00 ERA talent. In leagues counting WHIP, his 5.1 BB/9 is leading to an unplayable 1.38 WHIP.
Zack Littell: Littell’s rostership isn’t up because he’s good (5.23 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), it’s because he had two starts this week. In the first one against Cleveland, he was solid with 7 K, 2 BB, and 1 ER in 7 IP. A flyball pitcher (34% GB%) is rarely successful (2.5 HR/9), throwing a 91.5 mph fastball.
Jonah Tong: I can’t recommend Tong. He walks too many batters. In two games this season, he has more walks (5) than strikeouts (3). In AAA this year, he posted 5.7 BB/9. In the majors last year, it was a 4.3 BB/9 (1.77 WHIP). I’ll gamble elsewhere.
Lucas Giolito: How he’s won twice with a 4.97 ERA (7.20 xFIP) and twice as many walks (12) as strikeouts (6). His 1.74 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 6.93 ERA. There are zero reasons to roster a pitcher with zero control and a 90 mph fastball.
Kumar Rocker: While Rocker allowed no Runs on Saturday (vs KC), he walked more batters (3) than he struck out (2). Rocker’s issue has always been allowing too many walks. This season, he has been able to limit hard contact (.268 BABIP, 0.8 HR/9), leading to a 2.54 ERA while his ERA estimators a run higher. The idea of Kumar Rocker is better than Kumar Rocker.
Pitching Prospects
River Ryan: In AAA, the 27-year-old righty has a 2.05 ERA (2.86 xFIP), 0.91 WHIP, and 11.9 K/9 in 22 IP.
Karson Milbrandt: In AA, the 22-year-old righty has a 1.06 ERA (2.63 xFIP), 0.90 WHIP, and 13.4 K/9 in 42 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | 67% | 75% | 8% |
| Lucas Giolito | 38% | 41% | 3% |
| Keider Montero | 34% | 35% | 1% |
| Griffin Jax | 33% | 39% | 6% |
| Sean Burke | 32% | 33% | 1% |
| Jonah Tong | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Walbert Urena | 26% | 31% | 5% |
| Slade Cecconi | 22% | 23% | 1% |
| Stephen Kolek | 19% | 43% | 24% |
| Andre Pallante | 18% | 23% | 5% |
| Martin Perez | 16% | 22% | 6% |
| Kumar Rocker | 16% | 22% | 6% |
| River Ryan | 16% | 20% | 4% |
| Troy Melton | 15% | 37% | 22% |
| Anthony Kay | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Gage Jump | 10% | 27% | 17% |
| Zack Littell | 8% | 13% | 5% |
| Spencer Miles | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| Kai-Wei Teng | 5% | 23% | 18% |
| Eric Lauer | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Karson Milbrandt | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Coleman Crow | 2% | 6% | 4% |
| Andrew Alvarez | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| David Sandlin | 1% | 13% | 12% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks.
Caleb Kilian: Average reliever who is the closer.
Kirby Yates: Good reliever who is possibly the closer
Antonio Senzatela: Average reliever who shares the closer duties.
Hogan Harris: Average pitcher who is sharing the closer’s role.
Daniel Lynch IV: Good reliever who is the backup for a struggling closer.
Drew Anderson: Average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Yoendrys Gómez: Below-average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Bryan King: Below-average reliever who may still be the closer for a week or so.
Sam Bachman: Average reliever who seems to be the backup closer.
Will Vest: Average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Kyle Finnegan: Below-average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Richard Lovelady: Below-average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Taylor Rogers: Below-average reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Keaton Winn: Average reliever who is the backup closer.
Grant Taylor: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Fernando Cruz: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Jason Adam: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Kyle Hurt: Good pitcher who is one of the backup closers.
Adrian Morejon: Good pitcher who is a step or two away from closing.
Hunter Gaddis: Below-average reliever who is the backup closer.
Ian Seymour: Average reliever who is the backup closer.
Carmen Mlodzinski: Good pitcher who is a few steps from closing and starting.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | 24% | 30% | 6% |
| Grant Taylor | 23% | 26% | 3% |
| Caleb Kilian | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Jason Adam | 20% | 22% | 2% |
| Kirby Yates | 19% | 24% | 5% |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 16% | 19% | 3% |
| Bryan King | 15% | 22% | 7% |
| Hogan Harris | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Adrian Morejon | 13% | 16% | 3% |
| Kyle Finnegan | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Ian Seymour | 10% | 15% | 5% |
| Fernando Cruz | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Will Vest | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Hunter Gaddis | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Keaton Winn | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Daniel Lynch | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Taylor Rogers | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Drew Anderson | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Sam Bachman | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Richard Lovelady | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Kyle Hurt | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Yoendrys Gomez | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Orion Kerkering is putting up good numbers