FAAB Frenzy and Waivers Wild: Week 11

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 10 Overview

Ronald Acuña Jr. was the biggest producer of the week, smashing five homers and stealing five bases. Acuña only had two home runs heading into the week. Joc Pederson and Yordan Alvarez hit five apiece as well. Ben Rice went 12-for-62 (.462) and tied for the lead in runs batted (11) with Ian Happ and the Angels new, surprise no. 3 hitter, Vaughn Grissom. Jarren Duran has been one of the hottest hitters over the last two weeks, posting a 5×5 roto line of 10-6-15-1-.333. Duran is one of four hitters who earned $40-plus in the 12-team Player Rater, behind Juan Soto, Ketel Marte and James Wood. Boston’s interim manager Chad Tracy isn’t playing games with Duran and his playing time. Duran and Michael Busch earned the most plate appearances (130) in May.

There were several two-start pitchers who only ended up making one start either due to injury, demotion or rotation shift. All in all, there were 29 two-start pitchers if we include Spencer Miles (TOR) and Zack Littell who entered contests after an opener (Littell started one-of-two). Of those 29, six of them earned a win in each start — a rate of 21 percent. The two-game winners were Jacob Misiorowski, Littell, Anthony Kay, Nick Lodolo, Jack Leiter and Braxton Ashcraft. Littell ended up being a sneaky (lucky?) acquisition in NFBC Main Events last week, with an average winning bid of $3.50. Unsurprisingly, The Miz continued to dominate, leading all pitchers in innings pitched (20) and strikeouts (20). Chicago White Sox righty Sean Burke didn’t earn a win in either of his two starts, but pitched extremely well — 12.1 IP – 6 H – 3 ER – 4 BB – 14 K. Griffin Canning, Zebby Matthews and recently promoted southpaw Jordan Wicks of the Cubs all lost both of their starts.

How about some fireworks in May in the form of Lucas Erceg Implosion Week. Erceg served up nine hits and five earned runs over two appearances. He also gave up three runs in an appearance at the end of the previous week. Erceg has 11 saves, but his ratios are atrocious (6.33 ERA, 1.92 WHIP). His 13.3% walk rate isn’t even the highest among closers (if he’s even a closer anymore). That distinction belongs to Devin Williams, 15.1%. Erceg could be moved to lower leverage situations and a committee of righty John Schreiber and lefties Daniel Lynch IV and Matt Strahm can manage duties.

NFBC OC and Fantrax – Most Added in FAAB

This was the lowest average spend in NFBC OCs in four weeks, though there was a clear high-spend target: Pittsburgh Pirates starter Jared Jones. His first start in nearly two years didn’t go well (seven hits, five runs), but fantasy managers didn’t seem to hold it against him. His second start will come later this week, at Houston. In Weeks 12 and 13, Jones lines up to face the Dodgers at home (a potential matchup with Pitcher Shohei Ohtani) and the Athletics, in Sacramento.

Troy Melton had the second-highest AWB among starting pitchers in the OC. White Sox righty David Sandlin was third, and the most popular add on Fantrax. Sandlin was drafted in the 11th round of the 2022 draft by the Kansas City Royals. He was traded to the Boston Red Sox, who then shipped him to the White Sox in the Jordan Hicks trade (the other side always wins!). Sandlin was dealing with arm soreness and back issues in spring, so he missed Twins’ spring camp and didn’t have a shot at making the rotation. He had a late start to the season, but has been lights-out in the minors and deserves his promotion. His big-league debut against the Twins last week went better than expected and involved retiring 18 straight batters. Sandlin lines up for a road two-step against the Twins again and the Phillies.

The teens-dollar range was the sweet spot for a quintet of SPs in 12-team leagues, all in the American League West: rookie Gage Jump, Kai-Wei Teng and Tatsuya Imai of the Astros, and Walbert Ureña and Grayson Rodriguez of the Angels. Ureña and Rodriguez were mostly targeted for home starts against the Rockies, while both building up a bit of consumer confidence by pitching well over the last couple of starts. Ureña is 22 and throws heat, a four-seamer and sinker that average 96-97 mph. His 2.44 ERA isn’t supported by his peripherals (4.39 xFIP, 4.60 SIERA) and he has walked nearly 13% of batters faced in just over 40 innings (eight starts, two relief appearances). After that start, Ureña should face the Astros at home, and line up for a road two-step in Week 13 against the Diamondbacks and Athletics. Meanwhile, Rodriguez should earn a two starts in Week 12, against the Astros and Rays at home. Imai is probably the best acquisition of the group. His ADP rose to the mid-100s in the spring and his first month in the majors were a disaster. He was justifiably dropped by hundreds of managers, but seems to have turned it around. In his two starts last week, he pitched six innings in each, allowing just three hits and two runs. He pitched six innings in the Astros’ no-hitter on May 25.

Curtis Mead has never been much help in a fantasy setting. Looks like all that the Australian-born infielder needed was some positive mojo because he has fit right in with Washington’s  MLB-best offense. Mead is sporting a 46% hard-hit rate, an 11.3% barrel rate, and has crushed eight homers in 145 plate appearances. Most importantly, he has established an everyday role in the Nationals offense, hitting second against lefties and third against righties. I wouldn’t expect Mead to rise and burn like teammate Joey Wiemer, but it wouldn’t be reasonable to expect a full-fledged breakout or to continue to produce at this level. Let’s see how Mead and the Nats hold up against some tough pitching here, facing the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rays and Phillies over the next three weeks.

The Nationals bullpen has been one of the league’s worst, but their group has been closer to league average over the last 30 days. They started the season with Clayton Beeter as their closer, though Gus Varland started to mix in, Beeter went on the IL, and then Richard Lovelady recently joined the ninth-inning parties. Beeter was activated from the IL on May 21 and has yet to allow a run in four appearances, earning and closing out two save opportunities last week. Beeter is slowly pulling away as the frontrunner, but be forewarned that it’s not always going to be as smooth as it was in Week 10.

Week 11 Predictions

• Tony Santillan earns two saves for the Reds
• David Hamilton is one of at least two hitters with four stolen bases; Nasim Nuñez might be one of the others
• Willy Adames and Bryce Eldridge hit seven home runs combined
• Kyle Harrison pitches a seven-inning gem at Coors Field next weekend
• Trevor Larnach is a top-12 hitter in 5×5 standard roto

Drop of the Week

With the quick promotion and demotion of Pirates outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez, we are reminded to be careful with overspending precious FAAB dollars or using our top waiver priority for rookie hitters with no major league experience. Valdez did hit two home runs during his short stay, but they were his only two hits, and he was heftily overmatched. A good rule of thumb: if you haven’t heard of a player, or no very little about him, do your own research and try to make logical assumptions about staying power based on the depth of a roster. Valdez’s situation was not as fortuitous as A.J. Ewing’s, and even Ewing is no lock to stick around until the All-Star break.