Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. Since we’ve finally reached May, I’ve started using 2026 data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
Adley Rutschman says, “See? I’m not just good in real life, but in fantasy baseball, too!”
On the Agenda:
Closer Chaos
Quick Hits
Various News and Notes
Streaming Pitchers
Closer Chaos
There is always some chaos to report! Last night’s mayhem involved Giants reliever, Ryan Walker. Walker entered the bottom of the ninth with a 2-1 lead in the first game of the doubleheader. Walker gave up a single, run-scoring triple, and the game-winning single to rookie outfielder Justin Crawford. Interim manager Don Mattingly is now 3-0 and also, this is pretty cool:
The Crawfords are the second father-son set to each have a walk-off RBI for the same manager (RBI official since 1920)
Carl & Justin Crawford for Don Mattingly Gary & Daryle Ward for Lou Piniella
Back to this bullpen: it’s an absolute mess! Manager Tony Vitello should make lefty Erik Miller and righty Caleb Kilian the co-closers. Gregory Santos could eventually be a dark horse candidate (I can’t quit that guy).
Tigers veteran righty Kyle Finnegan earned his first save of the season in a 5-2 victory over the Braves. Kenley Jansen blew Wednesday’s save, but isn’t in danger of losing his job, though Finnegan and Will Vest will earn opportunities from time to time. Over 15 appearances (15.2 innings), Finnegan has 15 strikeouts and just one earned run allowed, but has issued 10 free passes.
Meanwhile, my boy “Perky” Jack Perkins earned his third save of the season in a 6-3 victory over the Rangers:
Quick Hits
The hits keep coming for the Mets. Oft-injured outfielder Luis Robert Jr. hits the IL with a lumbar spine disc herniation. His stay will be more than the minimum, as he will be shut down for 7-10 days and given an injection. The Mets also designated relief pitcher Carl Edwards Jr. for assignment, claimed infielders Andy Ibañez and Eric Wagaman off waivers from the Athletics and Twins, respectively. It’s not even May and their no. 3 hitter is MJ Melendez. Godspeed, Mets fans.
It was his sixth time allowing four or more earned runs in his career 62 starts. Two of those outings were against the Cardinals.
The Braves expect Sean Murphy to be activated early next week. Murphy won’t play every day, but should manage some starts behind the plate and as the DH. None of the Braves bench bats have minor-league options, so it’s likely that whoever gets called up if Michael Harris II goes on the injured list, is the player optioned.
Have a day, Kyle Schwarber!
Kyle Schwarber of the @Phillies is the first MLB player to have a day with:
Brandon Woodruff was pulled after 21 pitches on Thursday after averaging 85 mph on his fastball. Woodruff claims it’s dead arm and that he didn’t feel pain. Regardless, the Brewers will skip his next start and will further assess whether an IL stint is needed. Logan Henderson (17.2 IP – 1.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 35.6% K, 12.3% BB) would likely get the call to make the start for Woodruff against the Cardinals in the first half of the week.
A quick check-in on pitchers on rehab assignments:
Tatsuya Imai has been out since April 13 with right arm fatigue and made his first rehab start on Tuesday. Imai allowed five runs and three walks, with just two strikeouts in two innings. He is expected to make another rehab start, which will likely occur with Triple-A Sugar Land. If Imai doesn’t require any more rehab starts beyond the next one, he should return sometime between May 11 and May 14 for the series against the Mariners.
Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole could both be back in the Yankees rotation the week of May 11. Rodón pitched 4.1 scoreless innings in his first rehab start in High-A last week. On Thursday, he dazzled in a rehab start with the Double-A squad, punching out eight batters with one run allowed on five hits in 5.1 innings.
Cole is up to three rehab starts now. He has allowed eight runs (four homers) in 14.1 innings, but has a 10:1 K:BB and only needed 60 pitches to in Wednesday’s Double-A Somerset start to nearly reach six innings (5.2). A rotation of Rodón , Cole, Max Fried, Ryan Weathers, and Cam Schlittler will be a nasty one. The Bronx Bombers would have no choice but to boot Will Warren from it.
It may not seem wise to start pitchers in Sacramento, but we’re not in the dead heat of summer yet and we can make an exception for Cantillo tomorrow. The Athletics have struggled against souhthpaws and have the fourth lowest wRC+ (73) against them. Cantillo will have to be on point with his control. Nick Kurtz has been a walks machine and has a 22.7% walk rate against lefties. In the seventh inning on Thursday, Kurtz was intentionally walked and is now tied with Ted Williams for the third-most consecutive games with a walk (19).
Watch Scott totally redeem himself after walking five of the 10 batters he faced in his 2026 debut.
Pitcher for Tomorrow: Reid Detmers (LHP, LAA) vs. NYM
It’s a solid matchup for Detmers against the reeling Mets who have a .343 SLG and 78 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (bottom five). The Mets might be rolling out Wagaman, Ibañez, Austin Slater, and Tyrone Taylor on Saturday.
Of course, Ruiz couldn’t help himself and swiped a bag to complete the combo meal.
On the Agenda:
Closer Chaos
Quick Hits
Various News and Notes
Streaming Pitchers
Closer Chaos
It’s been an inauspicious start to Kurt Suzuki’s managerial career, mostly due to his mismanagement of the bullpen. Recently released reliever Jordan Romano has all four of the Los Angeles Angels’ saves; the most recent one was way back on April 6. Suzuki continues to deploy veteran lefty Drew Pomeranz in high-leverage opportunities, and it keeps backfiring. Here’s what happened on Wednesday:
The Angels were hoping that Kirby Yates could help the team out in late innings soon, but Yates has been getting shelled on his rehab assignment — seven hits and seven runs allowed over three innings/three appearances. Righty Chase Silseth was mentioned as a potential late-inning option, but his control has been poor (10 walks over 11 innings) and Sam Bachman has 10 walks in 15.1 innings. Fireballer righty Ryan Zeferjahn has been slowly moving up the leverage ladder and might be a waiver wire save spec before the week is over. Zeferjahn has struggled in multi-inning outings, so perhaps management gets the memo and just have him pitch one inning per appearance. Ben Joyce just began a rehab assignment and if all goes well, he could be activated in 3-4 weeks. All in all, it’s full blown chaos in Anaheim!
Texas Rangers lefty Jacob Latz is one step closer to being their full-time ninth-inning guy. He followed Nathan Eovaldi’s seven scoreless innings to fire two scoreless innings of his own (1 H, 1 K) to lock down his second save of the season.
Manager Skip Schumaker might ask righty Jakob Junis to occasionally close games out. Nevertheless, Latz has been the most dominant and reliable option in the bullpen and could run away with the job despite being a lefty. Latz has a 14:3 K:BB with just five hits and two runs allowed over 16.2 innings (13 appearances).
With Miami closer Pete Fairbanks sidelined on the injured list, Calvin Faucher was called upon to close out the Dodgers on Wednesday. Faucher was shaky, walking three batters, but escaped unscathed, earning his first save of 2026. The Marlins took 2-of-3 from the Dodgers.
Quick Hits
#OldFriend (or frenemy?) Jarred Kelenic was called up by the White Sox on Wednesday. He pinch-hit for Luisangel Acuña in the seventh, his first at-bat since April 23, 2025 with the Braves. Kelenic batted .202 with 6 HR, 18 RBI, and 7 SB in 104 PA in Triple-A.
With starting pitcher Casey Mize hitting the IL, the Tigers called up Jace Jung. Jung appeared in 21 games last season (.106/.236/.106) and owns a horrific .190/.315/.230 slash over 149 career major-league plate appearances. Jung shouldn’t be up for long.
With George Springer activated for the Jays, Eloy Jiménez was designated for assignment. Jiménez went 9-31 (.290) with 3 BB and 3 RBI in his part-time three-week stretch.
The Texas Rangers expect to activate Wyatt Langford on Saturday. He hit just one home run in his first 20 games before the forearm injury, with his hard-hit rate down considerably from last season (48.4% to 37.7%).
Hunter Goodman smashed two dingers in Great American Ball Park:
He went 3-4 for four runs scored and increased his batting average from .250 to .269 (a reminder of how early it still is). Goodman’s 37.3% strikeout rate remains among the highest in the majors. His strikeout rate last season was 26.3%.
Right-handed pitcher Hunter Dobbins will make his Cardinals and 2026 debut on Thursday against the Pirates. A rookie last season, Dobbins made 11 starts for the Red Sox and came over to St. Louis in the Willson Contreras deal in December. He has a 3-0 record with a 4.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19.8% K, and 9.4% BB over five starts for Triple-A Memphis.
Various News and Notes
A couple of valuable closers should be back soon. Daniel Palencia of the Cubs is expected to be activated this weekend as is Phillies righty, Jhoan Duran. Palencia suffered a lat injury on his non-throwing side and Duran is recovering from a minor oblique injury. The quick turnarounds are a good reminder for us to not get carried away with the interim closer hype in fantasy free agency. Caleb Thielbar and Brad Keller were expensive acquisitions in FAAB leagues two weeks ago and we’ll soon be able to say that those dollars were officially wasted.
Injury is officially added to insult as first-round fantasy pick Garrett Crochet was placed on the injured list (retroactive to Sunday) with shoulder inflammation. Crochet says he felt fatigued in his last start and that he lost strength in his shoulder in spring training and really never got it back. Crochet is “pretty confident” he will return by the time those 15 IL days have passed. Struggling starter Brayan Bello appears to have a stay of execution with another turn in the rotation. Sonny Gray should be back next week, but with Crochet out, the Red Sox promoted 25-year-old lefty Jake Bennett. Bennett will make his major-league debut this weekend.
After getting run out of the game by the Nationals in the first inning last Tuesday (four earned runs), Braves manager Walt Weiss announced that Reynaldo López would be moved to the bullpen to work on his mechanics. On Wednesday night, López entered the contest in the eighth inning, and only needed 17 pitches to earn six outs and get credited with the win after Matt Olson’s walk-off home run.
It’s a long season and perhaps López works his way back into the rotation, but it’s also possible that he sticks in the bullpen. It would be a quite formidable one when Raisel Iglesias returns, joining López, Robert Suarez, Dylan Lee, and Didier Fuentes. Even former Rockies gas-can Tyler Kinley has pitched well (1.38 ERA, no homers allowed in 13 innings).
Only 11 games on this Transition Thursday and not many sub-50% starting pitchers on the slate. His Yahoo roster rate has dropped to 27% after two subpar starts, but both those outings were against the scorching Braves offense. Painter is in a good position for a bounce-back start on the back end of a doubleheader where the Giants may not be rolling out their optimal lineup.
Other Options: None, though if you don’t mind some potential ratio damage, Astros righty Peter Lambert should be good for six or more strikeouts.
Pitcher for Tomorrow: Joey Cantillo (LHP, CLE) at ATH
It may not seem wise to start pitchers in Sacramento, but we’re not in the dead heat of summer yet and we can make an exception for Cantillo tomorrow. The Athletics have struggled against souhthpaws and have the fourth lowest wRC+ (70) against them. Cantillo will have to be on point with his control. Nick Kurtz has been a walks machine and has a 22.7% walk rate against lefties.
It feels crazy to type, but we are already ~20% of the way through the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Most starting pitchers have six starts under their belts, and this is roughly the point of the season where fantasy managers start to believe in what we are seeing. As each day goes on, it’s harder and harder to make the case for sample sizes not being legitimate.
I think one of the hardest things to do in fantasy is pull off a sell high deal. You have to part with a player who has done well for you and try to properly value the likely underperforming asset that you will acquire in return. It’s a lot easier said than done, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.
If I could choose just one underlying skill-based metric to evaluate a starting pitcher on, it might very well be SwStr%, especially for fantasy purposes, assuming your league uses strikeouts in some shape or form. Obviously, there’s more to effective pitching than just generating whiffs. However, with a -0.42 correlation with ERA and 0.85 correlation with strikeout rate among qualified pitchers from 2021 to 2025, it tells you a whole lot all by itself. So with that in mind, let’s peruse the starting pitchers that have experienced the greatest gains and declines in SwStr%.
Compared to the last couple weeks, nothing hugely consequential with this week’s set of notable pitcher playing time changes. But nonetheless, we’ve got some nuggets to report:
Significant Projected Playing Time Changes, SP, 4/17 to 4/24
Earlier this week on the CBS Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Chris Towers noted that Shane McClanahan was struggling more than he would have expected, even with his STUPH model grades down. Chris wondered if a pitcher’s STUPH drops to a new level, does the pitcher perform worse than those who were already at that level? Pitchers need time to adjust to their new talent level. Well, I decided to give the question a quick look.
When McClanahan last threw back in 2023, he had a Pitching+ of 115, and now has a Pitching+ of 90. While he has the same number of strikeouts (9 K/9), the rest of his results have been horrible (5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) as his walks have ballooned (5.5 BB/9). The biggest issue with analyzing this change is that it is extreme, with a two-year gap between throwing. I needed to simplify the search.
Finding a large enough sample set was a pain. The set needs to include starting pitchers (I stayed away from combining starters and relievers) with a STUPH decline into a range with a large enough sample of other pitchers already pitching in that range. And all this occurs in the few seasons that STUPH models have existed. In the end, I went with Pitching+ as my metric because I wanted the pitcher’s overall talent. Also, I wanted a quick snapshot, not a full-blown study. Future studies could use several factors.
For the sample, I took all starters with at least 40 IP in back-to-back seasons. I subdivided that group into pitchers who saw their Pitching+ drop between five and 10 points into the 95 to 105 Pitching+ range (n=26). Then I created another group of pitchers with a 97.5 to 102.5 Pitching+ range in subsequent seasons (n=37).
Here are the average values from the two samples.
Results when Pitching+ Drops and Remains Constant.
STUPH Model
Previous Pitching +
Pitching+
Stuff+
Location+
IP
ERA
FIP
xFIP
SIERA
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
Pitching+ Decline to Range
106.8
100.2
96.7
102.8
108
4.50
4.51
4.26
4.34
8.70
3.39
1.35
Pitching + Stable in Range
100.0
100.1
97.5
102.1
125
3.86
3.97
4.07
4.15
8.45
2.84
1.24
Even though Pitching+ was the factor controlled for, both sets’ Stuff+ and Location+ values ended up similar. And that’s about it for any similarities. The declining pitchers threw fewer innings (possible injury?) with an ERA that’s 0.64 higher and a WHIP that’s 0.11 higher. These pitchers seemed to struggle at the new talent level compared to pitchers who had time to adjust to it.
The effects seen by this one small subset mean someone should dive in to verify the results. The different ways to cut up the data could be endless. Different change sizes? Include TheBot Values? Do changes in Stuff values lead to changes in Location values? After a season with worse STUPH, do the pitchers’ results improve? As long as the sample sizes remain reasonable, the combinations are endless. I’m afraid Chris opened a can of worms.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
Trades are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball home leagues. The conversations around them help keep us connected and engaged, and make our league more fun.
Striking deals isn’t always easy. There are often hurt feelings around lopsided proposals, league-mates who value players differently, and that one guy who wants to veto everything. We can improve our fantasy squads with the waiver wire, but our collective hit rates are low. Quite often, those pickups backfire — a hitter’s cold streak or a pitcher’s blowup, which inevitably leads to dropping the player. The one facet we have control of in home leagues is trading.
Managers are often emotionally tied to certain players – specifically, missed draft targets or players from their favorite baseball team. Also, we’re not all great at zooming out to a long-term view and getting stuck in the moment. Good analysis can be washed away by recency bias and small sample sizes. No one can force us to make a deal, so it’s the one element of the game we have some control over and can use proper value assessment and negotiation techniques to our advantage.
This column will recommend hitters and pitchers to try selling high or buying low, and touch on trade strategies. No two leagues or two managers are the same. You know your league-mates best: what kind of deal they’ll scoff at, which player type they’re willing to deal for or acquire, and how good their player and market-valuation skills are. I’ll dig deep and present realistic opportunities.
SIERA and K-BB% to Spot Under- and Over-Performing SPs
ERA indicators or ERA estimators or peripherals — these are interchangeable terms for a set of Sabermetric statistics that fantasy baseball managers use to help predict future performance of pitchers. These ERA indicators (xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are not interchangeable since they include different inputs and have varying purposes. FIP excludes balls hit into play. xFIP utilizes the league average HR/FB%. SIERA incorporates a pitcher’s underlying skill level into the equation and adjusts for the type of balls in play. The SI stands for “Skills Interactive”, and you can learn more about SIERA in the original article here. SIERA is far from perfect, but many studies over the last 15 years have proven it to have a slightly higher correlation to ERA than the other indicators.
Over the years, I have utilized a simple formula (ERA minus SIERA) to identify pitchers who could be deemed “lucky”, with negative regression on the horizon, and vice versa — “unlucky” with a higher likelihood of positive regression. To further qualify the luck or lack thereof, I review BABIP and LOB% (left-on-base rate, or strand rate). In the context of fantasy baseball FAAB/waiver pickups or trades, I dig into pitchers’ year-to-date starts and look at their projected upcoming starts – both from a perspective of ballpark/environment and strength of opponent. Moreover, and most importantly, I am reviewing the most important metric of all, which is K-BB% (the difference between their strikeout rate and walk rate). Proficient at punching batters out, able to locate pitches and not walk a lot of guys? You’re probably going to have above-average results.
Before our sage readers bring out their pitchforks, note that I recognize there is a lot of nuance here and not everything can be overly simplified. Of course, a high or low BABIP is impacted by team defense, or if a pitcher generates weak or hard contact. Nevertheless, I assume a pitcher with four seasons of around a league-average BABIP (.290) who has a .365 BABIP through five starts is going to regress towards his career mean. The same for a pitcher with a 100% LOB% through five starts, regressing towards the league average of 70-75%.
The perfect example for this point in the season is the pitcher who has been the very best in baseball, Los Angeles Angels righty, José Soriano.
Through five starts, Soriano has a 0.28 ERA, 3.04 SIERA, 2.82 xFIP, 21.7 K-BB%, .149 BABIP, and a 100% LOB.
In his first two full seasons as a starter (2024-2025), those rates were: 3.93 ERA, 3.97 SIERA, 3.65 xFIP, 10.6 K-BB%, .291 BABIP, and a 69% LOB.
It wouldn’t be far-fetched to assume that Soriano will regress from a 0.28 ERA. In fact, it’s common sense. His BABIP and LOB will regress towards his league-average marks from 2024-2025, but likely both will still be well above league-average. We see that his 2024-2025 ERA, SIERA, and xFIP were similar (in the 3.65-4.00 range) and that his current indicators are closer to 3.00. If Soriano ends up with a 3.50 ERA this season, that means there’s some ERA damage to come (to be expected), but he will still end up being a massive provider of fantasy profit at his 250+ ADP. The question to ask ourselves in trade leagues: can we net a top-10 starting pitcher for Soriano in a “sell-high” scenario from a league-mate who only peruses box scores, doesn’t dive into advanced metrics or consider indicators?
Let’s take a look at the qualified starting pitchers with the highest (unluckiest) and lowest (luckiest) differentials between their ERA and SIERA. I use “unlucky” and “lucky” in quotations for these sorted leaderboards to simply denote these differentials noting that luck isn’t a metric.
We knew the Jesús Luzardo Experience would be the ultimate roller coaster going into the season. Luzardo is a top-10 skills arm with extreme highs and lows. This is the guy who served up 20 earned runs in back-to-back starts in the week of the 2025 Memorial Day holiday, but allowed two runs or fewer in 50% (16/32) of his starts last season. Luzardo punched out seven or more batters in 18 of those 32 starts. So far in 2026, Luzardo has an exceptional 30:5 K:BB in 22 innings, an extremely high BABIP of .417 (career: .307), a super low LOB of 41.7% (career: 70%) and a massive difference between his ERA (7.94) and SIERA/xFIP (2.45/1.93). He is the ultimate “buy-low” target, though whether we strike a deal or not is based on mindset of the league-mate who currently rosters him. Are they metrics-saavy and have good fantasy common sense? If so, you probably won’t get a surefire advantage on a deal. Would I trade Soriano for Luzardo? It’s 10x more equitable than it was on March 15, but yes, yes I would, and I’d obnoxiously ask for a throw-in player “to make the deal fair.” (winky emoji)
There is no doubting the high level of concern someone who drafted Garrett Crochet in the first or second round of their draft might have. His implosion in Minnesota (10 ER in 1.2 IP) came out of the blue. Last Sunday, he cruised through four innings against the Tigers before getting torched for four runs on two singles and two homers, in the fifth. Crochet’s BABIP is high (.368) and LOB is low (55.6%), though not at extreme Luzardo levels. His fastball velocity is slightly down from last season (0.5 mph), as is his strikeout rate (-5.4%) and his swinging-strike rate (-3%). It doesn’t look awful under the hood, but because Crochet was drafted as a top-3 pitcher and these blowups are uncharacteristic of him, the trepidation in dealing for him is high.
Digging into FanGraphs player profiles on the rest of these players elicit a common theme in addition to the large ERA-SIERA differentials: above-average BABIPs, below-average LOBs, and, for the most part, a slight velocity decrease. In the case of Mike Burrows, his SwStr% is up from last season (12% to 12.7%) and his barrel rate is greatly reduced (10.8% to 5.7%). Burrows’ next three projected starts are against the Yankees (home), Red Sox (away), and Dodgers (home), so perhaps we weather the storm and pluck him off waivers in a few weeks when his schedule improves.
Yusei Kikuchi’s four-seam fastball velocity is slightly up from last season (94.8 mph to 95.4), but it’s an offering he continues to decrease because it typically gets crushed. He’s an example of a pitcher I typically avoid drafting and want nothing to do with. Streaming Jake Irvin (career 4.99 ERA) is always a case of playing with fire. He’s another pitcher I never want anything to do with.
David Peterson and Aaron Nola are on the downswings of their careers, but both have a high chance of improving their ERAs. Everything under the hood appears similar to last season. Logan Webb, Nathan Eovaldi, and Logan Gilbert are three arms I’d explore deals on.
Other than Soriano, the standout “lucky” pitcher worth shopping is Justin Wrobleski. The sample size is smaller than most on the list (24 IP: three starts, one 4-IP piggyback), but we can still confidently yell “negative regression” so long as our league-mates don’t hear it. Wrobleski has a 9.8% strikeout rate (9 Ks), a .205 BABIP and has yet to allow a home run. Wrobleski earns confidence points as a member of the Dodgers rotation, but will rarely earn two starts in a week because of they run a six-man, and he’s no lock to remain in it for the long-run with Blake Snell and River Ryan eventually joining it.
Seth Lugo has been masterful through five starts, but he’s the same guy he’s always been — 91-92 mph FB velo, 8-9% BB, sub-10% SwStr. The big difference this season is he has yet to allow a home run. Edward Cabrera hasn’t allowed a home run either, but there is little else in his profile to elicit confidence. Cabrera’s .286 BABIP is close to his career mark and to league-average, his strikeout rate is way down (25.8% to 18.7%), his 12.1% walk rate is closer to his career mark (11.7%) which may portend last season’s 8.3% as an outlier, and his Stuff+ ratings are down across the board. Cabrera’s next start is against the Phillies at home, this Thursday. I would not be looking to trade for E-Cab, though I would explore dealing him for a more durable pitcher with a higher health grade around his preseason ADP, like MacKenzie Gore or Robbie Ray.
Many others on this list aren’t particularly enticing from a name-brand, reputation or fantasy value perspective — Michael Wacha, Clay Holmes, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Bryce Elder fall under this category. Seeing Jack Flaherty’s 3.7 K-BB% induces agita, especially when noting the decline from 2024 (24%) and 2025 (18.9%). We can’t technically call it a decline yet since it’s only been five starts, but he’s another roller coaster guy who is tough to ride with. Last season, he served up at least four earned runs in 26% of his starts failed to reach the fifth inning in 28%. He somehow managed an 8-15 record on a playoff team that finished 12 games above .500.
There will always be outliers, but the holes poked into this process would be tiny pinholes. This process have assisted in my fantasy baseball endeavors for many years and I always strive to improve it and learn from experience and those around me. Reviewing ERA and SIERA differentials, BABIP and LOB rates relative to average, recent and future matchups, and of course strikeout-to-walk ratios are good first steps in assessing over/underperforming pitchers and their rest-of-season fantasy value.
From 2021 to 2025 among pitchers with at least 100 innings recorded, Stuff+ has a 0.708 correlation with strikeout rate. That’s quite significant. Although I don’t have the stabilization point of Stuff+, I have to imagine it becomes meaningful far more quickly than strikeout rate. Assuming that’s the case, it follows that monitoring Stuff+ changes is key to predicting future strikeout rate direction.
