Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC. 

NFBC Versus ESPN

Trea Turner (NFBC ADP: 1.4, ESPN ADP: 13.2)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Tim Anderson (35.12, 120.9)- This is another amazing deal over on ESPN when Anderson is going in the second or third round of leagues in the industry and on NFBC. 

Trevor Story (36.02, 112.4)- I understand with Story’s lack of home and disappointing end to 2021 him falling, but this is a bit extreme. There really isn’t a spot he could land where I would think this price wouldn’t still be a steal. 

Bobby Witt Jr. (89.83, 212.8)- I think Witt’s price in NFBC is extreme, but this is on the complete other end of the spectrum. The truth is likely in the middle somewhere. 

Javy Baez (63.52, 167.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Jazz Chisholm (72.62, 229.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.  

Amed Rosario (148.2, 236)- Rosario is one of the guys that gets pushed down on other sites because so much of the ADP is catering to points leagues where he speed is less valuable. This presents a buying opportunity for getting really cheap speed when you wouldn’t have the chance in more competitive leagues. 

Luis Urias (153.54, 206.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Willy Adames (166.49, 239.2)- This is another one I don’t really understand. Once he was traded to Milwaukee, Adames was fantastic and offers power and speed with enough average to not hurt you. He shouldn’t be outside the top 200 picks. 

Brendan Rodgers (172.02, 234.1)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Dansby Swanson (123.56, 174.6)- I have been the anti-Swanson guy in the industry for a long time, but I am actually ok with his NFBC price this season which means I love his price on ESPN. 

Chris Taylor (139.15, 193.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.  

O’Neil Cruz (205.86, 259.1)- I love Cruz, but considering we don’t know when he will be up and he is on the Pirates, I am not surprised by the disrespect. I would be stoked to get him at this price though as he is one of my most drafted players already this year on NFBC. 

NFBC Versus Yahoo

Bobby Witt Jr. (NFBC ADP: 89.83, Yahoo ADP: 212.8)- See Above.

Amed Rosario (148.2, 244.8)- See Above. 

Luis Urias (153.54, 249.8)-  See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

NFBC Versus CBS 

Amed Rosario (NFBC ADP: 148.2, CBS ADP: 265)- See Above. 

Nicky Lopez (236.96, 298.25)- I think that Lopez is penalized from the points league formats on CBS because while I think many people expect him to regress in 2022, an almost 300 ADP is way too low for a guy with his speed and contact skills. 

Andres Gimenez (236.38, 317)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Josh Rojas (225.73, 286)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

NFBC Versus Fantrax

Andres Gimienez (NFBC ADP: 236.38, Fantrax ADP: 331.08)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Jonathan Villar- (266.71, 326.31)- I would expect Villar’s price to rise quite a bit on both site once we know where he is landing and the role he will have. 

Amed Rosario (148.2, 202.17)- See Above. 

Gio Urshela (278.93, 319.09)- Urshela is a good price on NFBC, so that means I like him a lot on Fantrax and even more on a place like Yahoo, where he is being undrafted this season. 

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

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The Potential Profit Sources & Middle Infield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nando Di Fino

Strategy Section

• Potential Profit Sources
  • Rookies/Prospects
    • Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Oneil Cruz
    • Riley Greene
    • Spencer Torkelson
  • Aging Veterans
    • Charlie Morton
    • Zack Greinke
    • Joey Votto
    • Yadier Molina
    • Adam Wainwright
    • Nelson Cruz
    • Yuli Gurriel
    • Josh Donaldson
    • Charlie Blackmon
  • Down Season
    • Mike Trout
    • Francisco Lindor
    • DJ LeMahieu
    • Gleyber Torres
  • Injury Bounceback
    • Adalberto Mondesi
    • Jack Flaherty
    • Lance McCullers Jr.
    • Luke Voit
    • Ronald Acuna Jr.

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Let’s play a game. Here are the instructions:

Step 1: Don’t scroll down to the table!

That would be like reading the answers in the back of the textbook before you read the question. You did it in fifth grade, don’t do it now.

Step 2: Imagine drawing a vertical line in the visual below that does a good job of maximizing the four roto counting stats, SB, HR, RBI, and R. Try not to pick rank one, two, or three.

Step 3: Note your player rank. Now you can scroll down to the table to see who you have chosen.

I created these ranks using the default settings of the auction calculator with steamer projections to sort by dollar value. Note that if you wish to do something similar, you should input the parameters of your league accordingly. The point of this exercise is to try to identify players who could be good pickups later in the draft. We so often see tables and spreadsheets and mark single statistics. But, it’s difficult for the human eye to take in all that information and process it. This visual is helpful because it shows us not how single stats like stolen bases decline across the ranks, but how all the counting stats vary across the ranks. For example, if you chose rank 8, you would get a nice little bump in projected (steamer) stolen bases with close to average HR, R, and maybe a little more RBI than some of the lower ranks. Who is this mysterious rank eight? Scroll down to the table to find out.

You, like me, may think, “I can wait for stolen bases. Shortstops seem to have a lot of them.” This visual proves that theory somewhat:

That long tail moving to the right of the shortstop (light blue) distribution shows us that we could potentially pick up a decent amount of steals with a late shortstop pick. However, rank 15 in the first visual shows how much you would sacrifice in projected runs and RBI if you were to employ that strategy. Who is this mysterious rank 15? Scroll down to the table to find out.

I’ve done some mock drafting this offseason using the Fantasy Pros draft simulator and I’ve found that if I don’t get stolen bases early because there are so many good hitters and pitchers that I take instead, I come out very SB-lite. I’ve also noticed that the simulator reaches for base stealers like Tommy Edman, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Akil Baddoo, and Tim Anderson much earlier than I would expect. That’s likely to happen in my actual draft as well. There’s nothing worse than finishing a draft and being really excited about your team and then realizing that you are depleted in a single category, especially if you don’t want to employ a punt strategy. Hopefully, these visuals and a few mock drafts will help you identify optimal draft positions for certain categories. I’m happy to do this same exercise for another position, but only if you’re nice to me in the comments section.

The shortstop position used to be shallow years ago but has now become a position with a good amount of depth. In fact, the two players being drafted as the top two picks are shortstops (Turner/Tatis). The shortstop position packs a punch in terms of speed making them popular early picks.

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Shortstop is maybe the most fun position in baseball right now. Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and I could keep going. As a result, almost every team in your league is going to feel good about shortstop, which I think creates an opportunity to buy a second SS to be your MI. There is a chance that there could be some good values to be had if other managers are complacent thanks to having one of the top 10. And there are plenty of interesting names after the top 10.

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the shortstop position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live and notes for each player will be added this week.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Read the rest of this entry »

12/18/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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IN FOCUS: SS Ranking Debates

• Fernando Tatis Jr. (2:28)
• Francisco Lindor (8:00)
• Tim Anderson (11:50)
• Carlos Correa (17:50)

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I’ll be releasing my first run of positional rankings over the next week or so. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.

Let’s discuss in the comments!

• 2B Rankings
• 1B Rankings

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