ADP Battle Royale: Shortstop

by
February 23, 2022

Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC. 

 

NFBC Versus ESPN

Trea Turner (NFBC ADP: 1.4, ESPN ADP: 13.2)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Tim Anderson (35.12, 120.9)- This is another amazing deal over on ESPN when Anderson is going in the second or third round of leagues in the industry and on NFBC. 

Trevor Story (36.02, 112.4)- I understand with Story’s lack of home and disappointing end to 2021 him falling, but this is a bit extreme. There really isn’t a spot he could land where I would think this price wouldn’t still be a steal. 

Bobby Witt Jr. (89.83, 212.8)- I think Witt’s price in NFBC is extreme, but this is on the complete other end of the spectrum. The truth is likely in the middle somewhere. 

Javy Baez (63.52, 167.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Jazz Chisholm (72.62, 229.5)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.  

Amed Rosario (148.2, 236)- Rosario is one of the guys that gets pushed down on other sites because so much of the ADP is catering to points leagues where he speed is less valuable. This presents a buying opportunity for getting really cheap speed when you wouldn’t have the chance in more competitive leagues. 

Luis Urias (153.54, 206.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Willy Adames (166.49, 239.2)- This is another one I don’t really understand. Once he was traded to Milwaukee, Adames was fantastic and offers power and speed with enough average to not hurt you. He shouldn’t be outside the top 200 picks. 

Brendan Rodgers (172.02, 234.1)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Dansby Swanson (123.56, 174.6)- I have been the anti-Swanson guy in the industry for a long time, but I am actually ok with his NFBC price this season which means I love his price on ESPN. 

Chris Taylor (139.15, 193.8)- See the piece in this series on second basemen.  

O’Neil Cruz (205.86, 259.1)- I love Cruz, but considering we don’t know when he will be up and he is on the Pirates, I am not surprised by the disrespect. I would be stoked to get him at this price though as he is one of my most drafted players already this year on NFBC. 

 

NFBC Versus Yahoo

Bobby Witt Jr. (NFBC ADP: 89.83, Yahoo ADP: 212.8)- See Above.

Amed Rosario (148.2, 244.8)- See Above. 

Luis Urias (153.54, 249.8)-  See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

 

NFBC Versus CBS 

Amed Rosario (NFBC ADP: 148.2, CBS ADP: 265)- See Above. 

Nicky Lopez (236.96, 298.25)- I think that Lopez is penalized from the points league formats on CBS because while I think many people expect him to regress in 2022, an almost 300 ADP is way too low for a guy with his speed and contact skills. 

Andres Gimenez (236.38, 317)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Josh Rojas (225.73, 286)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

 

NFBC Versus Fantrax

Andres Gimienez (NFBC ADP: 236.38, Fantrax ADP: 331.08)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Jonathan Villar- (266.71, 326.31)- I would expect Villar’s price to rise quite a bit on both site once we know where he is landing and the role he will have. 

Amed Rosario (148.2, 202.17)- See Above. 

Gio Urshela (278.93, 319.09)- Urshela is a good price on NFBC, so that means I like him a lot on Fantrax and even more on a place like Yahoo, where he is being undrafted this season. 

Shortstops ADP by Platform
NFBC Player Team Position(s) ESPN Yahoo CBS Fantrax
1.4 Trea Turner LAD 2B, SS 13.2 2.5 5.17 3.37
2.48 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS, OF 5.8 1.2 1.5 2.24
5.13 Bo Bichette TOR SS 27.4 6.9 10.17 7.65
35.12 Tim Anderson CWS SS 120.9 32.1 40.67 55.71
36.02 Trevor Story COL SS 112.4 41.6 40.5 49.79
42.43 Marcus Semien TEX 2B, SS 38.8 33.5 54.67 32.63
47.87 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS 42.5 28.4 36.83 44.49
50.29 Francisco Lindor NYM SS 60.2 43 41.5 59.21
56.48 Wander Franco TB SS 28.4 44.4 61.33 43.54
63.52 Javier Baez DET 2B, SS 167.5 63.3 80.67 83.35
72.62 Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA 2B, SS 229.5 87.3 103.17 97.96
83.35 Jorge Polanco MIN 2B, SS 84.3 100.4 102.67 90.91
87.89 Corey Seager TEX SS 46.7 65.9 41.5 68.81
89.83 Bobby Witt Jr. KC SS 212.8 221.5 80.4 109.38
108.02 Carlos Correa HOU SS 70.3 74.9 78.5 85.09
123.56 Dansby Swanson ATL SS 174.6 132.1 116.67 130.65
123.93 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 83.9 126.1 145.33 123.63
129.36 Willy Adames MLW SS 236 171.4 140.67 136.94
139.15 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 193.8 132.1 178.17 151.08
143.01 Gleyber Torres NYY SS 157.2 177.4 138.17 157.68
148.2 Amed Rosario CLE SS 255.1 244.8 265 202.17
153.54 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 206.8 249.8 197.17 182.96
172.02 Brendan Rodgers COL 2B, SS 234.1 217.9 185.83 168.28
205.86 Oneil Cruz PIT SS 259.1 244 206.83 219.65
211.69 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B, SS 244 163.6 197.83 193.08
212.02 Brandon Crawford SF SS 227.8 217.3 224.5 210.65
225.73 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B, SS, OF 215.6 251.5 286 245.72
229.83 Gavin Lux LAD 2B, SS 258.3 251 222.8 216.36
236.38 Andres Gimenez CLE 2B, SS 259.8 244.8 317 311.08
236.96 Nicky Lopez KC SS 259.2 240.4 298.25 274.27
266.71 Jonathan Villar NYM 3B, SS 260 245.7 312.5 326.31
278.93 Gio Urshela NYY 3B, SS 249.6 — 223.67 319.09
309.83 J.P. Crawford SEA SS 245 234.3 324.67 293.94
320.82 Miguel Rojas MIA SS — — 343 344.5
326.93 David Fletcher LAA 2B, SS 217.5 251 315 319.66
349.35 Joey Wendle MIA 3B, SS 259.9 243.7 — 354.81
352.26 Isiah Kiner-Falefa TEX SS 259.7 — 343.33 302.77
352.48 Ha-Seong Kim SD 2B, 3B, SS 259.6 — 378.33 378.9
367.29 Jose Barrero CIN SS 259.9 246 362.5 —
400.98 Edmundo Sosa STL 2B, SS 259.8 — — 440.65
416.32 Ramon Urias BAL 2B, SS — — — 407.51
417.07 Didi Gregorius PHI SS 258.7 177.4 256.67 371.92
418.08 Paul DeJong STL SS 259.7 240.6 364.67 401.39
422.83 Bryson Stott PHI SS 260 130.3 331 452.89
425.01 Tyler Wade LAA 3B, SS, OF 259.6 — — 516.75
443.39 Jeremy Pena HOU SS — — 431 462.84
475.24 Kyle Farmer CIN SS — — — 430.68
503.19 Nick Ahmed ARZ SS — — — 489.26
504.17 Willi Castro DET 2B, SS 260 — 404.5 493.19
507.1 Elvis Andrus OAK SS — — — 493.7
549.99 Taylor Walls TB SS 259.9 — — 852.37
566.55 Niko Goodrum DET SS — — — 552.81
575.32 Jose Iglesias BOS SS — — — 556.37
577.12 Cole Tucker PIT SS 259.9 240.1 — 68.81
579.94 Alcides Escobar WAS SS — 248.9 — 563.61
600.73 Kevin Newman PIT SS 259.8 — — 609.09
614.12 CJ Abrams SD SS 259.9 238.2 99 478.4
631.45 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 259.8 — — 615.06
646.95 Andrelton Simmons MIN SS 260 245.4 — 625.12
662.42 Geraldo Perdomo ARZ SS 260 — — 598.05
695.19 Thairo Estrada SF SS 259.9 — — 573.98
709.83 Royce Lewis MIN SS 259.9 — 331.5 551.78
714.27 Jeter Downs BOS SS 260 — — 646.01
721.93 Luis Rengifo LAA SS 260 235.9 452 789.2
727.36 Harold Castro DET 2B, SS 259.9 — — 706.45
731.23 Oswald Peraza NYY SS 259.9 — 352 696.04
733.77 Jordan Groshans TOR SS 259.9 — — 565.96
740.07 Sergio Alcantara CHC 2B, SS 260 — — —
746.15 Gabriel Arias CLE SS 260 — — 799.13
748.61 Anthony Volpe FA SS 259.9 6.9 139.5 587.73
748.89 Ronald Torreyes PHI 3B, SS 260 — — 963.34
749.77 Ryan Kreidler FA SS 260 — — 1027.6
749.89 Nick Maton PHI 2B, SS 260 — — 973.2
750.12 Andrew Velazquez LAA SS 260 238.4 — 1251.5
750.64 Dee Strange-Gordon MLW SS 259.9 246 — —
750.65 Danny Mendick CWS 2B, SS 260 1.2 — 1062.15
750.89 Jonathan Arauz BOS SS 260 — — 1194.7
NFBC ADP and positional eligibility are based on Draft Champions leagues since 1/1/2022/





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Mays Copeland
2 years ago

I actually feel like ESPN’s ADP is pretty good for their own site.

  • With ESPN’s default settings, Trea Turner is projected to get about as many points as Rafael Devers. Early 2nd is the right call.
  • Willy Adames strikes out a ton, and ESPN’s scoring penalizes strikeouts. His NFBC ADP seems fair for their settings, and his ESPN ADP seems fair on their site.

For every player you mention, the answer is always either “ESPN points devalues SB” or “ESPN points penalizes SO.”

Using NFBC ADP when you’re doing an ESPN points league seems even less helpful than just relying on ESPN’s ADP.

The obvious exception is if your ESPN league happens to be a 15-team roto league, I guess.

Last edited 2 years ago by Mays Copeland
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zurzlesmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Mays Copeland

ESPN hasn’t used the same lists for points and roto in the past. Right now they’re the same, which is insane. I’ve been primarily using ESPN for 15+ years and I’ve never seen this sort of disparity between their roto rankings and other sites. They’re doing it differently this year.

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Mays Copeland
2 years ago
Reply to  zurzles

You may be right about past years, but my memory is that in previous years ESPN’s ADP would fall somewhere in between points and roto.

This year it seems 100% directed at their points leagues.

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zurzlesmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Mays Copeland

I believe they used entirely separate lists. You can look at their ADP from last year here: https://web.archive.org/web/20210223165317/https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

Some rankings are off from the rest of course but nothing crazy and players like Turner are right in line with the others. If they were incorporating points leagues at all, SB-first players like Turner, Marte and Merrifield would take a huge hit and SPs would take a huge jump. Those are happening this year but they weren’t at all last year.

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Mays Copeland
2 years ago
Reply to  zurzles

That ADP you found for 2021 is what I remembered–but with a different interpretation than you, I guess. 🙂

For 2021, I see: Mondesi is much lower than everywhere else. (You’re right that other speedsters aren’t far off, though.) Muncy, Rizzo, Brantley, Santana are much higher than everywhere else.

Maybe I shouldn’t say it was “in between points and roto.” Nudged toward points? But it was the same list used for both league types.

This year is certainly more extreme towards points leagues. We agree there.

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