Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 Outfielder Rankings

by
March 17, 2022

“Must…hit…publish…before nine more transactions force more revisions.” We have no time for chit-chat.

Okay, a little chit-chat. I left the high-priced guys behind for analysis and mostly focused on pockets for particular categorical values, sticking to players taken in the latter parts of drafts. If you’re just joining us, here are the ranks for first base, third base, and catcher.

ADP taken from recent NFBC drafts and players are sorted by their most valuable fantasy position, following a hierarchy of: C > 2B > OF > 3B > 1B > SS

 

Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 OF Ranks + Projections
Rank Player All ADP Rk ADP Min Max PA HR R RBI SB Avg
1 Juan Soto OF 2 4 1 7 673 37 114 106 12 .311
2 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF 4 9 5 11 595 37 106 89 26 .286
3 Bryce Harper OF 3 9 4 14 657 39 106 103 14 .285
4 Kyle Tucker OF 5 11 7 14 623 33 91 96 17 .296
5 Luis Robert OF 8 17 10 22 636 33 94 90 20 .290
6 Mike Trout OF 7 16 8 22 600 38 102 98 8 .288
7 Mookie Betts OF 6 16 10 22 672 29 114 91 15 .284
8 Cedric Mullins OF 13 33 21 39 659 27 91 67 29 .275
9 Teoscar Hernández OF 12 32 16 43 622 34 92 99 11 .279
10 Starling Marte OF 9 25 14 36 588 15 92 61 35 .283
11 Whit Merrifield 2B/OF 11 30 21 43 702 10 95 70 32 .278
12 Tyler O’Neill OF 15 49 30 60 616 36 90 92 14 .270
13 Byron Buxton OF 16 53 38 66 525 32 85 79 18 .288
14 Yordan Alvarez OF 10 27 16 35 610 37 92 105 1 .279
15 Aaron Judge OF 14 35 26 43 620 37 95 92 5 .285
16 Nick Castellanos OF 19 67 52 82 645 35 91 96 3 .288
17 Ketel Marte 2B/OF 21 77 65 94 635 25 90 88 4 .306
18 Randy Arozarena OF 17 60 45 74 628 24 89 76 20 .263
19 Eloy Jiménez OF 20 70 56 95 630 35 82 100 1 .276
20 Bryan Reynolds OF 24 92 77 108 656 24 87 89 5 .296
21 Tommy Edman 2B/OF 22 85 64 109 662 12 88 61 26 .269
22 George Springer OF 18 62 40 73 590 34 94 85 6 .259
23 Mitch Haniger OF 31 122 94 145 676 35 98 90 2 .260
24 Kris Bryant 3B/OF 26 100 66 124 624 30 88 77 7 .271
25 J.D. Martinez OF 23 90 72 104 628 27 86 95 1 .280
26 Christian Yelich OF 28 102 87 116 595 23 89 74 15 .266
27 Giancarlo Stanton OF 25 96 56 114 566 35 81 91 1 .259
28 Myles Straw OF 30 117 77 148 627 4 80 48 31 .270
29 Joey Gallo OF 50 186 124 224 620 40 91 93 5 .209
30 Kyle Schwarber OF 33 127 108 164 564 34 82 89 2 .258
31 Jesse Winker OF 29 108 89 128 591 26 89 84 2 .291
32 Chris Taylor 2B/SS/OF 35 133 106 157 597 23 85 74 12 .255
33 Avisaíl García OF 41 165 141 186 564 27 69 80 9 .270
34 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS/OF 1 2 1 3 350 25 63 60 16 .286
35 Ryan Mountcastle 1B/OF 32 124 85 177 606 30 77 87 4 .258
36 Cody Bellinger OF 27 100 82 120 577 26 81 82 9 .239
37 Hunter Renfroe OF 43 175 148 215 564 33 76 88 2 .256
38 Eddie Rosario OF 46 180 154 210 554 24 68 78 10 .258
39 Marcell Ozuna OF 49 184 154 216 583 30 78 85 1 .266
40 Seiya Suzuki OF 44 175 116 214 590 25 76 85 4 .262
41 Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF 45 179 155 209 595 22 67 78 4 .285
42 Trent Grisham OF 34 131 107 167 570 17 85 63 15 .245
43 Robbie Grossman OF 47 180 144 225 652 20 82 66 18 .240
44 Andrew Benintendi OF 42 172 136 214 563 20 69 71 10 .272
45 Alex Verdugo OF 40 160 132 182 602 15 83 67 6 .282
46 Adam Duvall OF 60 231 187 259 566 37 74 89 3 .235
47 Brandon Nimmo OF 76 288 240 333 623 15 87 60 9 .281
48 Akil Baddoo OF 37 142 101 175 552 19 71 64 21 .238
49 AJ Pollock OF 55 207 170 236 475 24 67 72 8 .275
50 Ian Happ OF 52 198 173 239 616 29 78 78 9 .244
51 Dylan Carlson OF 48 183 136 223 626 22 79 71 5 .257
52 Tommy Pham OF 65 243 209 284 531 16 76 60 16 .260
53 Michael Conforto OF 53 199 171 241 609 23 79 78 3 .258
54 Jorge Soler OF 54 202 148 254 605 30 81 87 1 .244
55 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 38 147 129 173 549 23 68 74 3 .268
56 Enrique Hernández 2B/OF 57 227 186 266 622 24 89 77 1 .257
57 Jarred Kelenic OF 36 137 108 168 539 23 66 71 12 .230
58 Austin Meadows OF 39 158 136 188 585 27 79 85 6 .235
59 Harrison Bader OF 56 222 188 279 546 21 69 63 14 .250
60 Ramón Laureano OF 66 249 176 320 525 20 70 62 14 .251
61 Charlie Blackmon OF 59 230 193 268 587 17 77 75 3 .283
62 Max Kepler OF 72 275 217 298 553 24 77 68 7 .253
63 Austin Hays OF 63 242 210 285 554 22 70 69 6 .257
64 Michael Brantley OF 64 243 182 295 519 10 67 58 2 .303
65 Raimel Tapia OF 68 252 219 291 539 4 70 49 19 .275
66 Adolis García OF 51 187 153 228 581 20 72 71 13 .226
67 Anthony Santander OF 73 277 215 330 525 24 65 72 2 .260
68 Mark Canha OF 74 278 242 311 583 17 78 64 9 .243
69 Mike Yastrzemski OF 75 286 253 328 541 24 74 69 4 .243
70 Wil Myers OF 71 272 233 312 554 19 68 68 9 .237
71 Jo Adell OF 61 234 211 274 503 19 63 64 8 .251
72 Andrew Vaughn OF 67 249 196 300 520 19 62 64 2 .253
73 Garrett Hampson 2B/OF 70 260 221 313 478 13 67 45 17 .251
74 Josh Rojas 2B/SS/OF 62 235 200 275 542 10 68 51 13 .255
75 Jesús Sánchez OF 58 229 176 268 518 22 61 69 3 .241
76 Tyler Naquin OF 85 326 273 387 481 19 62 64 5 .263
77 Manuel Margot OF 87 331 294 385 466 11 58 51 15 .263
78 Lorenzo Cain OF 91 342 269 428 500 13 63 49 16 .261
79 Luis Arraez 2B/3B/OF 78 295 236 351 572 5 70 53 2 .300
80 Andrew McCutchen OF 90 341 299 395 520 20 70 66 5 .250
81 Kyle Lewis OF 82 306 261 341 519 19 61 61 5 .248
82 Rafael Ortega OF 83 316 271 368 494 12 61 48 14 .247
83 Jeff McNeil 2B/OF 84 320 264 368 523 10 61 52 3 .281
84 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF 81 304 267 344 441 18 57 52 6 .254
85 Randal Grichuk OF 92 346 304 400 503 21 63 70 1 .243
86 Seth Brown OF 118 410 347 448 495 23 59 62 5 .227
87 Lane Thomas OF 69 254 213 318 450 15 60 52 10 .238
88 Garrett Cooper OF 119 410 368 450 525 19 65 66 2 .277
89 Tony Kemp 2B/OF 98 380 330 440 503 9 65 45 10 .248
90 Joc Pederson OF 112 403 362 442 473 20 61 62 2 .247
91 Connor Joe OF 79 302 260 341 436 16 57 54 1 .270
92 Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B/OF 88 333 275 392 475 19 56 60 1 .223
93 Steven Kwan OF 106 394 310 448 488 12 54 52 6 .274
94 Brandon Marsh OF 86 329 283 372 472 12 57 47 10 .247
95 Hunter Dozier 3B/OF 93 367 307 444 504 15 59 59 5 .238
96 Sam Hilliard OF 95 374 313 448 399 19 50 51 8 .225
97 Pavin Smith 1B/OF 104 390 317 431 510 11 62 56 2 .262
98 Vidal Bruján 2B 89 333 248 408 291 5 36 28 14 .244
99 Jarren Duran OF 99 380 349 450 419 9 55 42 13 .256
100 Michael A. Taylor OF 109 397 348 444 466 11 52 51 11 .236
101 Josh Harrison 2B/3B/OF 113 406 372 442 484 8 56 51 7 .278
102 David Peralta OF 120 411 382 429 533 10 62 63 2 .260
103 Willie Calhoun OF 96 377 317 447 500 12 57 57 1 .260
104 Matt Vierling OF 131 442 442 442 431 12 50 53 9 .246
105 Victor Robles OF 105 393 314 446 437 9 55 41 14 .235
106 Dylan Moore 2B/OF 107 396 324 448 327 11 40 34 18 .211
107 Bryan De La Cruz OF 124 421 387 447 466 12 51 49 5 .257
108 Kyle Isbel OF 116 409 356 449 410 10 47 42 11 .247
109 Kole Calhoun OF 114 406 371 434 457 16 57 58 3 .232
110 Tyler Wade 3B/SS/OF 123 413 368 444 300 4 38 23 21 .247
111 Leury García 2B/OF 108 397 363 444 472 6 58 47 6 .267
112 Jake Meyers OF 135 415 15 50 48 8 .244
113 Jurickson Profar 1B/OF 115 408 352 449 488 10 57 48 10 .244
114 Yadiel Hernandez OF 129 434 430 440 420 15 47 50 4 .254
115 Corey Dickerson OF 136 389 11 47 45 5 .263
116 Brad Miller 1B/OF 137 385 19 50 51 3 .234
117 Riley Greene OF 80 304 230 352 312 8 38 34 5 .250
118 Chad Pinder OF 125 425 389 449 450 15 51 53 2 .241
119 Ben Gamel OF 132 443 443 443 499 10 56 49 6 .249
120 Chas McCormick OF 101 385 347 440 370 13 47 47 6 .243
121 Aaron Hicks OF 121 411 310 445 464 16 61 53 3 .227
122 Jake Fraley OF 126 426 415 436 371 13 43 40 12 .226
123 Aristides Aquino OF 138 361 18 47 48 5 .224
124 Jorge Mateo OF 103 386 335 450 370 7 41 33 15 .235
125 Julio Rodríguez OF 77 292 214 365 306 5 24 22 4 .269
126 Austin Slater OF 130 439 436 441 317 9 42 32 12 .254
127 Jordan Luplow OF 139 338 18 45 43 4 .237
128 Clint Frazier OF 97 379 273 438 411 15 47 46 4 .251
129 Tyrone Taylor OF 102 386 315 446 302 12 35 39 3 .248
130 Odúbel Herrera OF 140 400 10 49 45 4 .260
131 Adam Engel OF 133 445 445 445 342 12 43 37 10 .240
132 Dominic Smith OF 94 373 305 419 380 13 44 50 1 .256
133 Anthony Alford OF 141 350 10 41 36 12 .225
134 Bradley Zimmer OF 111 401 337 450 349 9 41 33 13 .222
135 Kevin Kiermaier OF 142 400 7 46 38 11 .232
136 Trevor Larnach OF 127 426 411 435 374 11 44 41 2 .230
137 Nick Senzel OF 110 398 333 449 296 7 39 32 7 .270
138 Darin Ruf 러프 1B/OF 100 381 320 437 327 15 41 42 2 .245
139 Stephen Piscotty OF 143 454 13 45 48 4 .231
140 Justin Upton OF 144 344 15 45 45 3 .221
141 Nick Gordon OF 117 409 402 416 300 5 35 30 12 .250
142 Oscar Mercado OF 145 336 8 39 34 9 .241
143 Kevin Pillar OF 146 311 10 37 38 5 .247
144 Matt Beaty 1B/OF 147 316 10 40 38 2 .253
145 Victor Reyes OF 134 448 448 448 300 5 36 29 8 .269
146 Brent Rooker OF 148 306 11 38 38 1 .220
147 Yonathan Daza OF 149 307 3 33 28 4 .277
148 Alek Thomas OF 128 426 400 450 253 4 32 27 5 .267
149 Nomar Mazara OF 150 304 9 35 37 1 .243
150 Harold Ramirez OF 122 412 377 449 236 6 26 28 2 .277

Fantasy Notes For Recent News

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (broken wrist) – Tatis breaking his wrist obviously has the biggest fantasy implications, as the consensus top-three pick now looks to miss ~3 months. I dropped him to OF 34 (with 350 PA) but even that might be too aggressive with wrist injuries that are notoriously tricky to hit the ground running with. Zero interest.
  • Kris Bryant (signed with COL) – The internets are telling me that this move might just increase Bryant’s fantasy value. And I can’t say I disagree! The problem for me is that the projection bump only gets his value up to just above what his pre-signing ADP was, not where it’s going to shoot up to now.
  • Seiya Suzuki (signed with CHC) – He won’t be in as good of a lineup as he would’ve been in other destinations (RIP “Breaking news: Seiya Suzuki signs with the Padres for 5 yrs/$70 million) but Chicago could end up being a bigger boon for fantasy players considering how favorable Wrigley Field is for right-handed power. Plus, I might be too conservative on his plate appearances and a boost could come once we see some spring lineups. But I also might be too aggressive on his performance rates because while leading the NPB Central League with a 1.073 OPS in 2021 was impressive, the counterpoint is that the 1.006 OPS in second place belonged to Tyler Austin.
  • Kyle Schwarber (signed with PHI) –  As soft as a spot as he could land; great lineup, great home park.
  • Eddie Rosario (signed with ATL) – Pretty much ditto from above; resigning with Atlanta makes total sense and his home park/lineup gets him a small bump in projections.

Tier: Post-200 ADP Speed Bubble

  • Tommy Pham, OF 50: 16 SB (250 ADP, OF 73)
  • Josh Rojas, OF 53: 13 SB (224 ADP, OF 63)
  • Harrison Bader, OF 56: 14 SB (217 ADP, OF 62) 
  • Ramón Laureano, OF 57: 14 SB (228 ADP, OF 65)
  • Raimel Tapia, OF 64: 19 SB (258 ADP, OF 68)

One of many mid-tier players whose free-agent status could be depressing their price, Tommy Pham seems a pretty reasonable bet to provide ~30 HR+SB even if he doesn’t sign in a situation where more than 500 PA seems likely. But it is nice to hear that he’s open to playing first base to improve his free-agent desirability so hopefully, that flexibility will lead to him piecing together something closer to a role with +550 PA.

But  I’m mostly excited because Pham gives me a chance to finally fulfill my official 2022 tout-ligation for asking: “why draft this guy here when you can draft this guy here?”.

Because, I mean, come on…Why draft Trent Grisham at a 129 ADP when you can draft Tommy Pham at a 250 ADP? Thank you. Wow, what a terrific audience.

Tier: Post-300 ADP Speed Bubble

  • Rafael Ortega, OF 80: 14 SB (314 ADP, OF 82)
  • Manuel Margot, OF 76: 15 SB (318 ADP, OF 92)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF 77: 16 SB (343 ADP, OF 96)

Lorenzo Cain has been of my favorite targets when needing to fill in some speed late in deeper leagues even though it is, of course, worrisome that the nearly 36-year-old missed over half of 2021 with a variety of leg injuries. But Cain also admitted after missing half of the spring with his first pulled quad that he’d ramped up his running too quickly after opting out of the 2020 season and I think its reasonable to assume the similar injuries that followed were about a soft-tissue domino effect more so than his body going into old-man breakdown mode – and yes, OMBM is a real disease, with doctors, and everything.

The projections for his playing time seem to reflect this worry but I’m more optimistic considering Cain had crossed 600 PA in four of the previous five seasons prior to his 2020 opt-out. I have him for 500 PA but think that might still end up being conservative as the incoming NL DH will allow the Brewers to get him more rest days in the field. And he missed time but don’t forget just how productive Cain was last year in just 78 games:

286 PA: 8 HR – 40 R – 36 RBI – 13 SB

Tier: Possible Low-Key Sources of Value Following Oakland’s Seemingly* Inevitable Fire Sale

  • Seth Brown, OF 91 (435 ADP, OF 120) – rookie contract, two years from arbitration.
  • Tony Kemp, OF 94 (382 ADP, OF 102) – owed $2.25 million in 2022, Arb 3 in 2023, FA in 2024.
  • Chad Pinder, OF 119 (525 ADP, OF 143) – owed $2.725 million in 2022, FA in 2023.
  • Stephen Piscotty, OF 139 (644 ADP, OF 168) – owed $7.58 million in 2022, club option in 2023.

* And by seemingly, I mean ongoing, as Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have now officially joined Chris Bassitt in the ranks of former A’s, with the clock ticking on Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas.

This tier is only relevant in 15-team leagues and up but all of the above could return value from deep in the draft if their playing time and batting orders are artificially inflated following a sell-off by the Bay. Or, they could end up being waiver-wire fodder after being the things that get sold, winding up as little more than spare parts on contending teams. It’ll probably depend on which salaries Oakland can convince potential trade partners to eat.

Going just by contract status, Seth Brown seems to be the safest bet to stick around and his power also gives him the highest fantasy ceiling – after all, he did hit 20 HR last season in just 307 PA. The .214 AVG it came with certainly isn’t appealing but the power looks legit (and he did hit 37 HR in 500 PA at Triple-A in 2019) with the home runs in 2021 backed by a 13.9% Brl% that rose to 16.7% in the second half. If you’re looking for a lottery ticket with the upside of a poor man’s Joey Gallo, Brown’s your man. Speaking of…

Tier: Just Have a Little Batting Average Foresight

  • Joey Gall0, OF 29 (186 ADP, OF 50)
  • Adam Duvall, OF 46 (231 ADP, OF 60)

Confession; I don’t stress about batting average that much. Well, at least, I don’t stress about it later in drafts because I generally build my teams to have a good batting average base early. That way I can be free to grab power later whilst having nary a worry about getting weighed down by a BA sink the likes of Joey Gallo. Because even with a .199 AVG and a fairly low 77 RBI, Gallo was still a top-70 hitter in 12-team leagues in 2021, yet is being drafted as a top-120 hitter on NFBC in 2022, with an overall 197 ADP.

Playing in a park that is seemingly built for his left-handed light-tower power (and in a Yankee lineup that gets better by the day), coming in around 40 HR and 170 R+RBI doesn’t seem like its a super high bar – hell, my man Pico will even throw in 5 SB. As long as you’re not scared by batting-average boogiemen and do a little planning, Gallo is one of the easiest profit sources in this range.

Just can’t stomach the Mendoza-like qualities of our guy Joey? What would you say about trading some of that power (and counting stats) for ~30 points of batting average and an ADP about 50 picks later for a player who was a top-50 hitter (and top-20 OF) in 12-team leagues in 2021 according to both the RazzBall player rater and the FanGraphs auction calculator? Is that something you might be interested in?

Because Adam Duvall crushes bombs:

Animated GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

Duvall hit 42 HR split across the majors and minors in 2019, hit 16 HR in just 57 games in 2020, and finished 2021 with 38 HR in 555 PA. And while his .324 wOBA in 2021 may have been mundane, you’re paying for what he does on contact and he certainly didn’t disappoint there. Duvall posted career-highs in 2021 both with a .448 wOBAcon and .457 xwOBAcon, while his 16.1% Brl% (also a career-high) was in the top-8% of baseball, with an even better 17.0% Brl% in the second half.

I repeat, Adam Duvall crushes bombs:

Animated GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

I can at least understand the hesitancy when it comes to drafting Gallo, who simply might not fit a lot of team builds, regardless of the power upside. But the lack of love for Duvall seems undeserved considering his career .232 AVG in today’s low-BA game is nowhere close to the average liability that Gallo is, while also playing in a good hitter’s park and in the middle of what should again be an excellent offense.

And not to go full-narrative but after a series of one-year deals, buyouts, and arbitration, the 33-year-old Duvall will enter 2023 as an unrestricted free agent with likely his last chance for a big cash-in contract…And he’s proven he has the three-step plan that just might pull it off:

Step 1. Crush more bombs
Step 2. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Step 3. Profit

Tier: Oh No, I Drafted Joey Gallo Without Any Batting Average Foresight and Now I’m On the Verge of Panicking

Take a deep breath, everything will be fine. Contrary to what our assumptions might be in this whiff-heavy modern game, there are still good batting averages lying around in the second half of drafts. And not just average, as this tier also has some sneaky goodies and is one of my favorites to shop in.

  • A.J. Pollock, OF 45 (211 ADP, OF 55) – 2021: .297 AVG, .285 xBA
  • Charlie Blackmon, OF 58 (240 ADP, OF 59) – 2021: .270 AVG, .292 xBA
  • Michael Brantley, OF 63 (257 ADP, OF 64) – 2021: .311 AVG, .312 xBA
  • Raimel Tapia, OF 64 (258 ADP, OF 68) – 2021: .273 AVG, .249 xBA
  • Brandon Nimmo, OF 47 (287 ADP, OF 76) – 2021: .292 AVG, .271 xBA
  • Luis Arraez, OF 78 (298 ADP, OF 78) – 2021: .294 AVG, .294 xBA

Michael Brantley will eternally be the natural batting average handcuff to players like Gallo but just because something is obvious doesn’t mean it won’t work. We know what we’re getting from Brantley; he’ll give you better than a .300 AVG and a non-embarrassing amount of runs – everything else will be gravy.

But when you take the combined 2021 stats for a hypothetical (and very swarthy-sounding) “Joel Brantallo”, you end up with two players with an average line of: 23 HR – 79 R – 62 RBI – 4 SB – .253 AVG. That might not seem overly sexy but it should be considering the needs you can fill at their two draft prices.

Barring a trade out of town, dem boys in Colorado both have draft costs that seem far too low. Because even having relatively down seasons, both Charlie Blackmon and Raimel Tapia finished as top-50 outfielders in 12-team leagues according to the RazzBall player rater, coming in even better on the FanGraphs auction calculator (#39 and #43, respectively). For comparison, that’s higher than Dylan Carlson, Trent Grisham, and Jorge Soler, all of whom are being drafted far earlier.

The field has been further crowded by the impending arrival of Freddie Freeman but I’m still bullish on A. J. Pollock, who gets no respect in drafts and thereby continues to be one of my favorite targets in 2022. Pollack finished as a top-40 OF last season, even though he was limited to just 422 PA, and should reap the benefits of an NL DH that will lead to more PAs and (hopefully) more health to go with the decreased time in the field.

My Brandon Nimmo hype train got derailed by injuries in 2021, finishing with 386 PA in 92 games after finger and hamstring injuries sent him to the IL. But it’s time to get that train back up to speed and officially declare 2022 as the SZN of Nimmo.

Comparing mine to other projections, the main differences are in playing time and batting average. For example, ATC projects a .262 AVG over 123 games and 522 PA, while FG Depth Charts says a .259 AVG over 134 games and 581 PA. But I think there are good reasons to be bullish on both.

  1. Nimmo ran a rotten .221 AVG in 2019 but also ended the year on fire after missing a large chunk of the season with a neck injury. He returned in September to slash .261/.430/.565 over his final 93 PA, with a .409 wOBA and .995 OPS. And in his total 692 PA since that return, Nimmo has slashed .283/.401/.461, with a .376 wOBA and .862 OPS.
  2. It may seem suspicious that his.292 AVG in 2021 was backed by a .366 BABIP and .271 xBA (with a .346 BABIP and .263 xBA from the combined period in #1). But Nimmo also has a career .345 BABIP and I’m okay with banking on the BABIP gods continuing to smile upon a left-handed hitter who has plus speed.
  3. Assuming health is always a dicey proposition but barring injuries there aren’t many reasons (offensive or defensive) to think that Nimmo won’t be playing nearly every day. He was a plus-defender in centerfield last season, with an OAA (outs above average) in the 86th percentile and a 6.2 UZR/150 that was the 11th highest among qualified center fielders (min 500 innings). The glove should play just as well with Starling Marte now pushing him to a corner (likely right field, with Mark Canha in left). And at the plate, Nimmo is better vs RHP  but did slash .306/.429/.398/.827 over 120 PA vs LHP in 2021, with a .372 wOBA (.369 wOBA vs RHP) and 139 wRC+.
  4. Nimmo has batted leadoff in 129 of his 160 games since returning from injury in September of 2019 (excluding pinch-hitting/running), batting second in 10 more. In addition to not having any splits issues, he is an on-base machine, with a career .393 OBP and over a .400 OBP in three of his past four seasons. Given history and skill-set, the rational part of my brain refuses to believe that the Mets won’t go Nimmo/Marte at the top of their order. And the Mets are always rational, right?
  5. Plate appearances are a function of lineup spot and team scoring. No more, no less. Batting leadoff in a majority of his games, Nimmo averaged 4.2 PA per game on a Mets team that scored 636 runs in 2021 – the fourth-fewest in baseball. Leadoff hitters on a top-10 scoring offense, on the other hand, will generally average around 4.4 PA/G or more. If you believe Nimmo is batting leadoff (I do!) and believe the Mets will be much better offensively (I do!), then Nimmo’s plate appearances will necessarily shoot up in an everyday role.

But Nicklaus, even though he’s the 77th OF by ADP, does ranking him as the OF 47 really necessitate declaring a formal Nimmo SZN? I mean, we do try not to joke around with things like that.

Well, let me definitively state for the committee that I promise to be the last person to ever disrespect the sanctity of declaring official SZNs. The ranking may feel a little SZN-lite but those are based on data-driven projections and I’m also not disallowing the chances he far outperforms them because the baseline dominoes for doing so aren’t unreasonably high.

If the Mets are a top-10 offense, Nimmo will blow past his PA projections if he’s playing every day and batting leadoff. Given health (big given!) and going by recent history, the latter two seem reasonable. And with how new-and-improved the Mets are, the former better seem reasonable, or else a whole mess of New Yorkers will spend 2022 even grumpier than usual.

Thus, the SZN designation has been bestowed on Nimmo because he would cruise to 650 PA in the above scenario, contributing in five categories while providing a plus batting average and pushing 100 runs scored.

Nim-mo SZ-ZN, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap.





 

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ginaroyalsfan
2 years ago

I was glad to see your take on Pollack. I targeted him in both my leagues and got him for 3 dollars in one league and as a waiver pick in the other, so he is still going really late. I think he’d be a great value as your last outfielder.

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Nicklaus Gautmember
2 years ago
Reply to  ginaroyalsfan

Sorry I missed responding to this. I’m a big fan too even though the ridiculous Dodgers lineup is going to push him down the lineup and limit his PAs. But to be fair, I never saw him as a +500 PA guy anyway so I don’t think it’ll kill his value. Especially because every time he gets on he’ll likely be followed by Turner, Betts, and Freeman – which is seriously just ridiculous to even type out lol. He’s my final outfielder on a number of teams so hopefully, he stays healthy!

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