Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 Catcher Rankings

More than any other position, how I approach drafting catchers will depend on my current roster construction as much as the actual player. Sometimes the “best” player available (according to my values) just won’t be a viable option given the state of my team stats prior.

With that in mind, here are my top-40 catchers for 2022. If you’re just joining us, you can find the first base ranks here and third base here.

ADP taken from NFBC drafts since 2.10.22 (n=29) and players are sorted by their most valuable fantasy position, following a hierarchy of: C > 2B > OF > 3B > 1B > S

 

Tier One

We probably shouldn’t assume that Salvador Perez will approach 50 HR again but it’s also unwise to ignore the signs from the past two seasons that are signaling a new version of his offensive profile, with Perez trading some discipline and contact for more power.

You should listen the first time when people tell you who they are but in baseball, we also need to listen when players give us strong signals of change. But unfortunately, while I do believe in Perez’s continued excellence, his current price is just too rich for my blood.

Tier Two

My values for J. T. Realmuto and Will Smith are virtually identical but deciding between the two would be more about roster construction, as you get more power from the latter and speed from the former. However, Smith is my bet if you’re looking for the player most likely to go full ham in 2022. Many projection systems have him for 507 PA even with a presumptive DH but that feels pretty light considering he just wrapped up 501 PA in 2021. I have him for 533 PA but also wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being run out in almost every game, Salvador-style, and that might make it ham-time.

Tier Three

Yasmani Grandal took getting on base to a whole new level in 2022, leading the league with a 23.8% BB% and a .420 OBP that only finished behind Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. You’ll likely have to pay retail but the safety of his floor makes me willing to do so.

But Grandal also had some power jumps that are worth noting, particularly considering his favorable home park and strong supporting cast:

Tier Four

Tyler Stephenson is about to finally be unshackled in 2022 and it’s not just about the presumptive DH coming to the NL While whatever extra DH games come his way will be nice, the real key to his newfound freedom is the trade of fantasy vampire, Tucker Barnhart, who had 388 PA in 2021 compared to Stephenson’s 402 PA.

Stephenson is one of the best options at the position for batting average, gets on base a ton (.366 OBP, 3rd-highest in 2021), and playing in Cincinnati will give a boost to the power that hasn’t quite come around yet. With a palatable price and a profile that’s easy to build around, Stephenson remains one of my favorite targets in all formats.

Mitch Garver could return top-five value if he crosses 400 PA but unfortunately, that threshold as of yet has been an impossible one for him to reach. Consistently nagged by injuries, Garver has maxed out at only 359 PA in 2019 and has a combined 324 PA in 91 games over the past two seasons. But when he’s actually on the field, Mitch usually rakes. If qualified, his .510 xwOBAcon would’ve been in the 98th percentile, while a 17.4 Brl% would’ve been in the 92nd.

Tier Five

Are you really super confident in Alejandro Kirk ending up with more PAs than Danny Jansen? Because I’m not.  If you’re hunting for batting average, Kirk is your huckleberry but Jansen is getting far too short of shrift and could match Kirk in total value, even if it’s more power-centric.

Small sample but Jansen powered up in the second half of 2022, running a 14.3% Brl% (up from 4.7% in the first half) and a 46.9% Air% (100+ mph) that was up from 28.9%. And Jansen’s average EV on balls in the air took a monster step forward in both halves. He finished 2021 with a 95.4 mph average EV (FB+LD), going from 94.5 mph in the first half to 96.6 mph in the second half. And both of those blew his numbers from 2020 (90.5 mph) and 2019 (92.6 mph) out of the water.

Tier Six

After the past month of “negotiations”, I’m not nearly as comfortable thinking that service-time manipulation will be less of an issue going forward. And that means Adley Rutschman, future hitting star as he may be, is off my board, outside of the deeper draft-and-hold formats. His offensive success in 2022 is just not so much of a guarantee that I can justify burning one of the few bench spots in leagues with more standard depth for 1-to 2 months. And not for nothing but I’m also not rushing to bet heavily on Baltimore bats after the new park dimensions were changed to lessen the bandboxiness of Camden.

Boring, old Yadier Molina is still going to return boring, old value that is above replacement level and will be a perfectly fine companion in 2022 to your #1 catcher in two-catcher formats. And he might be 39-years-old but one way or another, Yadi will give you 110+ games, which is more than can be said about much of the position.

Honestly, even with the boring numbers, Molina’s value could pop up simply from more accumulation in a brave, new NL DH world. Perhaps it’s only St. Louisians that understand how deep the cult of Molina goes and how much he wants to play every game possible, much as Adam Wainwright demands to pitch every inning possible. And with the DH on the horizon – and a Cardinals offense that is still incredibly shallow – I suspect Molina will win that fight even more often.

Tier Seven

Christian Vázquez went from batting near the middle of a good offense with power and average to batting near the bottom and competing for playing time with Kevin Plawecki. And while he showed a lot of pop in 2019 (23 HR in 521 PA, .044 HR/PA) and 2020 (7 HR in 189 PA, .037 HR/PA) that pop went poof in 2021.

Vázquez only hit 9 HR in 498 PA (.012 HR/PA) and saw big dips in key Statcast metrics for balls hit in the air.

Those numbers weren’t even elite before the power outage in 2021 and make me question whether the home runs prior were more due to happyfunballness than they were to actual skills. Perhaps I’d be more in on buying a bounceback for Vázquez if he came with a more substantive ADP discount after putting up value in 2021 that grouped him with Yadier Molina and Omar Narváez but he doesn’t so I’m out unless he happens to fall a lot in a two-catcher format.

Tier Eight

Tyler Stephenson may finally be free but it’s Eric Haase who will now have his fantasy lifeforce slowly drained by Tucker Barnhart. Haase was one of my favorite targets heading into 2022 but Detroit’s trade for Barnhart ended all of that, as he’ll now basically be stuck in the same position as Stephenson was last season.

Haase might be a far superior hitter but is a right-handed, poor defender who will share duties with someone who might be limited offensively but is left-handed and is a far superior defensive player, both overall and as a framer. If a much better hitter like Stephenson couldn’t wrestle more playing time from Barnhart, how will Haase? And sure, he’ll pick up some OF/DH ABs but the Tigers are also lousy with poor defenders that Haase will have to compete with, too, as well as super-prospect Riley Greene waiting in the minors. The skills are such as to still make Haase worthwhile in two-catcher formats but he’s completely off my list in one-catcher leagues.

Roberto Pérez has been wholly unspectacular as a part-timer over the past two seasons but did show renewed pop in 2021, hitting 7 HR in 141 PA after hitting just one over 110 PA in 2020. That’s not quite as good as rate as when he hit 24 HR over 449 PA in 2019 but Pérez’s 12.6 Brl% this past season was up from an 11.0% Brl% that season – and a far cry from the 3.4% Brl% short-sample misery from 2020.

Sure, Pittsburg will be bad but Pérez should certainly play considering he just got paid $5 million (making him the highest-paid Pirate) and is backed up by Michael Perez – he of the 38 wRC+ and .223 wOBA over the past two seasons.

Tier Nine

You should only be shopping down here in the deepest of two-catcher leagues as this tier is filled with suspect playing time and skills. But since Kansas City’s M. J. Melendez has gotten a lot of buzz this offseason, I figured I should at least make mention.

Melendez earned that buzz by putting up some seriously bonkers numbers across two levels in the minors last season:

Ok, so that is really good! And considering he’s basically raked at every level, I’m confident that the stick is for real. But outside of injuries, what exactly, is his path to a full-time role? I mean, even if you assume that Mondesi will be lost for the season at some point, the Royals still have some mouths to feed – and ones that are still being paid a lot. Perhaps Melendez hits so much that they just can’t keep him down but the chances of < 200 PA feels a lot more likely than > 300 PA.