2/6/22

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AL RP PREVIEW

• BAL: Félix Bautista (RP8)
• BOS: Kenley Jansen (RP10)
• NYY: Clay Holmes (RP12)
• TBR: Pete Fairbanks (RP21)
• TOR: Jordan Romano (RP4)

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This list is a little different than the others. First, RP in FanGraphs Points leagues, where saves and holds have value but are not a category, function fairly differently than in more traditional formats. You don’t need a closer, but having a middle reliever who never gets late-inning work isn’t ideal either. Role matters but it isn’t as simple as “go get the closers to pile up saves.” Second, I value RP differently than the market or any auction calculator. So we are going need a slightly longer intro before I just drop a table on you.
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Just as important as monitoring fastball velocities for spikes to identify potential breakouts, velocity declines might hint at potential injury and/or a drop in performance. So let’s now review the six pitchers who experienced early season velocity declines versus 2021 and find out if their velocities rebounded.

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Aside from discussing starting pitcher fastball velocity surgers at the beginning of the season, I also did the same for relief pitchers. In mono league formats, relievers could generate positive value, even without recording any saves, with strong ratios, and a high strikeout rate. Identifying breakouts early might allow you to pick up a reliever for free and shield a pitcher slot from ratio damage by a weak starter.

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2023 Drafts are now in full force over at the National Fantasy Baseball Contest, which has become an industry leader in terms of research for average draft position (ADP) data. NFBC ADP is especially useful because it involves only paid contests and many of the top players in the world play on the platform. As of now, there have been 11 completed drafts on the site with many more being done as we speak. Most of these drafts are 15-team draft champions leagues which are 50-round draft and hold formats. After completing one of those drafts myself recently and looking at the ADP, here are some of my thoughts on how the early ADP is shaping up. Read the rest of this entry »

• 2022 pVal Check-In #1.
• 2022 pVal Check-In #2.

How do you really know how well a pitcher’s fastball will perform before the season starts? You don’t. You basically just make an educated guess. Choosing good fastballs from the previous year seems to be a good way to go. But, choosing changeups that performed well in the past can bite you. While it may seem silly to get this micro, this niche, it can be a lot of fun to make picks before the season begins, and then forget about them. There’s no IL, no waiver claims, and no bench to ride. It’s just your preseason picks and the ever-rolling season and when it ends, you get to look back and either ask yourself, “What was I thinking?”, or, you get to puff your chest out and spend the winter months assuring yourself that you are a pVal prediction wizard. Pitching coaches should really be calling you when spring training kicks off again. Let’s take a look at where each of us FanGraphs contingent pVal competition participants finished out the 2022 season. As a reminder, here are all the picks you can make, provided to us by our friends at Pitcher List.

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Here’s a shock; Reynaldo López holds the sixth-best WAR and sixth-best FIP (as of games through 9/28/22) among qualified relievers in 2022. If you rostered him from the start of the season until now, which I’m sure you didn’t, you would have accumulated five wins, leveled out your ERA with a 2.84 contribution, and almost certainly lowered your overall WHIP thanks to his career-low 0.93.

In 2022 López lowered his BB% by nearly eight percentage points and increased his K% by over five percentage points when compared to his 2020 season. Just look at how his statcast percentile ranks have changed over that time:

How did he do it? I won’t dance around the answer trying to build tension, I’ll just deliver it up front; he became a reliever and started throwing harder. In 2022, he only started one game and in that start against the Texas Rangers on June, 10th, he only threw two innings, acting as an opener in what essentially was a bullpen game.

At the end of the 2020 season when López was 26 years old and holding a 6.49 ERA, the White Sox didn’t know what to do with the big righty. He started nine games and only threw 57.2 innings. In 2021, he bounced back and forth between reliever and starter roles, and in his reliever roles, he averaged two innings. In 2022, only 14 of his 59 games have gone over one inning. When a pitcher knows he is only going out for one inning, he can put a little more ompfff in his fastball:

It would certainly seem that throwing the ball harder on all of his four pitches used in 2022 has led to overall improvements, but each pitch on its own has improved in Whiff%. In addition, his overall out-of-zone swing % has improved.

So, is it that simple? Throw the ball harder for a shorter period of time and you’ll be better? You’ll double your WAR in a single season and you’ll more than double your WAR from two seasons ago? Decreasing his FIP has gone a long way when it comes to increasing his WAR. If a pitcher limit’s their home run totals while also limiting the walks they give up, they are on their way to an improved FIP.

But the real kicker here is that while he has lowered his FIP, increased his Whiff%, increased his Chase%, lowered his ERA, his WHIP, and his BB/9, López has held an unsustainably low HR/FB rate in 2022. He has only given up one home run on the year. Last year, he gave up 10. It’s not necessarily crazy for a reliever to give up only one home run. So far in 2022, there have been five qualified relievers who have given up one home run and 14 qualified relievers have given up only two home runs. But, scroll back up and look at López’s statcast percentiles and you will see that he still gives up hard contact.

In every year of his career, López has been above the average of balls in play that are fly balls. If he is still giving up hard contact, but in smaller samples as a reliever, and he is still putting the ball in the air more often than the average, yet he is no longer giving up home runs, what will happen?

Steamer projected 13 home runs to be hit off the Chicago righty, but to be fair, he was mostly projected as a starter. Regardless, let’s re-calculate his FIP on the year and throw in five more home runs for a total of six. His FIP is now 2.96 which is more in line with his xFIP of 3.27. Finally, here’s the point: Reynaldo López has gotten lucky this year with home runs. He has limited his walk rate and the home runs he has given up tremendously, but it’s not sustainable.

This may seem like an off-season article, but we’re nearly there. You may be looking through leaderboards and you may notice López’s excellent reliever WAR standing to finish off the year. You may notice his FIP. You may notice his velocity increase, his new role, and his improved whiff rate. Don’t get me wrong, López has had a nice season. It has been a great way to bounce back and become relevant once again. But, hidden under all those improvements, is fly ball/home run luck.

In some leagues, certainly not all but some, when a fantasy manager runs out of starts, they can still collect stats from relievers. Some ESPN leagues are set up this way. They have a limit on starts, but no limit on innings pitched. The rule is put in place so that managers cannot stream a pitcher every single day of the season, effectively juicing their strikeout and, possibly, win counting stats. This strategy would almost certainly ruin ratios and should not be utilized. I would be curious to see a simulation of how a fantasy team’s ERA/WHIP would pan out if they streamed an average starter every day of the season, but that’s for another time.

Today, I’m writing this article to simply show 10 relievers who are not closers and have recorded the most wins this season. For those who have reached a starter max but can still record reliever innings, pick up these pitchers now! For those who just need a few more wins, start utilizing (if you haven’t already, why?!) the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart and stream these pitchers in favorable matchups or after a day of rest. Here are the non-closer relievers who lead MLB in wins this season:

Predicting reliever wins is a difficult task. In fact, Steamer (ROS) is over it. If we look at all relievers (0 IP min) from 2021 and all relievers (0 IP min) from 2022, the correlation coefficient between their win totals is 0.42, good for a 0.17 R-squared. I’m also including pitchers who recorded zero wins in both years, which inflates the R-squared slightly, but still seems informative.

The fact that we see very few, if any, relievers in the top right corner of the graph shows just how unrepeatable high win totals can be for relievers across multiple years. However, in season, out of all relievers who collected at least one win by mid-July in 2021, 57% of them collected a second win in the remainder of the year. Change that threshold to at least two wins by mid-July, and 67% of those pitchers collected at least one win in the back half of the season. Here’s a breakdown:

What can we make of this? Relievers who perform well enough to be awarded a win in the first half of the season continue to get chances in the second half of the season. This is probably still very random. If a reliever is used in the sixth, seventh, or eighth inning often, they are increasing their opportunities to snag wins. But even the correlation coefficient between first half of the season wins and second half of the season wins in 2021 was still only 0.38 (0.14 R-squared). Reliever wins are mostly random, just like the official scorer’s awarding of the win can sometimes be.

Take for example Diego Castillo’s most recent win which occurred on July 16th. First off, that was a long time ago and if you’re just looking at the table of relievers above and adding them to your roster, you’re not doing enough. Regardless, Castillo threw in a tied (2-2) bottom of the ninth inning against the Rangers. He walked a batter, forced a double-play ball, and then struck out the third batter he faced. The Mariners then scored in the top of the 10th and Matthew Festa shut the door to get the save, giving Castillo the win. However, Paul Sewald got three quick outs in the bottom of a tied (2-2) eighth inning and was awarded nothing! He didn’t even walk a batter as Castillo did. Castillo got the win, simply because his team scored in the half-inning after he pitched. Random.

If you’re here at FanGraphs reading about baseball, chances are you have heard about the randomness of the win. Some of you may have even dropped wins from your fantasy leagues’ roto categories. However, it remains a common category and I would bet that the vast majority of fantasy leagues still count the win. If that’s the case, and you could use a few more before the season ends, you should bank on the relievers who up until this point in the season have been recording wins. Just hope that you’re rostering them on the random day that they record another.

On Monday, September 5th, Labor Day, I sat in parking lot traffic in Baltimore, trying to make it into Camden Yards by the first pitch. This was a first in a long time. I wasn’t clogged in a traffic jam trying to leave the parking lot, I was trying to get in. As a Maryland native, Camden Yards has been the place where I’ve taken in the majority of my live baseball action and I could tell, as parking lot attendants waived me on to the next lot around the block, something was in the air. When I got to the stadium, there was more energy, more talk in the crowd about the actual team, and though the nose-bleed seats in left-field remained empty, there were more fans. Baltimore has always drawn an excellent, engaged fanbase to the stadium. But as you can imagine, the past few years have been a little quieter. On Monday the fans piled in to watch a pivotal matchup against the division rival Blue Jays and in the top of the eighth, the Orioles held the game at a one-run deficit.

O’s reliever Bryan Baker was throwing when this happened:

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Making trades is fun for fantasy managers, but it’s tough. It’s really tough. You always feel like you’re getting tricked when you get an offer and you likely only make offers that look like tricks. There’s a better way. Now that the trade deadline has passed and closer roles have shifted, there are still opportunities for saves in your league and you can get them right off the wire. Here are a few key role changes that are likely to take place now that the trade deadline dust has settled. See if you can take advantage of a few.

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•Félix Bautista, BAL: Takes over for Jorge López. | Roster Resource

Bautista may be a large part of the reason the Orioles were willing to trade Jorge López. He is a must-add in all formats as he’s expected to take over the closer role right away. His Steamer rest-of-season (ROS) projection for saves is now at 10. Before López’s departure, Bautista had three saves and one blown save. While López did get nearly all the chances, Bautista has been the next man up for the majority of the season. It’s possible he may not be able to go as often as a closer given his max-effort style of throw. However, he has appeared in back-to-back games 11 times so far in 2022. It’s still likely that Dillon Tate and Cionel Pérez get opportunities to save a few games and their value has increased because of it. In addition, they should be given more opportunities to record holds, as they move up the pecking order.

•Scott Effross, NYY: Slots into a set-up role. | Roster Resource

Effross has been very impressive this season but he’ll still have to compete with Aroldis Chapman, the returned from injury Jonathan Loáisiga, and newly acquired Lou Trivino. He may be worth rostering in holds leagues, but he’ll be sharing a lot of those opportunities with some really good relievers. Our bullpen chart has him as the next man up for now, but we’ll just have to keep an eye on how the Yankees utilize him. He’s worth an add in deep leagues for sure.

•Jorge López, MIN: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

Previously the closer role had been split between Jhoan Duran and Emilio Pagán, but López should be the main man now. While Duran still holds value with a steamer ROS save total of three, he’ll likely also be a very strong set-up man recording holds and wins. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him collect more than three saves the rest of the season, but regardless, his 2.15 ERA and 11.35 K/9 are valuable on their own.

•José Quijada & Ryan Tepera, LAA: Join a committee. | Roster Resource

Tepera now has a steamer ROS save total of 10 and if that’s the case, he needs to be added to fantasy rosters now. However, take caution as we have Quijada listed as a “Reliever on the Rise” and he was the first reliever to get a save opportunity after Iglesias was traded away. Was Tepera unavailable? Well, he did not pitch the previous day. Quijada’s ERA sits at 3.15 but his xERA is only 2.10, whereas Tepera is sporting a 4.26 (xERA of 3.59). Do you have two roster spots open? Probably not. This one is a gamble.

•Raisel Iglesias, ATL: Slots into a set-up role. | Roster Resource

I’m sure many fantasy managers who drafted high on Iglesias can agree that this is a bummer. Kenley Jansen will remain the closer in Atlanta. Will Smith had recorded five saves along with A.J. Minter before the trade deadline, so there is opportunity there. However, Iglesias has been shakey this season with his 4.04 ERA and limited chances for saves. I’m not dropping him, nor should you, but his steamer ROS save total is down to two and I would say there’s a two-save error bar on either side of that prediction.

•Mychal Givens, NYM: Slots into a set-up role. | Roster Resource

Drew Smith has 14 holds and he is one of 21 relievers with at least 14 holds on the year. Adam Ottovino and Seth Lugo are right behind him 12 apiece. The Mets are just about middle of the MLB pack with a total of 56 holds on the season. Oakland, of all teams, leads the MLB in holds with 75. I write all of this to make the point that Givens is a quality arm to roster in holds leagues. But, he was that way before the trade to New York so maybe this was all pointless to write.

•David Robertson, PHI: Joins a committee. | Roster Resource

Steamer’s ROS save total for Robertson is seven and that seems like a very reasonable mark. He’s probably going to get the lion’s share of opportunities, but Seranthony Domínguez and Brad Hand have been holding down the fort all season as Corey Knebel struggled and went through injury. Robertson was most likely rostered in your league but if he wasn’t, pick him up. Domínguez and Hand are also worth rostering until there’s more clarity in that committee.

•Rowan Wick, CHC: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

With Robertson and Givens traded away, Wick is really the last man standing. His 4.36 ERA (4.93 xERA) is a little worrisome, but steamer’s ROS believes he’ll record another 12 saves! That likely has a lot to do with the fact that he’s clearly the man for the job, but I would take caution in believing he will get all 12 of those saves. The Cubs are projected for 28 more wins, but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they start testing out roles to see what they have in their younger arms. I would take the under, but I’m also running to the waiver wire to pick him up.

•Devin Williams, MIL: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

Williams has been a closer quality reliever for a long time and now he gets the chance to prove he can handle the full-time role. Both Taylor Rogers and Matt Bush went through demotions from the closer role this season and need to find themselves again to be competitive for the job. If Williams is not already claimed in your league, who are you playing with? Pick him up now.

•Josh Hader, SDP: Takes over the closer role. | Roster Resource

Those who ran to the waiver wire to pick up Luis García upon Rogers’ demotion were probably elated for about 12 hours. Hader is a sure shot to take over the full-time role and fantasy managers who are not in holds leagues can probably drop García and Nabil Crismatt. As much as I wish Crismatt would close out a game or two on nothing but changeups, I don’t think it will happen.

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