The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Strategy Section

• 1st & 2nd Rounds
  • What should you accomplish in the 1st two rounds?
  • Do you need to draft a starting pitcher in the first few rounds of drafts?
  • Overvalued players
    • Should you draft catchers in the first two rounds?
    • Ohtani at 1.1 ?
  • Undervalued players
    • Freddie Freeman’s consistency
  • Players drafted outside the first two rounds, but should be drafted earlier.
  • The Top 3
    • Why Elly De La Cruz should and shouldn’t be considered to be drafted just outside the top 3.
• The ATC Volatility Metrics
• Corner Infield strategy
  • Player pool

ATC Undervalued Players

• Corner Infielders
  • • Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
    • Alec Bohm 3B
    • Yandy Díaz 1B
    • Luis Rengifo 2B/3B
    • Nolan Arenado 3B
    • Andrew Vaughn 1B
    • Michael Busch 1B
    • Ryan McMahon 3B

Injury Update

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Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | MI | OF

You can find all of the information about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to these rankings. I’ve matched his tiers so that it’s easy to compare across rankings and to provide a common language to discuss these rankings.

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that were posted last year, not the updated 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is currently rolling out.
• P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Despite some of the big names populating the top of this position group, offensive production from first basemen has hit a nadir over the last few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. If you miss out on one of the top options at the position, you’re probably stuck with a guy you might need to platoon or with some other flaw. It also means that Util-only players like Ohtani, Ozuna, or Pederson can reasonably take the place of a second 1B on your roster if you don’t mind the inflexibility they bring to your lineup.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on each tier below and discuss the outlier players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Not much more to say about these four guys beyond the obvious. If you want premium production from 1B, you’re going to have to pay up.

Here’s the cliff. There’s a pretty dramatic step down in production from Olson to Alonso but I think I’m more willing to pay for one of these mid-tier 1Bs than Chad is. That’s why I’ve got Walker, Casas, and Naylor all a tier higher than he does.

Ozuna is a really tough one to rank. His positional limitations will obviously hamper your lineup, but his outstanding production is undeniable. Like Chad, I prefer to have my Util open to flex in whomever I want, but there are maybe 18-20 guys who are projected to post a higher P/G than Ozuna is.

I’ve got some real concerns about Díaz’s ability to continue to produce at a high level outside of Tropicana Field. He gets so much more production out of his high groundball rate than you’d expect thanks to the turf inside the Rays’ ruined ballpark, but I’m worried that he won’t enjoy the same success now that the team will have to play in an outdoor Single-A ballpark this year.

Given a full-time role with the Cubs last year, Busch had a breakout season where he posted the 10th best wOBA among first basemen with at least 400 PAs. Losing 2B and 3B eligibility definitely hurts his overall value, but he’s serviceable as a 1B-only and there are certainly worse options at the position.

I’m not sure what to expect from Encarnacion-Strand. A wrist injury derailed his season last year and he’s only really accumulated half a season’s worth of plate appearances in the big leagues across the last two years. And the Reds seem intent on accumulating as many infielders as they can, which raises some playing time questions for CES and the other corner infielders on their roster. I’m fine paying a bit for his power potential, but I wouldn’t pay a premium with so many questions still surrounding him.

I was looking forward to this list and it turned out to be pretty uninspiring. Even while merging in the utility-only bats like Shohei Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna, this group isn’t as exciting as 1B used to be. For years it felt like a necessity to have two 1B to fill 1B and Util, because those were the biggest boppers. It doesn’t feel as true today.

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1/17/25

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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FIRST BASE PREVIEW PT. 3:

Something to Prove

• Isaac Paredes
• Ryan Mountcastle
• Michael Toglia
• Andrew Vaughn
• Nathaniel Lowe
• Jeimer Candelario
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand
• Spencer Torkelson
• Jonathan Aranda

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Earlier this week, Lucas and Jake covered some tough decisions at CI (and helped me make some tough decisions, as well). Today, it is my turn.

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After Chad Young and Lucas Kelly covered their keep or cut decisions at catcher before Thanksgiving, I’m kicking off our coverage of the two corner infield positions this week.

–

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Salary: $11
Average Salary: $21
2024 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.08

Paul Goldschmidt limped through his worst season in the big leagues at age 36, setting career worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, isolated power, wOBA, xwOBA, walk rate, and strikeout rate. He’s a free agent and entering his age-37 season. He just might be cooked.

So let’s turn to the favorite tool of the fantasy baseball optimists, the rolling graph:

Here we see Goldschmidt’s season in 20-game increments. There’s a noticeable peak during the second half of the season. Indeed, he posted a .271/.319/.480 slash line and a 120 wRC+ after the All-Star break. That’s still a far cry from his peak as a slugging first baseman, but it’s definitely useful and his little hot streak in early September gave us a glimpse of what he could be in his old age.

In a fantasy baseball format so laser focused on future value, aging veterans often go undervalued in Ottoneu. I picked up Goldschmidt for $9 in September after a frustrated owner cut him to clear some cap space. His current $21 average salary is assuredly inflated by owners who held onto him through the end of the season but are planning on cutting him prior to the keeper deadline. In my preliminary rankings based on the currently available Steamer projections (and a homebrew of other data sources), I have Goldschmidt ranked around tenth at the position in a tier with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nathaniel Lowe among others. Of course I’d rather have either of those two younger hitters in my lineup, but Goldschmidt will probably come cheaper than any of the other players in the tier.

Will he be worth $11 next year? Steamer seems to think that he isn’t as cooked as his 2024 season would lead us to believe. Five points per game from a first baseman isn’t as bad as you might expect from the position. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but offensive production from first basemen has gone missing the past few years — collectively first basemen produced a 104 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark for the position since 1963. According to the Auction Calculator, Lowe returned $11 in value in 2024 with a .337 wOBA. Goldschmidt’s wOBA during the second half of the season was .340. I’m willing to bet that a hitter as good as he is will figure out a way to continue to be productive in 2025 and hold off Father Time for at least one more year.

Keep or cut?

I’m keeping at $11 and I’d consider it all the way up to $14 or $15. I wouldn’t want to head into the season with Goldschmidt as the only 1B on my roster, but I think there’s probably a bit of life left in his bat.

–

Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B/OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $16
2024 P/G: 5.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.49

I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard. I’ve got Jazz on my roster at a salary a dollar under the Ottoneu average and I think that average is going to see a lot of inflation during draft season. His helium after getting traded to the Yankees is very real and probably deserved. He increased his hard hit rate from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York fueling a very nice 69 point increase in isolated power. His 132 wRC+ with the Yanks was much more in line with his short-lived breakout back in 2022 than his injury-plagued season in ‘23 and the beginning of this year.

This, then, is more of a warning to keep your expectations in check. This year represented the first time Chisholm was able to cross the 600 PA threshold in his career as he was finally healthy for the majority of the year. Beyond the injury concerns, there’s also his unsustainable home run rate that fueled a lot of his production in New York — nearly a quarter of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, a level reserved for the best sluggers in the game. Sure, Jazz has enjoyed elevated home run rates in the past (23.3% and 23.5% in 2022 and ‘23), but those both came in injury abbreviated seasons and home run rates usually take a while to stabilize.

I’ll go ahead and argue against myself and point out that Chisholm increased his pull rate after joining the Yankees, no doubt looking to take advantage of the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium. There’s no question he was energized after the trade and made some key adjustments to improve his batted ball quality, I just think that some level-headed thinking should temper our expectations a bit. Steamer seems to agree, pegging Jazz for a wOBA exactly in line with his overall 2024 line (which includes the lackluster performance he put together in Miami before the trade).

I’ve got him ranked somewhere around eighth at 3B in a tier with Mark Vientos, Matt Chapman, and Max Muncy. The position is actually quite deep these days which means his upside really needs to stand out against all the other options out there. I’d rather roster him or Vientos than Chapman or Muncy if I’m picking one out of that tier.

Keep or cut?

I’m happily keeping at $15 and I think it probably makes sense up to around $18. There’s also the question of where the Yankees will end up playing Jazz next year after the departure of Gleyber Torres. If they move him back to 2B and he ends up regaining eligibility there, his value will skyrocket.

–

Jake Burger, 1B/3B
Salary: $16
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.96
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.03

Jake Burger had a weird season this year. He was injured in early April, really struggled upon his return, and then was pretty streaky through the end of the season. He produced some phenomenal numbers in July and August — a 162 wRC+ during those two summer months — but struggled pretty dramatically during the other four months of the season. His full season slash line ended up being just okay at .250/.301/.460 good for a 106 wRC+. That was a pretty significant step back from his breakout in 2023.

The good news is that his batted ball peripherals looked pretty stable from that breakout year. His hard hit and barrel rates both decreased slightly, but they were still among the best in the game. He incrementally improved his plate discipline and contact rate as well. It kind of seems like his struggles were mostly BABIP related and a product of an elevated ground ball rate.

As soon as he cut his ground ball rate to around 40% in the middle of the season, his power numbers exploded. That’s not surprising for someone with his kind of batted ball quality, but it’s good to see it layed out so nicely in that graph above.

Because of his inconsistent performance this year, I’ve got him ranked around 13th at the position in a tier alongside fellow 1B/3Bs Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes. His batted ball peripherals are better than both of those other hitters, making his upside a little more tangible.

Keep or cut?

I do like Burger and I think he’ll be better than his ‘24 numbers and Steamer projection suggest, but I think $16 is too much to pay for the risk that he doesn’t figure it out. I think I’d be happier paying between $10 and $12 all things considered.

Last week, I shared the end of season rankings and dollar values of the 40 first basemen I ranked during the preseason. I began with the hitters that earned a profit of at least $4 on their projected value, and then shared the hitters that took a loss of at least $8 versus their projected value. Today, let’s discuss the unranked — those hitters who failed to make my top 40, but found themselves inside the top 40 most valuable first basemen at the end of the season.

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Yesterday, I shared the end of season rankings and dollar values of the 40 first basemen I ranked during the preseason. I began with the hitters that earned a profit of at least $4 on their projected value. Today, let’s dive into the misses, or those that earned at least $8 less than forecasted.

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For the first time this year, the RotoGraphs team introduced a formal, organized positional ranking series that we updated on a weekly basis during spring training and through the season opener. I chose to take ownership of the first base position and you should refresh your memory of my final rankings before the season began. Let’s now review those final rankings and how each of the hitters ultimately performed.

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First Base Overview

This year’s group of first base eligibles is not your grandmother’s player crop. The depth here just ain’t great and feels thinner than during my younger years, before some of my hairs decided “salt and pepper” was the new brown.

What’s interesting here is how many first basemen also steal bases, as four of them are forecasted for double digits, and another three feature upper single digit projections that could easily end up higher. So fantasy managers now have more options — do you target an all-around contributor who essentially gives you contributions you might expect from an outfielder or the traditional masher to lock down 10% or more of your team’s home run total? The choice is yours, but hopefully these tiered rankings will help you make such an important decision.

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