Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at CI

Salaries can inflate as the season goes on. A player that makes you think pass as the auction price heads above $2 in March may look more like an easy $4 in the middle of July. Ben Rice is that player. But what do you do with him once the season is over? Check RosterResource? Follow the offseason beat? Or, take matters into your own hands and head to the winter meetings to ask the brass some hard-hitting questions? Whatever you choose, you can also incorporate a plethora of statistics to make your decisions more informed. Join me as I grapple with my own keep/cut decisions at the corner-infield position.

Replacement level 1B (24 rostered): 4.55 P/G

Replacement level 3B (24 rostered): 4.36 P/G

2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF – SP – RP

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Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $6
2024 P/G: 4.24
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.54

Draw three straight lines, each one right through the middle of the red, blue, and yellow lines starting in 2021 and going through 2024, and you’ll end up very close to what you can expect from Candelario in 2025. That’s only as good as a projected 4.54 P/G, roughly replacement level for CI:

Please excuse the blur at the top of the graph from my FanGraphs Orioles-themed holiday lights (available to Members like you!)

The declines from 2023 to 2024 above (wOBA, SLG, AVG) combined with an increased K% from 22.0% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024 is concerning, but Steamer is projecting a bounce back in batting average and OBP with stable slugging. The 20+ home runs he’s hit in back-to-back seasons have kept him at replacement level, and Steamer thinks he’ll repeat with 21 bombs in 2025. The evidence points to another season of just above replacement level for Candelario. In that case, shouldn’t I only be rostering him at a $1 cost? Maybe $2? Not exactly. Think of all the minor leaguers you’re rostering above $1 and you’ll see that the salary scale doesn’t work out that way. I could calculate Candelario’s points above the replacement level to try to justify his salary. I could also look at the current 1B/3B free agents around the 4.60 P/G mark and debate whether or not they would be better on my team in 2025. Or, I could just cut him, see if I can bid for him at a lower price in the draft, and hope I’m right about all of the above if I get outbid. I think I’ll go with that last one.

Keep or Cut?

Cut.

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Ben Rice, 1B/3B
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/G: 2.74
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.82

$4 was a good price for a player who took over full-time at the first base position when Anthony Rizzo went on the IL. Now you’re thinking, the Yankees declined Antony Rizzo’s club option for 2025 and Rice is the man to take his spot! RosterResource disagrees for now. It’s possible that DJ LeMahieu could play in 100 games in 2025, but not very. So we’re back to the playing time question. Will Rice play in the 89 games he’s projected for in 2025? If he does, what will you get out of it? In his 50 games as a big leaguer in 2024, he displayed a 15.6% barrel rate, a solid 87.3% zone contact rate, and posted much higher xSLG metrics than his actuals thanks to good contact quality and a dismal .186 BABIP. But, he struck out too much (27.0%) and had difficulty hitting breaking balls. He also hit poorly against lefties and will need to do better or find himself in a platoon. Rice certainly has potential and has shown he can hit in the big leagues, but too many adjustments to make to become an everyday big leaguer in 2025. $4 is too high a price for that.

Keep or Cut?

Cut.

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Nolan Schanuel, 1B/3B
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/G: 4.31
Proj 2025 P/G: 5.03

Can Schanuel take a step forward in 2025? That has to be the question because, while he’s still very young heading into his age 23 season, he has not yet shown much fantasy relevance besides an accumulation of 607 plate appearances. That’s worth something, but it’s not worth $5 on its own. Schanuel’s 2024 zone contact rate was one of the highest in the league, 19th among qualified hitters. But it came with neither a high batting average (.250BA, .260xBA) or power performance (.362SLG, .364xSLG). His .285 BABIP did not help, but his expected stats don’t indicate all bad luck. He put the ball on the ground (46.1%) more often than average (42.2%), but not at an exaggerated rate. The most worrisome aspect of his profile is his poor performance against fastballs. He’s getting to them (K%: 13.8%), but he’s not doing much with them once they’re in play, slashing only .212/.332/.330 against four-seamers. If he had better underlying metrics; barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, I’d be interested in keeping him. He has very good plate discipline and contact rates which indicate he could take a step forward in batting average in 2025, but in an Ottonue points league format, I’m not interested in keeping him.

Keep or Cut?

Cut.

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Josh Bell, 1B/3B
Salary: $3
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/G: 4.80
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.92

It’s hard to believe that Bell is going into his age 32 season. He’s a free agent. Regardless, he’s projected (Steamer) to slug above average (.418) and hit another 20 home runs. If you read Candelario’s analysis above, you’re probably wondering what the difference is between these two players:

From a points perspective, not much. What Bell loses in slugging percentage and stolen bases, he makes up for with walks. Both are expected to be just about average players. This is tremendously more believable given these are veteran players who have accumulated large sample sizes adding more confidence to their projections. Just as you could with Candelario’s chart, you can draw a straight line somewhere between Bell’s 2021 marks and 2024 marks and reasonably expect the performance of where the line ends for 2025:

If you had to choose between the two, you could consider Candelario’s up and down performance related to injury and Bell’s downward trajectory as a sign of aging, keep one and cut the other. In my case, I’ll cut both and hope I can save $1-$2 in a re-draft.

Keep or Cut?

Cut.

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Juan Yepez, 1B/3B
Salary: $3
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/G: 4.68
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.90

Out of the five players analyzed in this article, Juan Yepez had the second-highest points per game mark in 2024 behind Josh Bell. That’s slightly above the 1B replacement-level mark of 4.55 P/G. Let’s start with the basics. Yepez is still young at age 26. He has three seasons of MLB experience, yet his time in 2023, the middle season, was limited to 65 plate appearances with the Cardinals. He showcased an above-average zone contact rate in the two seasons in which he accumulated more than 200 plate appearances. That is good. Sadly, the supportive power metrics (Barrel%, HardHit%, HR/FB) do not support quality contact to go along with that zone contact. He’s displayed pockets of solid power in the form of slugging percentage over his three seasons, but has never kept things consistent enough, for long enough:

Head over to Yepez’s BaseballSavant page and you’ll see that he has not yet qualified for Statcast percentile rankings. His maxEV is in the 84th percentile, but that little piece of evidence wouldn’t sway a jury. But may I now point your attention ladies and gentlemen of the jury, to his L/R splits:

vs.R: .253/.311/.446 (161 PA)

vs.L: .375/.409/.575 (88 PA)

He’s out here just crushing lefties. A .575 slugging percentage is better than what Juan Soto (.569), Yordan Alvarez (.567), and Brent Rooker (.562) did to all pitchers in 2025. No, I’m not insinuating that Juan Yepez against lefties is Juan Soto, but he did strike out (16.9%) at nearly the same rate as Juan Soto (16.7%) against all pitchers in 2024. That’s down a great deal from 2022’s 30.8% and that high 2022 mark is likely what got him sent to the minor leagues in early June of that season with the Cardinals. Much of that decreased K% can be explained if you view his decreased swinging strike rates on individual pitches:

Above we see that this young hitter has developed over time against specific pitches. It’s great if you can lower your K% by picking up the fastball a little better, but doing so against three different pitches indicates a developing maturity in approach. If Yepez can have a good spring, make the opening-day roster, and stick to his approach from 2024, he will be worth keeping. I’ll take the chance. His ceiling may only be slightly above replacement level and I could be accused of trying to talk myself into keeping him, but I think he deserves a full season of baseball before I cut him. I hope he can get it with the Nats in 2025. The Nats RosterResource page has him listed as next season’s 1B with no platoon tag.

Keep or Cut?

Keep.