First Base 2024 Fantasy Rankings Review — The Unranked
Last week, I shared the end of season rankings and dollar values of the 40 first basemen I ranked during the preseason. I began with the hitters that earned a profit of at least $4 on their projected value, and then shared the hitters that took a loss of at least $8 versus their projected value. Today, let’s discuss the unranked — those hitters who failed to make my top 40, but found themselves inside the top 40 most valuable first basemen at the end of the season.
Name | EoS 1B Rank | EoS $ Val as 1B |
---|---|---|
Jurickson Profar | 4 | $20 |
Alec Burleson | 12 | $12 |
Mark Vientos | 20 | $7 |
Michael Busch | 23 | $5 |
Carlos Santana | 26 | $4 |
Luke Raley | 27 | $4 |
Michael Toglia | 32 | $2 |
Ryan O’Hearn | 34 | $2 |
There were 5 additional hitters in the top 40 (Brendan Donovan, Tyler Stephenson, Connor Wong, Brandon Lowe, Dylan Moore), but these names all qualify at positions you would almost assuredly play them at instead, so I left them out of this discussion.
A whopping 12 years after he made his MLB debut, Jurickson Profar finally enjoyed the breakout year everyone expected from the one-time top prospect back in the early 2010s. What’s interesting here is that nearly all his metrics finished at levels he’s reached before, so it really was just a matter of putting everything together in the same season. He did set a couple of career bests, but the most glaring one was his BABIP, at .302. Incredibly, this is the first time in his entire career that he posted a .300+ BABIP! He cut down on his IFFB%, which improved to a career best, though his LD% also fell to the second lowest of his career, so I’m not sure his batted ball profile was actually any better. Speaking of which, he also barely set a new career high in FB%, which normally would be a negative for BABIP.
His power, both from an ISO and HR/FB perspective, rebounded of a series of down years, but he was actually at this level and better back in 2018 and 2019. So this is nothing new, but it did come with by far his highest HardHit%, and a new career best Barrel%. It almost seems like he deserved even better power results! He also returned to double digit steals, boosting his fantasy value even further.
Overall, I’m not sure why he suddenly put it all together this year, and I’d guess that this ends up being his dream season, never to be repeated again. Without any truly standout skills, it won’t take much to fall back into a borderline shallow league option that gets added and dropped as he hits hot streaks and slumps next year.
With just a .319 wOBA, this wasn’t exactly a real baseball breakout for Alec Burleson. His walk rate dipped from an already too low figure, while his strikeout rate remained stable, which is actually a good thing, as it’s fantastic. He also posted a nearly identical batted ball profile, except for more pop-ups. His BABIP slightly increased from well below average to just below average, his HardHit% barely inched up, his maxEV was nearly the same, his Barrel% was slightly higher, as was his ISO. He was almost the exact same player as last year, except he upped his HR/FB rate from just 8.2% to 12%. That led to a better home run rate, but not more overall power, oddly enough.
He also increased his stolen base frequency, as those nine steals were a surprise and added to his value. And because he puts the ball in play so often, what appears to be just a marginally increased BABIP actually resulted in his batting average rising from just .244 to .269, which is actually positive value these days.
This is not a very exciting skill set. I love the strikeout rate, but it’s more because he’s a free-swinger, rather than making elite contact (though his SwStk% has remained in single digits). His HardHit% and maxEV suggest he probably has more power in his bat to up that Barrel%, and that would get me interested if he could maintain the strikeout rate.
Who needs Brett Baty when you have Mark Vientos?! Even with just 454 PAs, he managed to rank 20th among first basemen and earn $7. While he continued to swing and miss often, that was offset this time by a huge BABIP surge. However, Statcast’s xBA suggests much of that was good fortune, which means a .266 batting average is unlikely to be repeated without an improvement in strikeout rate.
However, the exciting thing here is the power. With an excellent HardHit% and maxEV, he was able to boost his Barrel% to a near elite level, driving a HR/FB rate that ranked third highest among hitters with at least 450 PAs. While you have to assume some regression there, he should be a lock for at least a low-20% HR/FB rate next year, which should make him a good bet for 30+ dingers. Of course, with no speed and a batting average likely to fall, his upside is that of just a two-category contributor.
When the Cubs acquired Michael Busch, we assumed they were doing so with the intention of giving him a starting job, but that was no sure thing. The team still had former top prospect Matt Mervis, but the team clearly soured on him and he did nothing at Triple-A this year to convince them he has a future with the team. Luckily, Busch was up for the job to play regularly at first base.
What I love here is that although he struck out at a high-20% rate, he actually posted a very solid 11.5% SwStk%, suggesting either he was a bit too passive, which led to both more walks and strikeouts, or he just had bad sequencing luck and is due for a better strikeout rate next season. Either way, it’s a good sign that his strikeout rate shouldn’t get any worse, at least.
His profile was interesting, as he posted a nice batted ball distribution for a power hitter, slightly leaning toward a flyball tendency. However, the home run power was above average, but nothing special. It came was a sub-110 MPH maxEV, a decent, but not great, HardHit%, yet a double digit Barrel%. It’s a weird combo. He also added a .322 BABIP, which is a surprise, as the batted ball profile doesn’t suggest an above average mark, though he’s done that for his entire minor league career. His Statcast xBA does suggest he was quite lucky with the BABIP, so he’ll likely need to up the power to be worthy of your fantasy roster next year if the batting average falls.
Carlos Santana is still playing?! His skills have been incredibly consistent, so the assumption this year was that at some point, the dramatic decline had to come. Clearly this wasn’t the season that was going to happen. He posted similar fantasy stats to his 2023, though worse runs scored and RBI numbers, and yet still snuck into the top 30 first baseman, making his deep league owners, particularly those in OBP formats, quite pleased. While there are small signs of decline, like an increased SwStk% the last two seasons, there’s really nothing else to suggest he’s ready to hang up his cleats.
It wasn’t easy keeping Luke Raley in a fantasy lineup in weekly transaction leagues as he was a true platooner and recorded just 455 PAs. But he proved his 2023 was no fluke, even upping his HR/FB rate. Given his elite maxEV, I would have expected a higher HardHit% and Barrel%, but both are solid enough to believe he’s a legit high teens/low-20 HR/FB rate guy. He did lose some FB% though, which cut into his home run total. Oddly, his batted ball distribution was far superior to his 2023, but his BABIP actually fell.
To go along with the power, he swiped 11 bases, which was less than 2023’s total of 14, but still good enough to boost his fantasy value and give him a 20/10 season.
The other skills ain’t so great, as he rarely walks, and swings and misses often. Just looking at his SwStk%, combined with his sub-30% strikeout rate, it’s clear that this is a free swinger who would strike out even more if he owned better plate patience, which would also increase his walk rate. Given his age and platoon status, I don’t see much upside from here, but he makes for a reasonable power option in deep leagues.
Michael Toglia was probably the quietest 25-home run season in quite some time. Not only did he knock 25 dingers, but he also stole 10 bases! And while those totals are great, little else was here, and his splits were absolutely bizarre.
Toglia’s power was fully supported by elite Statcast numbers, including the sixth highest Barrel% among those with at least 450 PAs. He took full advantage of his power by posting a FB% over 40%, which is exactly what you want to see, especially from a hitter who plays half his games in a park that boosts home runs. But oddly, his power output was significantly on the road! He posted a .286 ISO there, versus just a .189 mark at Coors Field, while his HR/FB rate stood at 27% and 17.8%, respectively. You don’t see hitters hit for so much more power away from Coors very often, if at all.
The world gets back in order when looking at his BABIP splits though. He posted a .333 mark at home, versus just a .207 mark on the road. That finally makes sense! But it makes him tough to platoon in your lineup if you had planned to only start your Coors hitters at home or had at least one homestand during the week. That said, one year is hardly a big enough sample size to definitively say Toglia hits for more power on the road than at Coors.
Toglia is a tough one to bank on next season as the Rockies constantly make head-scratching lineup decisions. So it’s really difficult to trust he’ll be a starter all year, and given his high strikeout rate, could easily get relegated to the bench after an extended slump.
After a mini breakout in 2023, Ryan O’Hearn was looking at the potential for a larger role in 2024. However, with Ryan Mountcastle at first base and a flurry of youngsters in the system, it was hard to predict how his playing time would shake out. O’Hearn did his part by proving his 2023 was no fluke, though the shape of his performance was quite different than expected.
This year, his power declined, as his HardHit% hit a career low, while his Barrel% plummeted. Instead, he ended up making significantly more contact, pushing down his SwStk% into single digits for the first time, which resulted in a vast improvement in strikeout rate. He also upped his walk rate, driving a career best OBP, save for his 2018 small sample debut.
This wasn’t a better O’Hearn, just a very different one than anyone expected. Since his BABIP also fell, he suffered a drop in batting average, so all the benefits of the much improved strikeout rate were missed by fantasy owners.
While O’Hearn has now been a perfectly acceptable hitter these past two seasons, the Orioles are loaded with young talent that need a starting lineup spot, making it unlucky he earns anywhere near the same playing time again next year.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Just wondering what you think of Tyler Soderstrom ? I’ve heard some pretty positive buzz around him lately. I just didn’t see him on your list.
He missed the list because it would have been reaaaaaaaally difficult to crack the top 40 in only 213 PAs!
Anyway, he’s a near clone of Shea Langeliers, but the biggest problem is he lost his catcher eligibility. Given that he’ll be a strong side platoon first baseman at best, I’m not particularly excited. He’s a home run/RBI contributor at most.