Ottoneu: Chad’s Keep or Cut Decisions at C

My colleague, Lucas Kelly, covered his keep or cut decisions at catcher yesterday and that was a good reminder that I should probably be diving deeper into my rosters to figure out my off-season plans.

Austin Wells, C
Salary: $3, $4
Average Salary: $4
2023 P/G: 3.76
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.71

Right off the bat, I am going to debate Lucas. Lucas raised some valid concerns about Wells, but I see a catcher who was highly-regarded as a prospect and seemed to find himself with regular playing time in 2023. He started slow but from June onward, he had a 117 wRC+ and there isn’t a lot under the hood to be scared of. The K-rate is solid, he draws walks, and his Statcast xStats look good. His points per game are deflated by a low PA/G, but a chunk of that is 23 PA in 19 games as a PH or defensive replacement. As a starter he was getting 4.07 PA/G, and that may well increase – through the second half, Wells was typically hitting 4th in the Yankees lineup. If he sticks in that spot (or close to it), that will be a nice improvement over his 2024 average lineup spot, which was about 5.8.

Among 32 catchers that had 300+ PA last year, Wells is 14th in wOBA, but 6th in xwOBA. Add in the growth in the second half and you have a guy who looks like a very productive catcher, certainly an easy option as part of a platoon for an Ottoneu team.

Keep or cut?

I think Wells is a pretty easy keep at anything $5 or less. Above that, it gets iffier, but I am more than happy to hold him in both the leagues where I have him.

Logan O’Hoppe, C
Salary: $8, $9, $10
Average Salary: $8
2023 P/G: 3.95
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.44

Boy is O’Hoppe a struggle for me, and this graph explains why:

He was so intriguing heading into the season, which is why I have him on three rosters. And he started off brilliantly. And then he cooled way off, and then he bounced back, and then he cooled way off. And then he was maybe bouncing back when the season ended. So what happened?

O’Hoppe had a couple of injury scares during the season, but he either didn’t suffer any lingering impact or he played through that lingering impact. And the latter could help explain his fluctuating performance. He also played 136 games and made 522 PA at a very taxing position. Only 6 games and 26 PA were at DH, so he was behind the plate a lot. Over the his career, he hasn’t really come close to those numbers – he played in 59 games last year, 109 the year before, then 104, 45 and 34, and before that he was in high school. Oh and there was is entirely missing year in there due to COVID.

So there are some very valid reasons to trust the upside and write off the slumps. The statcast numbers look good, as well. Even the ugliest number, the 29.7% K-rate, was much better for the first few months before it flew up in August and September. All of which means I like what I see, but do I $8-$10 like it?

Keep or Cut?

Ugh, I don’t want to decide right now. I think the answer is it will depend on the team and the league. I think that is right around his peak price – at $5-$6, I am happy to hold him. Where I am worried about finding catching, I might be open to those higher prices, but I’ll likely shop him and see what comes up.

Ryan Jeffers, C

Salary: $6
Average Salary: $4
2023 P/G: 4.21
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.46

This can be short and sweet, but there is a twist! Jeffers was great in 2023 and less great but still good for a catcher in 2024. Getting 4.21 P/G from a catcher is solid, and getting 4.52 P/G from your catcher (Jeffers’ P/G when you remove his 13 PA as a PH) is even better. At anything near his average salary, that is a pretty solid player to have.

Keep or Cut?

I might cut. Yeah, that doesn’t really follow from the above, but I roster Jeffers in a H2H league and in H2H (one catcher spot and important to max out games played), I am more inclined to try to get a C who plays more. Jeffers was 15th in C games played last year and 13th in C PA. That doesn’t include players like Gabriel Moreno and Willson Contreras, who are likely to move ahead of him in terms of playing time this year, as well. If I can get a C I expect to put up more total points, regardless of P/G, I will do it, and move on from Jeffers.

David Fry, C/1B/OF

Salary: $6
Average Salary: $4
2023 P/G: 4.14
Proj 2024 P/G: 4.46

Fry looks like he was just a touch worse than Jeffers last year (8 fewer points in the same number of games) but when you remove his PH appearances, he posted 5.29 P/G, which is pretty stellar. He is likely to move into a less-every-day role in 2025 (he really profiles best as a lefty-masher who can face RH at times, but is mostly small side of a platoon), which hurts, but what hurts more is that he is undergoing elbow surgery and is likely to miss most of 2025. His Depth Charts projection is for 40 games played. He’ll end up on the 60 day IL before the season even starts, so you can stash him, but that does add some risk. Further complicating his value is that when he comes back he likely won’t be able to play the field.

So you might get 40-ish games of terrific C production from Fry in 2025, then have to wait and see how the 2025-26 off-season progresses to determine if you are going to want to keep him for 2026. Even if he is ready to move back to the field in 2026, he could spend a month moving between DH, 1B, 3B, C, and OF, only starting vs. LHP, and take weeks to have any eligibility.

Keep or Cut?

Again, I have Fry in a H2H league and the potential for him to play regularly by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around is really intriguing. In other formats, the fact that you can likely IL him until he is back and then maximize his value thanks to the two catcher slots helps as well. I think at $6, I am going to try to trade him, and my preference is not to keep him, but we’ll see how the off-season plays out.