Ottoneu: Chad’s Keep or Cut Decisions at CI

Earlier this week, Lucas and Jake covered some tough decisions at CI (and helped me make some tough decisions, as well). Today, it is my turn.

Isaac Paredes, 1B/3B
Salary: Two at $10, two at $11
Average Salary: $10
2024 P/G: 4.68
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.25

Paredes is a tough one to evaluate because of the bizarre shape of his season and how tantalizing it is to lean on a simple explanation. When the Cubs acquired Paredes on July 28, they had to be ecstatic to pick up a 5.3 P/G 3B (MLB teams measure talent based on Ottoneu scoring, right?). Analysts were quick to note that Wrigley Field wouldn’t fit Paredes all that well. While the overall park factors for RH power (104 for Tropicana Field, 14th in MLB; 94 for Wrigley, 21st in MLB) weren’t drastically different, Paredes isn’t just any RH power hitter. This gif shows his 2023 and 2024 HR spray charts, from Baseball Savant, overlaid on both Tropicana Field and Wrigley Field.

 

The Trop is 315 feet down the line; Wrigley is 355. And Paredes makes his money peppering that short leftfield corner. Now, you can see from the gif that Wrigley will hurt Paredes, but there are still plenty of red dots that get out of both parks.

The problem is that this was both an obvious risk and Parades collapsed after the trade. He hit 3 HR in 212 PA after having 16 in 429 with Tampa. His HR/FB rate dropped in half. He struck out more. He walked less. And it is so easy, and so tempting, to say, hey, we knew Wrigley was a bad fit. This surprised no one. And this is just who Paredes is.

But it’s still just 212 PA and there are some reasons to be cautious about writing him off. Yes, his HR/FB dropped in half (almost) but that was from 10.7% to 5.7%. Another 1-2 HR and that HR/FB rate would be close enough that we wouldn’t think much of it.

Yes, his total HR output plummeted, but that had less to do with HR/FB rate than it did with his batted ball profile. Paredes is a career 45.1% fly ball hitter, was over 50% with Tampa in 2024, and hadn’t been below 45% since he left Detroit and leaned into his strength – crushing pulled fly balls. With Chicago, his FB rate dropped to 36.3%. Just getting back to his normal fly ball tendencies would have added 1-2 more HR, even without any gains in his HR/FB rate.

Paredes also increased his Statcast hard-hit rate after moving to Chicago. I don’t think this represents some major gain, but I do think it shows that his biggest issue was just lifting the ball less – an issue he dealt with successfully early in his career.

Paredes has 50 HR the last two seasons combined. According to Statcast, had he played every game in Tampa, he would have had 51. Had he played every game in Wrigley, he would have had 46. If you thought he was something like a 25 HR hitter as a Ray, the smart money is that he is something like a 22 HR hitter with the Cubs, with the same ability to draw a walk.

Keep or Cut?

I am a little torn, only because I think the market is down on Paredes and he might be a guy who goes for less at auction, but at the end of the day, I am still in on Paredes, and he looks like a $10 bat to me. With some inflation, that makes him a keep in FanGraphs Points leagues at this price.

Spencer Torkelson, 1B
Salary: $8, $8, $9, $11, $13
Average Salary: $10
2024 P/G: 3.80
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.51

Torkelson is another whose season trajectory impacts his valuation, but in a very different way. From elite prospect to bust, Torkelson bounced back in the second half, posting 4.9 P/G down the stretch, and changing the way fantasy managers looked at him. He was done, toast, finished, and now…well, he’s not.

But that doesn’t mean he’s a star, either. In a recent FanGraphs Points mock draft, he went for $4. His projection is below replacement level for a 1B. And yet…that talent is still there.

But at the end of the day, I just don’t see enough in that rebound to want to pay quite this much. He didn’t improve his K-rate (it went up as the season wore down). He didn’t have a higher xwOBA, or hit the ball harder. He did increase his sweet spot rate, which drove up his BABIP, but that isn’t something I want to place a big bet on.

Keep or Cut?

Begrudgingly cut. But if that $4 mock draft price proves typical, I am going to end up with Torkelson on a lot of rosters again.

And I might talk myself into keeping the sub-$10 Torks, even if I probably shouldn’t.

Kyle Manzardo, 1B
Salary: $6, $8
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/G: 2.97
Projected 2025 P/G: 5.08

I am ready to be called a homer and mocked for my different decisions on Manzardo, at similar prices to Torkelson, but I think the numbers back me up. Manzardo, like Tork, had a rough start, took some time in Triple-A and came back better. At first glance, his better wasn’t as good as Torkelson’s better (4.5 P/G in the second half) but Manzardo was getting just 3 PA per game in the second half. His wOBA was .373 (.341 for Torkelson) and his BABIP was an even .300 (.346 for Tork).

Manzardo didn’t make huge gains in his K-rate, but he did walk more and he swung and missed a lot less – the steady K-rate had more to do with being patient and looking for his pitch, which resulted in the increase in walks and better contact.

Manzardo also continued his torrid hitting through the post-season, even though that meant facing tougher pitching and more targeted pitching matchups.

The caution on Manzardo is still that PA/G stat. That isn’t a stat we often watch closely, but it is an important one. I’ve discussed it before, but if a hitter is putting up 1.5 P/PA (which is all-star level), but only getting 3 PA/G, they will show up at 4.5 P/G, which isn’t great (and is exactly what Manzardo did in the second half). But if they get a 4th PA, now they are at 6 P/G. I expect the Guardians to give Manzardo an everyday job in 2025, but don’t be surprised if he is both pinch hit for and used as a PH fairly often.

Keep or Cut?

Keep. When he is in the Guardians lineup, he’ll be in my lineup.