• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Mannn, I don’t know with Bradish. His last outing was excellent (7.7 IP/1 ER/12 Ks) after back-to-back Duds. That sort of volatility also explains the Angels offense. They’re just 22nd on the season in wOBA vR, but they have the 2nd-most 10+ R gms (9) and the 2nd-most <=3 R gms (41)!
• Some really good matchups for the streamers (Woodruff, Kay, Holmes, and Rocker) and that is no doubt the driving force behind their recos. Woodruff is coming off the IL and could be limited while the others have all looked pretty bad in the last month.
• Kelly had a nice QS before catching the upside wrath of LAA (5.3 IP/6 ER). WAS also dropped 7 ER on him but he ran off a 2.36 ERA in 5 starts before that. Super wide range of outcomes.
• If you want a glimmer of a hope on King, he is catching ATL at the best time as they sit dead last in wOBA vR over the last month. LAD comes visiting on the weekend, though, so this is still a rough 2-step.
• Speaking of LAD, they are getting some good numbers out of Lauer with a 3.22 ERA/1.03 WHIP over the last month. Unfortunately, it’s only netted 1 W despite going at least 5 IP in 4 of his L5.

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7:33	Jeff Zimmerman:

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Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.

The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers. Read the rest of this entry »

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

• Denzer Guzman (.588 OPS) started eight straight games at third base while batting 5th to 7th in the lineup.

• There has not been a lineup without Mike Trout (IL), but I suspect Nolan Schanuel and Vaughn Grissom will handle 1B/DH duties, and Jose Siri (.881 OPS) will be in center field. One wrinkle is that Wade Meckler usually sits against lefties, so he might get full-time at-bats. I could be wrong, so monitor any pending moves.[Editor’s note: Friday’s lineup posted after Jeff wrote this. Siri was in CF, Schanuel at 1B, with Christian Moore at DH with Grissom getting the day off. Meckler did, in fact get the start against a LHP.] Read the rest of this entry »

Fret not, dear reader. This is not that kind of article.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Comments in yellow added Fri AM

• Soriano is in for LAA, not Caden Dana. I’d consider him in between Sasaki & Cavalli.
• A devastating 5th inning v. CHW fueled by 3 BB brought Sasaki back down to Earth with 7 ER. But he allowed 7 ER in his previous 5 starts combined, posting a 2.16 ERA/0.86 WHIP/25% K-BB, so I’m inclined to give him a pass for a tough inning against a good young team and run him back out there without fear today.  
• Cavalli is a WHIP risk but has been running well of late (3.86 ERA/1.14 WHIP/19% K-BB in L5) and catches TBR at a good time with them sitting just 22nd vR in the L14 days.
• Meanwhile Suarez gets SEA an upswing as they’ve surge to 10th in the L14 days but he’s also back on track after a hiccup, including 13 Ks in 11.3 IP.
• Roupp is a big get for those who got him off the wire and he could be a big get in this start at a MIA team that doesn’t hit righties very well.
• Vásquez has gone full pumpkin and should be relegated back to streamer status. After a 16% K-BB in his first 8 starts – that included a 12% SwStr, nearly 2x his 2025 mark (7%) – he’d earned some trust, but he’s down to just 5% K-BB in his L6 with a 7% SwStr. And with that ringing endorsement… let’s start him at TEX!
• Tough to see Imai give back all the good of his 4-start run with one of the worst starts of the years: 5 runs on 4 H and 1 BB in just two outs of work. And yet I think we saddle back up here against the J-Ram-less Guardians.
• SEA is going to run Miller/Castillo but I’m not sure of the IP expectation. Miller is coming off an excellent 8-IP gem at WAS (7 Ks, 0 BB) while 3 UER helped Castillo survive his trip to DC.

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Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve been doing rookie check-ins for hitters and pitchers lately. The most recent rookie hitter check-ins are found here, with an examination of a few other starting pitchers. Rookies have been making an impact on our fantasy squads, and many are deserving of more attention. In this week’s rookie check-in, we’re shifting back to starting pitchers. One starting pitcher has some name value to jump on. Meanwhile, a few others might be undervalued in deeper leagues. We’ll examine these four rookie starting pitchers to figure out whether to buy, sell, or hold them in keeper and dynasty formats.

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Moving on from looking at players who potentially might run out of luck in the previous piece, we now look to the other end of the chart, and some hitters who may be due some good fortune.

While identifying the hitters I thought had potential regression was easy, with plenty of highly-rostered bats in the top region of the chart with interesting data as to why they were outperforming their xwOBA in terms of BABIP, finding who to highlight at the other end was more challenging.

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