Don’t run on Mookie:

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Relief pitchers are wild, untamable beasts, and the fantasy saves and holds markets are incredibly volatile from season to season. In competitive, standard 5×5 roto formats, we mostly pay up for the ace closers because they are rare commodities. During the season, we chase relievers moving up their team’s respective bullpen hierarchies in hopes of landing a team’s next closer for pennies on the dollar. In leagues that include holds, the landscape is even more volatile and unpredictable. Skills decline, bullpen roles change, and relievers’ respective teams get better or worse from season to season. Since 2024, only 12 relievers have averaged 20 or more holds per season. One of them (Griffin Jax) is now a starter, and another (Bryan Abreu) has become the biggest liability at the position.  The reliever with 30+ holds in a season is a unicorn. Former Giants and current Blue Jays submariner Tyler Rogers is the only reliever with 30 or more in each of the last three seasons. In 2025, six relievers earned 30 or more. In 2024, there were seven, and in 2023 only three, including Rogers. Though in holds leagues, holds are just part of the fantasy package — it’s only one category. Similar to how some managers approach OBP instead of AVG leagues, we often tend to overvalue the category that shifts from the standard. To provide value, relievers must also help in strikeouts and the ratio categories.

In this article, I’ll review the biggest risers and fallers from last season to this season. The goal is twofold: to identify relievers who might be fantasy-useful (for standard formats and holds leagues) and to weed out those whose skills, roles and fantasy viability are declining. Mike Podhorzer wrote a fantastic piece on non-closing relievers, and you’ll see some of the same pitchers highlighted in his data tables.

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Tyler O’Neill homers on Opening Day. Mike Trout homers on his birthday. And new dads homer what feels like all the time. 

So in honor of Father’s Day, I’ll comb through the Fangraphs Transaction Tracker to find a few newly minted pops, check in on how their season has been going, and offer a bit of not at all fatherly advice. 

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In shallower formats, it’s true that non-closing relievers typically hold minimal fantasy value, assuming your league isn’t counting Holds. But in deeper leagues, especially mono formats, I would prefer to start a middle reliever over a slew of starting pitchers in order to preserve my ratios. Every day relievers are being recalled from the minors so it’s very difficult to keep up with the entire landscape. Since they usually fly under the radar, you should be able to catch newly dominant ones early when no one else is even looking.

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This hurts just watching it:

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Joe Ryan out sick

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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Ignore Kohl’s in the distance. That’s out of our price range.

Part 1 of this series earlier in the month laid out some groundwork and provided a few basic examples of the benefits of striving to value fantasy assets more rigorously. Part 2 illustrated some of the differences in player value across different types of league settings, and taught you how to construct that analysis for yourself. In this article, I aim to build on those concepts to show you how to hunt for bargains in the draft.

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Having now identified the three hitters who may have suffered the most bad luck so far this season, while still holding real fantasy value and possibly being available in your leagues, it’s time to dig into why.

Through the process of elimination in the In Search of Some Luck piece, we were able to land on three names, which we will break down in this piece. Trent Grisham, JJ Bleday, and Max Muncy.

These three names provide a wide scope of ways a hitter can underperform their expected output, giving not only three potential additions to your fantasy roster, but a wider methodology to consider when looking at why some hitters don’t perform to their expected offensive output.

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Here is today’s chat transcript:

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