To recap where we last left off in our trip down the reliever rabbit hole: long-term trends on overall reliever dollar value do not seem to be changing that much over time, based both on the number of relievers registering valuable seasons and the proportion of “one-hit wonders” in the modern era.
I have a fairly small portfolio of fantasy teams – prior to joining the staff here at RotoGraphs I had pared down over the years because managing daily teams on different platforms is a bit of a slog. Going into next year, I might explore joining some leagues with weekly adds. But in any case, I’d rate my season as successful overall.
Like a moth drawn to a flame, I find myself returning to the strange comforts of relief pitcher analysis.
In last week’s article, I looked at whether or not there seems to be big-picture movements in relief pitcher value and found that generally, despite the overall vibe shift and changing usage patterns, the proportion of good reliever seasons and distribution among the players accruing these seasons is not materially changing.
But – as one commenter noted – what about SVHD (saves + holds) leagues? It’s a fair question and one to which I am personally sympathetic. Despite all of my digital hullabaloo about standard 5×5 roto settings, I don’t actually play in a league where holds are not counted. As more and more home leagues shift away from saves dominance it might be worth a closer look.
Back again to the bailiwick which is perhaps my least compelling at cocktail parties (and trust me, this is saying something): relief pitcher fantasy performance.
A while ago, I looked at whether or not drafting relievers was worthwhile and found, ultimately, that yes, it is worth devoting targeted draft capital to relief pitchers. But one of the outstanding questions from that analysis was whether the composition of reliever performance is changing over time, so that’s what I decided to look into next.
Earlier in the week I covered some of the Dynasty Model’s biggest risers. Here, I’ll move on to presenting some of the model’s spicier takes. As if I were serving up wings in Hot Ones, I’ll go in order from least to most spicy. Hopefully by the end you aren’t left in tears like many of the guests on that show.
With the number 1 pick in the 2026 fantasy draft, the Phlavertown Phantatics select…
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Jahmyr Gibbs!
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Wait, sorry, last week I said I was messing with the draft but that’s not what I meant. You could be forgiven though, for having your head turned by the novelty of the recently commenced NFL season. If you’re sitting here reading this though I assume you are a dynasty/keeper sicko and if that’s the case you’re in luck because I’ve got the September 2026 RotoGraphs Dynasty Rankings hot off the press.
After a detour writing a couple articles with cheeky little bits and also a much more extended effort to develop a model for dynasty rankings, I wanted to return more explicitly to my bread and butter: the Asset Valuation series. After my first teaser article, my next three in this series showed how scoring settings can affect player value, and how you can exploit knowledge about these dynamics for your gain.
Those analyses, though, held one thing constant: the value of draft picks. To get those points across, I assumed a standard 12-team redraft setting, and flexed the value of players based on scoring scheme. Here, I’m doing the opposite: I’m messing with the timeline draft pool while keeping scoring scheme constant to show you how the value of a draft pick itself can change based on league size, keepers, and whether you use projections or actual realized dollar value.
I’m pleased with how the first release of the RotoGraphs Dynasty Model went, both in the results it produced as well as the reception here on the site. I’m excited for its future use as well, because the methodology is flexible meaning there is no reason it couldn’t be expanded to reflect a deeper league or a different settings scheme. For now, though, I’m satisfied with the 12-team, 5×5 proof of concept that this run provided.
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
After extending my stay at Prospect Station, I have arrived at the next leg of my travels: Aging Curve Junction. I acknowledge that this metaphor is somewhat tortured, but I do think it gestures toward something genuine. A junction is a place where two paths of travel meet, and a dynasty ranking system requires merging the hypothetical of prospects and the real-life production of current big-leaguers over a period of future years. For our purposes, the bridge between those links is the aging curve.