Intro

I left you earlier in the week with a promise to dive deeper into the bargain leaderboards created by comparing projected dollar value against the expected dollar value for a pick in that draft slot. Please accept my sincerest apologies if, left without more context, you found yourself mired in the digital equivalent of a TJ Maxx aisle, paralyzed with indecision while selecting which 10 articles of clothing you want to bring to the dressing rooms.

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Ignore Kohl’s in the distance. That’s out of our price range.

Part 1 of this series earlier in the month laid out some groundwork and provided a few basic examples of the benefits of striving to value fantasy assets more rigorously. Part 2 illustrated some of the differences in player value across different types of league settings, and taught you how to construct that analysis for yourself. In this article, I aim to build on those concepts to show you how to hunt for bargains in the draft.

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Fret not, dear reader. This is not that kind of article.

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Have you ever looked at art that changed based on the direction you’re viewing it? Or maybe stared at that famous drawing of a duck for 10 minutes, only to have it morph permanently into a rabbit? The notion that one thing can be two or more does a number on our brains sometimes.

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Our esteemed RotoGraphs editor recently passed along a question to the team that came to him from a reader:

“If a player runs a high k-rate upon debut for a significant amount of time, how likely is it that they’ll ever be a viable fantasy hitter?”

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“You don’t know how to play first base value assets, Scott?”

“That’s right.”

“It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.”

“It’s incredibly hard.”

“Hey, anything worth doing is. And we’re going to teach you.”

Introduction:

By now, 25 years hence, Moneyball concepts are likely old hat to your average RotoGraphs reader. With the suite of technical tools available to the modern fan, it can be easy to forget just how powerful those insights can still be. Read the rest of this entry »