Is Drafting Relievers Worth It?
“I think you know my opinion on RP.”
- Trusted leaguemate and fellow fantasy writer Sam Lutz
Author Archive
Humanity vs. the Robots: Round 2
Earlier this week when I detailed what is sure to be the most important human versus machine debate our society will face, I found that the projection robots very narrowly edge the ADP market when it comes to predicting fantasy performance. That analysis, though, was based on a half-season of 2026 data with a hint that there might be more to come.
This is that follow-up. My goal here was to conduct a broader analysis on more data to see if the conclusions held up, and it turns out that they did.
Humanity vs. the Robots: Who Will Win?
While writing my recent articles about how to use projections to find undervalued players based on market ADPs, I was struck by a follow-up question: when ranking players, which is better – ADP, or projections?
As we strive to value players more objectively, probing this question is valuable. It will help calibrate how much weight to assign consensus rankings versus your favorite projection systems. If we’re lucky, it might point us to some things that the market or the robots identify particularly well relative to the other. When we can marry the strengths of objective, data-driven processes with the advantages of human behavior and judgment, we are better off for it.
And this is a meaty question; theoretically each method has its strengths. Average draft position is a ranking derived from the wisdom of thousands of fantasy owners. It should be valuable in this respect. But we fantasy owners are subject to our own pernicious little human biases when it comes to player evaluation. Are we better off just letting the robots do the work for us?
Asset Valuation Part 3: Finding Bargains Cont’d.
Intro
I left you earlier in the week with a promise to dive deeper into the bargain leaderboards created by comparing projected dollar value against the expected dollar value for a pick in that draft slot. Please accept my sincerest apologies if, left without more context, you found yourself mired in the digital equivalent of a TJ Maxx aisle, paralyzed with indecision while selecting which 10 articles of clothing you want to bring to the dressing rooms.
Asset Valuation Part 3: Finding Bargains
Ignore Kohl’s in the distance. That’s out of our price range.
Part 1 of this series earlier in the month laid out some groundwork and provided a few basic examples of the benefits of striving to value fantasy assets more rigorously. Part 2 illustrated some of the differences in player value across different types of league settings, and taught you how to construct that analysis for yourself. In this article, I aim to build on those concepts to show you how to hunt for bargains in the draft.
Streaky Freakies vs. Steady Eddies: Does Volatility Matter?
Fret not, dear reader. This is not that kind of article.
Asset Valuation Part 2: League Context
Have you ever looked at art that changed based on the direction you’re viewing it? Or maybe stared at that famous drawing of a duck for 10 minutes, only to have it morph permanently into a rabbit? The notion that one thing can be two or more does a number on our brains sometimes.
Debut K-Rate and Fantasy Viability: A Study
Our esteemed RotoGraphs editor recently passed along a question to the team that came to him from a reader:
“If a player runs a high k-rate upon debut for a significant amount of time, how likely is it that they’ll ever be a viable fantasy hitter?”
Asset Valuation: Part 1
“You don’t know how to play first base value assets, Scott?”
“That’s right.”
“It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.”
“It’s incredibly hard.”
“Hey, anything worth doing is. And we’re going to teach you.”
Introduction:
By now, 25 years hence, Moneyball concepts are likely old hat to your average RotoGraphs reader. With the suite of technical tools available to the modern fan, it can be easy to forget just how powerful those insights can still be. Read the rest of this entry »