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Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Overall

• Lance Brozdowski discussing eight breakouts. Twenty-four minutes well spent.

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10/1/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
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NFBC POSTSEASON CONTEST

Closer Talk

• Joe’s Win
• Who Carried Joe?
• Key Tenets for Success
• Filling Out a Lineup

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Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

With the regular season over, it’s time to find out how the hitters who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain performed. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits (detailed reasoning on why this occurs), they continue to underperform their next season’s projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article) for this past season’s list. Read the rest of this entry »

I have a fairly small portfolio of fantasy teams – prior to joining the staff here at RotoGraphs I had pared down over the years because managing daily teams on different platforms is a bit of a slog. Going into next year, I might explore joining some leagues with weekly adds. But in any case, I’d rate my season as successful overall.

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In my first article for Rotographs, I dug into a premise that always puzzles me at the beginning of the season. What do you do with the seemingly low end starting pitchers who are off to hot starts? 

I noted how sometimes, they can stay hot for the full season, citing Rick Porcello’s Cy Young season in 2016 and more recently, 2025 standouts like Kris Bubic, Shane Smith, and Tyler Mahle. 

I set the parameters for this type of pitcher around a variety of the statistics that fantasy managers look to when determining the staying power of a starting pitcher. 

“We want to find pitchers who are suppressing runs and locating, but who may be considered unsustainable due to underlying metrics, specifically around the GIF making Stuff+ and K-BB%. To capture this, we’ll focus on pitchers with Stuff+ below 100, a Location+ above 100, a K-BB% of 17% or less, and an ERA below 3.00.”

Here was that list as of May 1 this season. 

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Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Recently, I asked for help to clarify each team’s initial closer. Now, it’s time to get to the data (2025 report). Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve written a couple of late-season articles on overperformers and underperformers based on projected versus earned value. As someone who spends plenty of time examining pitchers, my fantasy teams admittedly struggled in pitching points. My team’s pitching ratios exploded due to blowup outings from Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, and others.

On the hitter side, I rostered plenty of veteran players that might be seen as boring ones. Common hitters on my roster included Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Bryan Reynolds, and Seiya Suzuki. In one 12-team league, I started with Ronald Acuña Jr., Garrett Crochet, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Geraldo Perdomo.

On another 12-teamer, I went with Shohei Ohtani, Treat Turner, Ketel Marte, William Contreras, Hunter Brown, Suzuki, Carlos Estevez, Corey Seager, Alex Bregman, and Spencer Strider with my first 10 picks. Unsurprisingly, that team struggled across the board.

I’ll walk through a few lessons from my draft and in-season strategy from the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

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“No one cares about your fantasy leagues,” but: I am your 2026 Tout Wars 15-Team Mixed On-Base Percentage (OBP) Auction champion. I’m not sure how helpful draft and/or league recaps are for most people, but I figure debriefing a victory is as good a use of this time as any.

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Midseason, I charted the rookie crop of pitchers using a z-composite score. As the first full season for many of these pitchers wraps up, let’s come back to them to see how they fared and what this means for fantasy value moving into 2027.

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Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

With the dust finally settling, I ended the 2026 season with $3K in profit over 12 leagues. Here are my league results and some of overarching thoughts on the season and some leagues. Read the rest of this entry »