Risers and Fallers: Relief Pitchers

Relief pitchers are wild, untamable beasts, and the fantasy saves and holds markets are incredibly volatile from season to season. In competitive, standard 5×5 roto formats, we mostly pay up for the ace closers because they are rare commodities. During the season, we chase relievers moving up their team’s respective bullpen hierarchies in hopes of landing a team’s next closer for pennies on the dollar. In leagues that include holds, the landscape is even more volatile and unpredictable. Skills decline, bullpen roles change, and relievers’ respective teams get better or worse from season to season. Since 2024, only 12 relievers have averaged 20 or more holds per season. One of them (Griffin Jax) is now a starter, and another (Bryan Abreu) has become the biggest liability at the position.  The reliever with 30+ holds in a season is a unicorn. Former Giants and current Blue Jays submariner Tyler Rogers is the only reliever with 30 or more in each of the last three seasons. In 2025, six relievers earned 30 or more. In 2024, there were seven, and in 2023 only three, including Rogers. Though in holds leagues, holds are just part of the fantasy package — it’s only one category. Similar to how some managers approach OBP instead of AVG leagues, we often tend to overvalue the category that shifts from the standard. To provide value, relievers must also help in strikeouts and the ratio categories.

In this article, I’ll review the biggest risers and fallers from last season to this season. The goal is twofold: to identify relievers who might be fantasy-useful (for standard formats and holds leagues) and to weed out those whose skills, roles and fantasy viability are declining. Mike Podhorzer wrote a fantastic piece on non-closing relievers, and you’ll see some of the same pitchers highlighted in his data tables.

Let’s start with the basics: strikeout rate and walk rate. Below are the relievers (min: 20 IP in 2026) with the biggest gain in K% from last season.

Kicking off with the closers, we have Jhoan Duran, Mason Miller, Pete Fairbanks, Tanner Scott, and breakout closers Louis Varland and Jacob Latz. Miller’s insane strikeout rate is in rarefied air, close to Aroldis Chapman’s 52.5% from 2014. The only other two relievers with a rate over 50% in 40+ innings are Craig Kimbrel (2012) and Edwin Díaz (2022), both of who produced an epic rate of 50.2%. Duran saw a decrease in K% from the low-30s (2022-2023) to the low 20s (2024-2025). His leap from 28.5% over the last two seasons to 40.4% this season has helped support his value at a high ADP range (35-45 overall). Despite similar pitch velocity, his swinging-strike rate is up four ticks from last season (19.5%) and his contact rate is down substantially, from 71% to 63%. Moreover, Duran’s already impressive walk rate (6.6% over the last two seasons) is down to 5.1%. Fairbanks has Raynaud’s syndrome, which restricts blood flow and causes his fingers to go numb, which is why staying in Florida (shifting from the Rays to the Marlins) made sense for him. Earlier in his career, Fairbanks typically rocked a strikeout rate over 30%. The last two seasons, it’s hovered around 24%, and this season, it’s back to his previous range, currently at 32.3%. Fairbanks has work to do to improve a brutal 6.14 ERA, though peripherals portend some misfortune (4.16 xFIP, 3.27 xERA) and most of the run damage came in three specific road starts against the best offenses (Dodgers, Yankees, Braves).

Erik Miller is the best lefty in the San Francisco Giants bullpen. Now in his third season, the 28-year-old missed almost half of last season with elbow inflammation and spent a short stint on the IL this season with a lower back strain. The sinker/slider maestro’s low-30s strikeout rate range matches his rookie year rate and is a fair estimation of rest-of-season expectations. Despite huge control issues (15% career walk rate), Miller is typically deployed in the latter innings of ballgames and sure seems to have that closer’s mentality. Miller is on pace for 20+ holds, though some of those might come in a different uniform since he’s a strong trade chip for contending teams before this year’s trade deadline.

Ryan Rolison has virtually no fantasy value because of how he is deployed, but he is a guy worth mentioning because of his rags-to-riches story. Rolison toiled in the Colorado Rockies minor league system for several years and finally made his debut in 2025. As one might expect for a reliever making half of his appearances in Denver’s high elevation, Rolison’s rookie season didn’t go well — 42.1 IP, 7.02 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 13% K, 10.4% BB. The Cubs snagged him off waivers in January, he was promoted in mid-April and has pitched quite well — 27:12 K:BB, 1.95 ERA and a 5-1 record in 27.2 innings. Rolison has been utilized in multiple-inning situations, as an opener on almost a dozen occasions, and against some of the tougher lefty hitters. His versatility helps the Cubs, but keeps him out of a traditional setup role where one scores hold opportunities (just one hold this season). The other two southpaws in the bullpen are age 35 (Hoby Milner) and 39 (Caleb Thielbar) and neither are having as good of a season as Rolison is. Milner’s strikeout rate is down to 12.3% and Thielbar has a 4.95 ERA with similar peripherals.

Steven Cruz and Daniel Lynch IV are the two big strikeout rate gainers from the Royals. Cruz’s ratios are bad (6.55 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) and he typically works in lower leverage situations, so he offers no value. Lynch struggled as a starter in the beginning of his career (ERA > 5.00 in 51 starts from 2021-2023), and is now flourishing in high leverage chances as a reliever. Lynch’s velocity remains on par with last year’s averages, though he increased his swinging-strike rate (from 8.6% to 14%), reduced his HR/9 (1.06 to 0.56) and owns sparkling ratios (2.53, 0.97). He and Matt Strahm are the only two southpaws in the bullpen and are both tied for the team lead in holds with nine apiece. Lynch entered Friday’s contest against the Cardinals with a 5-2 lead and pitched a clean seventh inning, before Strahm got trampled for three runs in the eighth to blow Lynch’s hold. Rocking a 30% strikeout rate and being one of the most dependable lefty relievers while on the Phillies, Strahm has regressed mightily in Kansas City and is one of the biggest strikeout rate (and overall) fallers.

An interesting list of fallers and a good reminder for fantasy managers that fantasy value among relievers can shift quickly from season to season. We’re only sorted by strikeout rate with the group above, but you’ll notice more warts as we dig into each profile:

• Keegan Akin – Was the Orioles closer for the last two months of 2025. Missed the first month of 2026. Has a 6.35 ERA and 5.43 xFIP.
• Phil Maton – Was lights-out in 2025, spent 20 days on IL earlier this season, has a 5.92 ERA and 11.9% walk rate (up 2%).
• Kyle Finnegan – Has more walks (24) than strikeouts (22). Has a lucky ERA of 2.02 in relation to his ratio indicators (5.60 xFIP, 5.74 SIERA).
• Bryan Abreu – Second in holds from ’23-’25 (87). Couldn’t hold down closer’s job for Josh Hader earlier this season — massive velo dip (from 97 to 94) and walk rate doubled (10% to 20%).
• Jeremiah Estrada – Remains elite despite the K% dip. He was the only RP with 100+ strikeouts and 30+ holds last season (Abreu in 2024 was the first to do it since 2018).
• Matt Svanson – Preseason closer candidate who started off horribly (15 ER in 8.2 IP). Has a 10:3 K:BB and 0 ER in his last eight appearances. Working back into high leverage.
• Victor Vodnik – Remember the rule: never draft a Rockies reliever. Not even in a fire.

Let’s wrap it up with an homage to the ultimate Holds Factory, the Cleveland Guardians. Their bullpen leads the Majors in holds (66 through 79 games) by a wide margin — 13 more than the next best (Twins and Athletics: 53) and almost triple the Cubs bullpen (23). They ranked second in holds last season (111), first in 2024 (116), and tied for fourth in 2023 (100). The cast of setup studs may change, but the dominance remains. Cade Smith graduated to closer after Clase was suspended, bypassing Hunter Gaddis. Despite slight dips in Gaddis’ metrics, he remains one of the best setup men in the game, and has the second-most holds in the Majors (80) since 2024. Gaddis is tied for 11th in holds this season. Lefty Erik Sabrowski ranks among the top five (17) and rocks a ridiculous 46.5% strikeout rate, yet equally ludicrous walk rate (16.3%). Projecting team holds isn’t a game worth playing, but manager Stephen Vogt deploys his relief crew in a more predictable manner, their mediocre offense leads to fewer blowouts than league average, and the division and home park help as well. Should something happen to Smith, Gaddis is a candidate to step up for ninth-inning duties.

Relievers will make us tear our hair out. As long as we’re bracing for the pain, we can optimally manage it. It’s difficult to keep track of every player in the league, and the majority of us are least interested in day-to-day reliever mayhem. When we’re not dialed into every box score all the time, it’s easy to rely on our recent memories of the closers of yesteryear like Finnegan, whose roles and skills have declined. We must remain plugged in and proactive to keep up with these ever-moving bullpen hierarchies and budding fantasy values.