Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – June 22, 2026

Here is today’s chat transcript:

11:41

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! You can also join the Sleeper and the Bust discord! https://discord.gg/ar7XUV9T

12:00

bdubs: 1. Ive run out of patience for Salvy; who to add ROS from WW among: Alvarez, C Jensen, Kirk, Moreno.
2. Antonacci or Hoerner?

12:00

Justin Mason:

  1. Jensen
  2. Hoerner
12:01

Jon Tayler: For good lefty platoon bats like Carpenter and Canzone in a daily league, are they worth holding through slumps/bad schedule stretches or is it better to stream them?

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12:01

Justin Mason: depends on the depth of league, but 12 teams or shallower, they are better for streaming.

12:01

Jon Tayler: Currently benching and holding Hoerner in an OBP league but would you cut him for any of Stott, JP Crawford or Nick Gonzales?

12:01

Justin Mason: I would not

12:01

InsertWittyNameHere: Tolle only got 2 K’s last time out, can he survive throwing that heater as much as he does?  The league can figure that out quick.  In a QS league, when Eury comes back, am I dropping Tolle or Ben Brown?

12:02

Justin Mason: I think Tolle will be fine. Prefer him over Brown

12:02

Jon Tayler: Swapped Gelof for Adell in an OBP roto league with 5 OF and MI/CI/IF spots … how’d I do? (Rest of the OF for context is Yordan, Suzuki, Carpenter, McCarthy, Butler with Grisham and Oneil on the IL)

12:04

Justin Mason: I dont think Gelof’s profile has changed much. He will have hot streaks and cold one because he just doesnt make consistent contact. The only real difference we are seeing with him right now is that his home park is just so good and he can take advantage of it. I prefer Adell but the home park make Gelof someone you will want to stream when they are in Sac

12:04

PokeyReese’04: 12 man dynasty; what would you do with Dylan Crews and Jackson Holiday? Hold and just bench for now? Try to trade away for something?

12:04

Justin Mason: I am holding

12:04

InsertWittyNameHere: In a 3 OF OBP, I have both Carrigg and Marsee as my rabbit (supposed to be at least).  I also have the Ghost of Kyle Tucker and Zombie Brandon Marsh. I’m thinking Tucker, Marsh, Carrigg since the latter is at Coors for the foreseeable future, but debating long term if I need to let one of the rabbits go or shave off Marsh?

12:06

Justin Mason: I am fine cutting a rabbit here if you are ok on speed.

12:06

Ragbrai: ROS Manaea or Gasser?

12:06

Justin Mason: Manaea, but its close. I just dont know how safe Gasser’s job is.

12:06

Jon Tayler: How long do we think the leash is for Riley O’Brien right now? Is there anyone in the Cardinals’ bullpen worth watching?

12:07

Justin Mason: I think its fairly safe for now. I would assume that if he does lose the job at some point, Jojo Romero is next up.

12:07

InsertWittyNameHere: In an OBP, Perdomo and Wetherholt are both hot right now, is this a matchups play or do you like one or the other?

12:07

Justin Mason: I would play matchups.

12:07

Joel Churnin: 14 team h2h points league.  Redraft. Need to take a flyer on some offense to help my struggling lineup. How would you rank these various guys rest of season.

12:07

Joel Churnin: Vaughn Grissom, Jo Adell, Jason Dominguez, Jake McCarthy, Matt Shaw, I Vargas , Okamoto, Adames

12:08

Justin Mason: Okamoto, Adell, McCarthy, Adames, Dominguez, Vargas, Grissom, Shaw

12:08

sactown 2: Are you starting M. King this week vs ATL and LAD?

12:08

Justin Mason: yes and then praying

12:08

Kyle O’Brien: Any faith in Perkins as a SP in a dynasty league? He is a bit wild and the home park is rough, but seems like the underlying metrics are pretty good

12:09

Justin Mason: I dont trust any starter in that park, but in a couple of years they will be in Vegas in a climate controlled park. The question is do you want to wait until then. I do love the underlying skills though

12:09

Thomas Martin: 12 team h2h points. I’m bit weak at OF (4 OF league). I’m deep at CI. Flip Mead for Nootbaar ROS?

12:09

Justin Mason: yeah, I am ok with that.

12:10

wtholt27: Is Walker Buehler back? Good run for him

12:13

Justin Mason: He is definitely not back to who he was presurgery. I think that guy is gone, but he could be the temu version of that. He doesn’t have great stuff, but he still knows how to pitch. if you look over his last four starts, he’s gotten extremely lucky in the strand rate, but he has also done a good job of preventing walks and attacking the zone. I think he is a team streamer until things go poorly.

12:13

InsertWittyNameHere: Follow up to the Marsh question, are you buying his “breakout”?  Hitting cleanup in front of Trea (a whole other question about him.  Remember when the crowd cheered him the other year and he ended up on a tear?), Schwarber and Harper sounds enticing.

12:14

Justin Mason: There isnt much in the profle that tells me he is different than he was last year outside of a higher BABIP. Now, I have always been a Marsh fan so I think he can still be pretty good, but he wont be THIS good.

12:14

jt1229: Hi, rank the following 2B as backups to my current starter Bazzana: M. McLain, M. Semien, B. Stott & C. Moore … are any of these even worth a roster spot

12:15

Justin Mason: I think the order you have them in is right. McLain is worth a roster spot in most leagues.

12:15

TJ: Zack Gelof has been on fire in June. Is this simply BABIP fueled or is there something more? Is he a must roster in  a shallow 10T?

12:16

Justin Mason: It’s home park help. 8/11 homers at home. Hitting .322 at home vs .241 on the road.

12:17

Justin Mason: He is getting a ton of babip luck there as well with a .381 BABIP at home vs .330 on the road. I would stream him at home

12:17

The K-Man: Christian Walker’s OPS is slip sliding into the abyss at age 35, xSLG down to .413. In 12-team H2H with multiple better 1B on roster, and no team wanting to trade for, crazy to cut loose for streaming pitcher desperation? Feels like his ride might be over.

12:17

Justin Mason: I am ok cutting and moving on.

12:18

beyou02215: Quick thoughts on Alec Burleson?   Are you a believer?  He seems to be turning into a legit slugger right before our eyes.  His BS page is all red!

12:20

Justin Mason: He has sacrificed a bit of his approach and contact for power and it is working. I think there is a chance that his average and OBP suffers a little for it down the road, but I wouldnt think a ton since he is still league average in zone contact. I love this breakout and wish I had bought in more this year.

12:20

Salty: Would you consider Perdomo or Adames an upgrade over a guy like Stott?  I can’t figure out what is going on in SF – seems that clubhouse is a mess, maybe a change of scenery would do Adames good.

12:21

Justin Mason: I would consider them upgrades over Stott, but I dont think there is any chance the Giants can trade Adames without eating a large chunk of that contract so he will be stuck in SF for the foreseeable future.

12:21

Jon Tayler: What’s a fair return for Nolan McLean in a keeper roto league? Thinking about offering him to our league’s Mets fan and was wondering if Colson Montgomery or Josh Naylor is a reasonable ask

12:22

Justin Mason: I think Naylor is a fair ask. I would want more than Montgomery considering his average issues.

12:22

Salty: Have you ever had to wave off one of the FG editors regarding one of your pieces like Devers pulled yesterday?

12:24

Justin Mason: To my editors credit, I have never had to wave them off and they have never tried to replace me mid article. I am definitely grateful for that as I do write in a very different style than many of my RotoGraphs colleagues.

12:24

Justin Mason: Point awarded

12:24

druu: Oof. Didn’t mean to send. Rotating door at 3B since Murakami has been hurt. I have Colt Keith, Kyle Karros, and Tommy Edman. Drop anyone for Caleb Durbin and his recent hot streak? Positional flexibility at 2B is a factor (Edman, Keith) because I’m running a mix of Semien, Nuñez, and Volpe at 2B and SS. Or do I drop Semien or Volpe for Durbin?

12:24

Justin Mason: I would drop Volpe if its not a dynasty league. Semien if it is.

12:25

jt1229: 14 tm 6×6 h2h, which side do you like more of a M. Meyer for M. Muncy trade where categories are OBP, HR, TB, RBI, SB, R, ERA, WHIP, K, W, QS, SV and my current 3B is Riley while the rest of my staff is Skenes, Eovaldi, Bradish, Cole with Greene and E. PErez on the IL and possibly returning soon.

12:26

Justin Mason: I prefer Muncy there, but I can understand making that trade if you want to add to the pitching. I dont think you need to though

12:27

Richard: Fastball Fredie has to be hurt…doesn’t he ?

12:28

Justin Mason: He just got BABIP’d to death last start. I dont see much in the numbers that points to injury. Maybe he is dealing with something, but there isnt much standing out. Ill sit down and watch his start this week and maybe ill see something mechanically.

12:28

Philip Christy: In my SOLDs league, I have to dump 2 of Helsley, Sabrowski, Bender, Jacob Webb, and Jeff Hoffman by this afternoon. What do you think?

12:28

Justin Mason: Hoffman and Bender

12:29

michaelstoll5: In a 6×6 (standard + OPS) would you prefer Soderstrom or Jazz ros?

12:29

Justin Mason: Jazz

12:29

Brablc: Who gets PT reduction with Elly back – McLain or Arroyo or other?

12:29

Justin Mason: Arroyo probably does

12:29

InsertWittyNameHere: Crews seems to have figured something out.  In OBP, cut either Marsh, Carrigg or Marsee?

12:30

Justin Mason: I think its Carrigg for me. I just dont see a ton in the profile

12:30

Kyle O’Brien: I traded for Jordan Walker about a month ago and I am constantly paranoid he will turn back into a pumpkin. He is in a bit of a cold spell with a significant number of strikeouts. Can I relax and enjoy this new version or do you have concerns over big regression to his career averages?

12:32

Justin Mason: I do not think he is as good as he has been for this season, but I also think the raising in launch angle has helped a good amount even if it doesn’t look drastic. That being said, I still think he is a sell high guy because I do not know how long he can keep up this type of average with an 81% Z-contact. Even if he does regress tho, there should be some goodness with power, so you dont have to sell if you dont want to.

12:32

sactown 2: Are you buying J.Bell over Marsh or J. Duran?

12:32

Justin Mason: No

12:32

jamield: 12 team H2H pts, weighted heavily towards IP and Ks.  Is it time to bail on Sheehan?  For Trevor Rogers or Bubba Chandler?

12:33

Justin Mason: I need the gif from the office where Pam says “its the same picture”

12:33

mrfister: Woah, no more handle field?  How am I supposed to Matt Damon the MATT. DAMON. ?

12:34

Justin Mason: We need to pour one out for MATT DAMON.

12:34

Justin Mason: Point awarded

12:34

NicklePickers: Hi! Could you rank these questionable prospects for my AL Only OBP league? Jacob Gonzalez (CWS), Christian Moore, Kahlil Watson.

12:34

Justin Mason: that is the correct order

12:34

NicklePickers: Bednar or Varland for saves ROS?

12:34

Justin Mason: Bednar

12:34

cswanso6: Who closes for STL if they replace O Brien?

12:34

Justin Mason: Jojo Romero

12:34

jt1229: 14 tm 6×6 h2h keeper where you give up draft pick of same rd player was chosen, my team is in lack of pop, have been running Perdomo at SS all season which has been a problem, we are ranked # 1 OBP so can take a hit with a new SS on that, Gunnar is available, 2nd rd pick, not a keeper on my team, is one of Bradish/Meyer, Busch/Soderstrom & Perdomo too much to give in a possible trade for a rental

12:36

Justin Mason: I believe that flags fly forever and to go for it if you have a shot to win. I would do Bradish and Perdomo for Gunnar. I wouldnt include soderstrom or busch though personally. I do think the addition of the first baseman is too much.

12:37

Justin Mason: Always treat it like a math equation

Is the difference between Henderson and Perdomo, Busch and Bradish? I dont think it is.

12:38

viceroy: Yohendrick pinango, when in the bigs and in the lineup, seems to hit cleanup, leadoff or 2 hole primarily. However he also seems to be the first to go when guys get healthy. Is his defense really that bad and DH that clogged that someone they seem to view as one of their top batters doesn’t crack the lineup anymore? Is he worth holding in a 14 team dynasty that starts 4 OF + 1 until? Based on his statcast data and lineup slot (when penciled in) it seems like he should be a 4 category contributor despite the projections but maybe in the one projecting

12:41

Justin Mason: His defense is pretty bad, but I do feel like they should be giving him as many opportunities against righties as they can while he is hitting. He is terrible versus lefties so he at best is a strong-side platoon bat. The problem is they have to play springer at DH a lot to protect him. If Springer gets hurt, then he could find himself with a boatload of playing time.

12:41

JMKUHNER: Is it time to cut bait on Sheehan or Hancock? No wins and ERA over 6 for Sheehan in last 30. Hancock’s K’s have disappeared. Available replacements, Melton, Jump, Gore, Bibee, Brandon Young

12:42

Justin Mason: Im ok dumping Sheehan for Young or Bibee. I am still holding Hancock for another start or two.

12:42

Salty: Which returning injured pitcher can have a big impact ROS – Woodruff or Flaherty?  Or do you think both of their age/injuries are just too shaky to rely on for the rest of the season.

12:42

Justin Mason: Woodruff. He at least has always been good when on the mound.

12:42

InsertWittyNameHere: Canzone’s savant page is blood red, but so is his hammy.  Sub 20% k rate.  Real or Mirage?

12:44

Justin Mason: I think the strikeouts rise and the average lowers some, but the power metrics seem legit and he rakes versus righties. I lean real here as a strong side powerhouse.

12:44

Peter Larsen: With Lindor likely back who’d you cut between Roccio or E. Duran? 12tm H2H OBP redraft league.

12:44

Justin Mason: Roccio

12:44

Joel Warger: Have to set my lineup for the week today. In your opinion, if Witt is out again tonight is it safe to assume he’ll hit the IL for the rest of the week?

12:44

Justin Mason: I think so

12:44

sactown 2: A lot of the writers say Sheehan is a bounce back candidate-do you see it or is time to stream his spot?

12:45

Justin Mason: I have not been a believer in Sheehan like a lot of others, so I would just stream

12:45

Peter Castro: Hi Justin, what are your expectations for Blaze Jordan this year and beyond?

12:47

Justin Mason: I think there is a good amount of power in the bat and a decent to above average hit tool. The approach hasnt been good in the minors or since his call up which may lead to prolonged slumps at times, but the overall profile should play at the Majors.

12:47

David: braxton garrett is pitching very well in AAA despite his rough mlb outings. marlins rotation lacks depth/health. do you have your eye on garrett in the 2nd half?

12:47

Justin Mason: He is absolutely someone I have on my watch list right now. I think he could be an interesting second half guy.

12:47

Person: is it possible to convince someone, if it’s unsolicited, that you are including someone from your side in a trade because you actually think that player would add value to the other roster, and it’s not just to offload them?

12:48

Justin Mason: I think it is all about how you phrase things. I try to approach trades in a way that is as win-win for everyone as can be. “Hey, you need speed and I need power. Can we make a swap for these players?”

12:49

yochuckie: Got a sit Vladdy this week, for his 6 game homestand? He hasn’t broken his cherry yet in the HR Dept in his crib.

12:49

Justin Mason: I am not sitting him, but I understand if you do.

12:49

bdolven: Was really excited to pick up Dustin May, and then his last outing happened. Would you start him of Troy Melton this week, and how do you feel about him going forward?

12:49

Justin Mason: Ill take May vs the Marlins

12:49

Charles Bengal Tiger: Will Luis Robert Jr. produce anything of value this season?

12:50

Justin Mason: probably not

12:50

Hazmat Corntail: Yesterday was only the second two-hit game Noelvi has had since the recall, most games, you have to hope he does something with the one hit he does get. Statcast suggests he’s been a bit lucky in doing that. Is he any better than he’s been in previous trials or is he the guy I can cut when Rooker returns (whenever that may be)?

12:53

Justin Mason: Marte has been one of the hardest guys in baseball for me to project. His lack of Major League time due to inconsistency and injury makes him difficult to project. He makes a lot of contact (which I love), but a lot of it is on the ground which doesn’t lead to power. There is decent speed there. I dont know that he is much better than he has been in previous chances and that tells me he may be sent back down if he struggles.

12:53

Anon: At what point do you think we’ll start seeing innings-management shenanigans? After the AS Break? I have a bunch of arms that I

12:54

Justin Mason: we usually see them right before the all-star break. I will definitely take a look at this for a future article.

12:54

jt1229: RE: Gunnar offer … other org just offered to add Freeman to the deal, I already have Olson, Busch is my DH … is Perdomo, Bradish & Busch too little now if return is Gunnar and Freeman? I like soderstrom and don’t want to include him & have this thing about being fair in trades, I don’t like runing future relationships by knowingly getting too over on a swap

12:55

Justin Mason: It might be too little but I would at least ask.

12:55

bill furlong: I’m kinda buying into Esteury Ruiz. Howzabout you?

12:55

Justin Mason: not at all. he’s still the same guy that can steal bases and not much else

12:56

Alex Heuer: I find myself with some outfield depth and need pitching in a full dynasty league. People are interested in jasson domniguez. Would you deal him for any of these guys or a combination of: troy melton, noah cameron, connelly early, logan gilbert? I’m excited to see what martian can do with consistent playing time, so I value him highly. I think I’d do a deal for melton and another prospect or two or for gilbert. Wdyt?

12:56

Justin Mason: If I could get Connelly or Gilbert for him, I am doing that.

12:56

ecksstache: Wax Poetic about Jac Caglioanone’s last 30 days in the majors

12:57

Justin Mason: Thirty days, and the ball took flight,
Jac Caglianone lit up the night.
Line drives screaming, homers that soar,
Pitchers learned not to challenge anymore.
A month gone by, yet fans all know—
When Jac gets hot, the fireworks show.

12:57

Justin Mason: thank you Chat GPT

12:58

Justin Mason: Honestly, this is the guy I thought he would be when he got called up. Sometimes it just takes guys some time to adjust especially when they rocket through the minors quickly. Kudos if you held like I did.

12:59

MFG: Don’t the Royals know I have a 1:00pm CDT transaction deadline!?!? Let’s get some Witt news please!!

12:59

Justin Mason: I dont think he is playing

12:59

BurtReynolds: What do you expect the Giants to do at the deadline?

1:00

Justin Mason: sell anything they can. I just dont think they can move the big contracts

1:00

tdmoc: shallow H2H points – looking over available pitchers, should I give up any of Will Warren / Emerson Hancock / Payton Tolle for any of Mackenzie Gore / Connelly Early?

1:01

Justin Mason: I would get Early for Hancock

1:01

Justin Mason: ok, that is my time. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! You can also join the Sleeper and the Bust discord! https://discord.gg/ar7XUV9T





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

1 Comment
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eaboagye1584Member since 2026
2 months ago

Hello bro, can you explain the win probability. The clutch and WPA which is good?