Hitters Pushing Their Luck

At this stage of the season, the impact of luck, or lack thereof, starts to take form and become a meaningful predictor for the rest of the year.

But BABIP can be a noisy stat in isolation. I wanted to identify which hitters were getting lucky when putting balls in play, but also wanted to add a layer that allows us to assess that luck relative to fantasy value and overall offensive production.

The idea for this piece actually came from a curiosity around one specific hitter, which I will come to later, but it is a useful exercise to get a broader sense of the BABIP landscape as we enter the summer months.

So which hitters are potentially providing an unsustainable output, and which could be worth buying low on or holding onto?

This first piece will look at some interesting names with elevated BABIPs and whether their output is sustainable. Part two will turn to the other end of the chart.

To illustrate how to read the chart, Nick Kurtz is a useful reference point. Sitting almost exactly on the diagonal line with a BABIP of .390 and an xwOBA of .399, his current hit rate is broadly in line with what his underlying contact quality deserves. That does not mean a .390 BABIP is sustainable; some regression in his hit rate is certain. But the key distinction is that when it does come down, the underlying production quality will still be there.

His xwOBA tells you the contact is elite, and if you look under the hood, a league-best walk rate and elite HardHit% and Barrel% mean his overall fantasy value extends well beyond what his batting average alone suggests. He has been one of the best fantasy assets so far in 2026. When a player sits on or close to the line, any regression in BABIP is less of a concern because the underlying quality supports continued production. The further above the line a player sits, the more their hit rate is outpacing their expected production, and the sharper the regression is likely to be. The further below, the more their results are lagging what the underlying numbers suggest they deserve. But no two players are made the same, and different mitigating factors could have an important role in explaining the reason for their BABIP luck or lack of it. Kurtz hitting close to a career high average is a useful supporting indicator, but for every player, it is worth digging a little deeper; batted ball stats, sprint speed, and career BABIP norms all provide additional context that the chart alone cannot capture.

Jung-Hoo Lee

So Jung Hoo Lee was the inspiration for this chart. Coming off his scorching hot hitting streak, which started with him rostered in less than half of leagues, I wanted to see if this was in any way sustainable, as I had some outfield injuries to fill in the short term. Just in the few days putting this together, he has jumped from around 45% to now 54% ownership in consensus leagues. My expectation was for him to be in a league of his own in terms of BABIP luck, given his profile. And his BABIP of .365 is certainly unsustainable. But paired with an xwOBA of .338, the gap is not as stark as I anticipated.

He has always had a strong bat-to-ball profile, and since returning from his injury at the end of May, his average has exploded, with an xBA around .500 since coming back, raising his season-long xBA to a league-best .320 xBA. Perhaps most interestingly, his Squared-Up contact rate sits at the 98th percentile this season. For a contact hitter like Lee, consistently making centered contact at that level is a legitimate skill that supports a higher sustained BABIP.

His LA Sweet-Spot% has also jumped from 45% to 86%, further supporting the idea that something might have clicked mechanically, although this is one to monitor as it could fluctuate, and perhaps could be a good metric to track if any signs of regression show, to time any subsequent sell.

Lee is never going to be a power hitter, so all batted ball and power metrics will underwhelm. But for now, despite an unsustainable BABIP, his xwOBA and xBA suggest sharp regression is not likely, and if there are short-term fires to put out in your outfield, you could do a lot worse than riding the hot hand of Jung Hoo Lee.

Riley Greene

With the league’s highest BABIP at .411, Riley Greene is putting up a very interesting season so far in 2026. As a top 25 fantasy outfielder, he is rightly rostered in over 90% of leagues. His xwOBA of .362 is still very respectable despite the large gap between his BABIP and expected production, and a wRC+ of 141 reflects his strong start to the season offensively.

His BABIP has always run above the league average, and he has always paired this with strong offensive numbers. But when you look at the batted ball data, it actually points to a lower BABIP than even his career norm. His ground ball rate is down, his HR/FB ratio has dropped significantly from 22.9% to 12.1%, and his Squared-Up% sits at just the 12th percentile.

Greene’s swing timing data explains why. He is consistently late and under on fastballs, and early and over on breaking balls, producing high exit velocity but non-centered contact. It is why his Hard Hit% sits at the 91st percentile while his Squared-Up% is at the 12th.

To cut a long story short, this rate is not sustainable, and Greene has been one of the luckier hitters in baseball so far this season. What owners can hang their hat on is that his xwOBA and Hard Hit% suggest the numbers will come down, but he won’t fall off a cliff, and his walk rate of 12.5% is the best of his career. He is a strong sell-high candidate if you can find a taker — but he is certainly not a regression bomb waiting to explode.

Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez’s career arc is maybe the epitome of variance. Since joining Miami, he has proven to be one of the unluckier hitters in the league, with his expected metrics consistently outperforming his actual output in both 2024 and 2025. Lopez has finally caught a break and flipped the narrative in 2026. His wOBA has improved by almost 80 points, but his xwOBA by only 12, and this is paired with an increased chase rate from 31% to 36%, and his walk rate has been cut in half to 3.4%. There are quite a few nuances to consider when analysing Lopez’s profile. Firstly, his .393 BABIP highlights that he is now firmly on the lucky end of the spectrum, and we can expect some regression in the summer months.

Every major projection system, Steamer, ZiPS, OOPSY, and others, projects his wOBA coming back toward the expected data at around .330 with an OPS closer to .750 for the rest of the season. His SLG of .486 is outperforming his xSLG of .459, and his AVG at .345 is outperforming his xBA. For the first time since joining Miami, his power and contact numbers are running ahead of expectations. In previous seasons, the power was being suppressed by bad luck.

That said, Lopez’s elite sprint speed is a legitimate mitigating factor. Fast hitters naturally sustain higher BABIPs and his baserunning value of 2.9 in just 70 games confirms how much of a weapon this has proved already this season, paired with his 6.8 speed.

But to Lopez’s credit, there are key improvements in both his power and hit tool from previous seasons, which help explain his turnaround in fortune. His HardHit% has jumped to 46%, and his exit velocity has improved to 90.6 mph. With an xBA of .301 being one of the highest in the league, these are positive developments that support underlying improvement and suggest he should be able to sustain at least some of the increased offensive output.

If you are blessed with some depth at the infield positions, given the number of high-performing rookies we have seen this season, now would be the time to maximize your value. For now, it looks like Lopez has done a great job in making his own luck. But as with Greene, he is a fine hold for the time being, just don’t expect the output to continue at this rate.