Archive for Featured

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Nolan Arenado (+8.29)- I think the safety that Arenado offers has a lot to do with his value and rising ADP. While many expected him to fall off after leaving Colorado, he has proven to be a workhorse that is good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI. I think the average returns back to the .260 area, but that is fine because the floor is so safe. 

Alex Bregman (+7.54)- After a slow start to the season, Bregman was fantastic from August on. He hit .290/.394/.513 with 10 home runs in that time frame, making amazing zone contact and hitting the ball extremely hard to the pull side. He hasn’t put together a full season of great work since 2019, but the ability is clearly still there. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Jose Miranda (+18.5)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Josh Rojas (-11.95)- Rojas’ drop has a lot to do with the perceived risk in playing time. Rojas was losing time in the second half before injuries gave him greater opportunities. The Diamondbacks have been rumored to be in on a number of infielders, but it sounds like they are more interested in a shortstop than a third baseman. Rojas has speed upside and I still think that there is more in the bat overall. However, his defensive issues really holds him back and there is a ton of risk here. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Jung (+10.4)- Jung is going to be a popular player especially if he has a big spring training. Unlike other prospects, I think he has a legit shot at being an everyday player on Opening Day. There is power which was on display when he hit five home runs in 26 games at the Majors. While he showed more swing and miss, he has shown good contact skills previously in the minors. I am very interested in Jung as a guy that has a clear road to a great role in an improving offense. 

Jordan Walker (+22.39)- It is interesting to see Walker rising so fast. The talent is not really in question, but where is he playing? He clearly is blocked by Arenado at third and while he should be able to transition to the outfield, it is not like the Cardinals are devoid of options there either. He has never played at AAA, so I would expect him to start the year there, but he could force himself up pretty quickly if he dominates there like he has everywhere else. 

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (+13.58)- See the article in this series on shortstops.  

Top 300 Players Falling

DJ LeMahieu (-28.84)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-19.5)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Others of Note

Justin Turner (-25.28)- Turner is dropping because he is not signed yet and he had a down year in 2022. However, he actually rebounded late in the season, hitting .340/412/.514 with seven home runs and two stolen bases from July 1 on. I still believe he ends up back in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and if he does, he is a pretty good bet to return value at his cost. 

Patrick Wisdom (-49.07)- Wisdom swings. Wisdom swings hard. Wisdom strikes out. Wisdom hits home runs. That is pretty much the scouting report for Patrick Wisdom. Unfortunately for him, with the Cubs adding players (and they could add more) he is likely a bench bat at this point which hurts his value. That being said, there is cheap power and so there is value in draft champions. 

Brian Anderson (+53.99)- Why is Anderson rising when he doesn’t even have a team after being non-tendered? Sometimes things don’t make sense. Even if he does latch on somewhere, I don’t think he has a lot of value unless he has a full time role. 

12/12/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Sean Murphy/William Contreras trade
• Chris Bassitt to TOR
• Kodai Senga to NYM
• Andrew Heaney to TEX
• Jameson Taillon to CHC

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the transcript from today’s chat!

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

12/11/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @justinmasonfwfb – Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @dbentrek – Guest (Benched with Bubba Podcast and Gaining the Edge)

Read the rest of this entry »

12/9/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Aaron Judge stays in NYY
• Xander Bogaerts to SDP
• Willson Contreras to STL
• Brandon Nimmo stays in NYM
• Josh Bell to CLE

Read the rest of this entry »

• Michael Brantley is just starting baseball drills after his shoulder surgery.

The Astros still are interested in bringing back free-agent Michael Brantley for a fifth season in Houston, but it’s going to depend on his health. Brantley, 35, just started to do baseball drills after undergoing an arthroscopic labral repair on his right shoulder in August.

Brantley is in a ton of rumors but it’ll be tough for a team to sign him without knowing if he’s healthy. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pitch Clock Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Andy Andres

Strategy Section

• Large free agent pitcher signings
• Who has more risk – Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom?
• 185+ IP Pitchers
• Do we need to take an ace starting pitcher in drafts?
• Will streaming be a poor in-season strategy in 2023?

Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for my top-100 hitter ranks. While more is expected to be available on the website (in production), I went through and ranked my top 100 guys… for now. The rankings could change at any time as players get traded or sign with a team, but I feel good about this top group. Besides the actual ranks, I have explained each up and down ranking after the table. Finally, here are the caveats for today’s rankings.

Notes:

• The rankings started with a weighted average of several available projections.
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto this time.
• No catchers were ranked (article coming soon).
• I did not take any position scarcity into account (besides catchers). There hasn’t been any for at least a dozen years, so I don’t expect any this season.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings. Bryce Harper is not ranked without any replacement level.
• For AVG and OBP leagues, I usually drop guys for not hitting enough to be better than the last-place team, but I didn’t with all three systems being ranked.
• I ding highly drafted guys (top-75) who aren’t good hitters (projected OPS under .750). After that point, all the hitters are average or worse.

Notes

• Kyle Tucker: Where in the lineup he bats is going to be huge for his value. I dropped him to fifth in the lineup but if he bats second or third, he could be the overall top bat. Hitting leadoff might drop him down for the lack of RBI.

• Julio Rodriguez: After stealing 21 bases in the first half, he only stole four in the second. Rodriguez put the stop sign on himself.

The club and Rodríguez himself are being more strategic about when to steal. Early in the season, Servais said, it was probably easier for Julio to run because people probably didn’t assume a player of his size was going to run as often as he did. So, effectively, Julio has sort of put the stop sign on himself. This isn’t something the team has mandated or anything like that. Opposing pitchers know he can run, so they’ll pay more attention to him, throw over more and vary their set time on the mound. Doesn’t mean he won’t run more, but he’ll just be smarter/more strategic about it.

I dinged him a bit but if his second-half pace is done for the entire season (projected ~16 SB), it could even be even more of a drop.

• Bo Bichette: I’m not sure the stolen bases are coming back after going 13 for 21 (62%) last season.

• Fernando Tatis Jr.: I dinged him for the unknown screwup. I have zero faith that he has done his rehab and not endangered his shoulder again while riding dirt bikes.

• Mike Trout: I just can’t put over 600 PA on him with 550 PA seeming reasonable. Here are his ranks at the different plate appearance thresholds.

PA: Rank
650: 10
600: 21
550: 28
500: 48

• Michael Harris II: There is a chance he might get platoon after hitting .238/.284/.365 with just 2 of his 19 home runs against lefties.

• Luis Robert Jr.: He has always been hurt and never accumulated over 550 PA (547 PA across three minor league levels in 2019), so I can’t put him over that number this year.

• Eloy Jimenez: I like that Jimenez will have the DH spot all to himself this year to stay healthy thereby staying 100% and in the lineup.

• Adolis Garcia: I never feel good about rostering an early bat projected for a sub-.300 OBP (.284 on Steamer) and a near .700 OPS (.712 on Steamer). I try to roster good baseball players and I’m not 100% sure Garcia is one.

• Oneil Cruz: I don’t know how to rank a guy with just 370 career plate appearances but with a 20/20 projection. I don’t believe the narrative that he improved in September. The team just stopped playing him against lefties who he struggled massively against (53% K% vs LHP) so I dinged his playing time. If a person assumes his projection holds and he gets more playing time, here are his ranks.

PA: Rank
650: 11
600: 24
550: 31
500: 54

If he gets some helium, there are some managers hoping for these extra plate appearances.

• Dansby Swanson: His plate appearances could head south depending on where he hits in his new lineup.

• Gunnar Henderson: His 580 PA seemed light since the Orioles plan on playing time while hitting in the heart of the order. If he hits there, I’d have him up. The issue is that he has never hit lefties in the minors (.956 OPS vs RHP, .697 vs LHP) and in his short MLB time (.872 OPS vs RHP, .448 vs LHP). He was not really platooned by just sitting against three of the eight lefty starters. It’s just something to track.

• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: He has never hit lefties with a career .661 OPS against them (.616 OPS vs LHP in the minors). The deal is that the Marlins were sitting him against lefties. Of the 17 lefty starters the team faced before he went on the IL, he only started in eight of them.R

• Jake McCarthy: I’m not 100% sure he is even an average hitter as seen by his .753 OPS Steamer projection. The 550 PA is a hedge, but here are his rank at different plate appearances

PA: Rank
650: 16
600: 24
550: 39
500: 57

• Cedric Mullins II: Another guy with major platoon issues (career .813 OPS vs RHP, .646 vs LHP). From July 28th on, the Orioles face 15 left-handed starters with Mullins only starting against four of them. I’m not sure if 580 is the right number of PA, but I am dropping him from some near 650 PA projections.

• Taylor Ward: Projections don’t like his playing time (sub 600 PA), so a small boost there. Also, they don’t know about him playing through a shoulder injury.

• Mitch Haniger: I don’t see him with sub-600 PA as a DH.

• Tyler O’Neill: I can’t argue too much with a 530 PA projection but if he ever gets over it he has a nice upside based on more volume.

• Tommy Edman: Not a great hitter (career .732 OPS) especially against righties (career .701 OPS). Sometimes he struggles and then gets buried in the ninth spot. When batting later in the lineup, he doesn’t steal as much with 21 SB in 400 PA while leading off and 2 SB in 112 PA batting ninth.

• Anthony Santander: For a 28-year-old nearing 200 career IL days to be projected for over 650 PA seems high.

• Christian Walker: I dinged him down on the +650 PA projection but his ability to hit 30 HR has him way higher than expected in my rankings.

• Thairo Estrada: He is not a good hitter (.733 OPS Steamer Projection) so he might lose playing time if he struggles.

• Javier Báez: I don’t know how to rank him… at all. Anyone with the potential for 20 HR and 10 SB is going to have decent Roto value. Baez’s projection is similar to Jeremy Peña and Ian Happ’s and I don’t have a problem with their ranks.

• Joey Meneses: I think he’s going to get an everyday chance to play next season, so I moved up the playing time. What I don’t agree with is his 25 to 30 HR projection with a ~.265 AVG. Some fantasy managers are getting a Frank Schwindel vibe while I’m seeing some similarities to Jose Bautista. The right course of action is to be in between.

• Giancarlo Stanton: If he’s healthy and the plate appearances jump, he would leap up to about 50th with just 600 PA.

• Triston Casas: I’m worried that the Red Sox will bring in a decent first-base option or play Hosmer if Casas struggles for a week or two.