Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts! Read the rest of this entry »

1/16/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

3B RANKINGS

• José Ramírez as the 1.1
• Bobby Witt Jr.’s poor plate skills & OBP
• 1st round status of Manny Machado
• Fringe 1st rounders: Rafael Devers or Austin Riley
• The 3B Lifejacket: Nolan Arenado
• Paul thinks Ke’Bryan Hayes has some pwr upside

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1/15/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @justinmasonfwfb – Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @mike_kurland – Guest (Bases Load Pod and Gaining the Edge)

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1/13/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2B RANKINGS

• Marcus Semien’s home/road split
• Jose Altuve as a target
• Justin isn’t sold on Jazz Chisholm Jr.
• The Ozzie Albies discount
• Andrés Giménez’s power
• Thairo Estrada breakout follow-up

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I ranked the top-200 non-catchers and top-50 catchers. Today, I rank hitters from 201 to 300. I don’t feel great about my ranking on the last 75 or so players. Small changes in playing time could push them up or down the rankings.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.

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The 101st episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Matt Mervis, Cubs

Interview

• Arizona Fall League 2022
  • The experience
  • Undervalued players
• The most influenctial person in Matt’s career
• How Matt signed with the Cubs
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• Analytics / tools used to prepare for games
• Is preparation about harnessing stregnths, fixing flaws or exploiting opponents’ weaknesses?
• World Baseball Classic
  • Team Israel
• How will the new MLB rules affect the game (banning the shift, pitch clock, etc.)?
• Goals for the 2023 season
• Undervalued players in the Cubs organization
• Plans until spring training
  • Cubs Con
  • Duke First Pitch Banquet
• Major league players that Matt loved watching growing up

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The 100th episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

Interview

• Highlight of career thus far
• Difference between major leagues, minor leagues and college
• Analytics / tools used to prepare for games
• Is preparation about harnessing stregnths, fixing flaws or exploiting opponents’ weaknesses?
• Goals for the 2023 season
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• How or will Vinnie change his batting approach without the shift?
• Why did left handed hitters not attempt to bunt against the shift?
• How important is it to interact with the fans on social media?
• Who is an undervalued player on the Royals?
• The most influenctial people in Vinnie’s career
• Vinnie’s love of Vinny Testaverde and the Jets
• The toughest pitcher that Vinny has faced in the majors
  • What makes Justin Verlander so good?

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Notes on some select SS:

Trea Turner heads back to the NL East on the heels of his first 100+ R/RBI season – his 3rd of 100+ runs, 1st reaching 100+ RBIs (previous high of 77). There has been some concern around his spike in Chase rate (36% O-Swing; career 29% coming into ’22) and it might have played a role in his power drop as his .169 ISO was well below the .213 he had from 2019-21. It is worth monitoring. I’m more inclined to fade him to allow a transition year after inking the huge deal with Philadelphia as opposed to major concerns about the Chase spike.

Bo Bichette had just two months north of .743 OPS, but one of them was the incredible 1.105 in September with 7 HR which helped him secure the #4 spot at the position despite a 12-SB dip down to 13 with just a 62% success rate. The rule changes could fuel a bounce back into the 20s and if he regains the elite efficiency from 2021 (96%) or something close to it, he might chase down Turner for the top spot, especially if he can lead the American League in hits for a 3rd straight season.

On a per plate appearance basis, Fernando Tatis Jr. is tops. It’s the fact that I tabbed him for 530 PA that pushes him down to 3rd. He has just been so absurd across his 1175 MLB PA that it’s hard to find any flaw beyond the missed time – 21 games for sure due to suspension and the ever-present shoulder risk. If the remainder of the suspension is all he misses, he has a realistic shot at being the top overall player.

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I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
• Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán
• Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani

Brandon Pfaadt (384 ADP)

The 24-year-old Diamondbacks prospect is getting a ton of hype coming into the 2023 season. Baseball American has him ranked as the team’s fourth-best prospect after a season where he posted a 2.63 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 over 61 IP in the high-scoring PCL. In AA last season, his performance was worse with a 4.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9. The jump in the ERA is from a 1.6 HR/9 and .370 BABIP. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
• Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán
• Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani
• Pfaadt, Skubal, Smyly, Muller, & Cavalli

Corey Kluber (438 ADP)

The 36-year-old threw decent last season with a 4.34 ERA (3.85 SIERA), 1.21 WHIP, and a 7.6 K/9. After dealing with injuries for a few seasons, he was able to make 31 starts and get 10 Wins.

He’s lost quite a bit of velocity off his sinker (3% SwStr%, 39% GB%) over the past few seasons but he just threw it 25% of the time this past season.

The sinker is horrible but he’s completely backed off its usage with his cutter being his primary pitch. Now, his three non-fastballs get a decent amount of swing-and-miss.

Pitch: SwStr%, Usage
Cutter: 14%, 34%
Slider: 14%, 27%
Change: 19%, 10%

I just don’t see any upside unless he regains some velocity or completely backs off throwing the sinker. If he can stay healthy, he should be a decent part-time streamer.

Cole Irvin (448 ADP)

I feel like I’m right in the middle of the sub-par volume options. Irvin threw 181 innings of 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP ball with a 6.4 K/9. Even with the low strikeout rate, he had the 75th most strikeouts last season and volumed himself to the 146th best pitcher. Depending on the league’s depth, he was either a bench or waiver wire streamer.

Looking forward, the 28-year-old lefty doesn’t have much upside.

He is already not walking anyone with a 1.8 BB/9 last season and a 2.1 BB/9 during his career. His best pitch is his 91-mph four-seamer with a 12% SwStr% and a 31% GB%. Its results are better than 90% of all fastballs in the game. The swinging-strike rate on all the rest of his pitches is lower than his fastball. His change and slider were both at an 11% SwStr%.

One change he could make is to ditch his sinker (25% usage, 5% SwStr%, 42% GB%) and just go four-seam, change, and slider. If he kept their combined swinging strike rates, he would have similar results as Zack Wheeler (11% SwStr%, 2.0 BB/9) and Julio Urias (11% SwStr%, 2.1 BB/9). I doubt he’ll make such a radical adjustment, so it’ll be another boring year 180 below-average innings.

Germán Márquez (450 ADP)

There is no reason to roster any Rockies pitchers besides closers and that includes Marquez. He posted a 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Those stats are comparable to the two pitchers above. Marquez has the disadvantage of throwing half his starts in Colorado therefore his rate stats get pushed up (4.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) so compared to those going around, he needs to be ignored.

There is probably a point when his road starts against weak opponents come into play, but so three to four starts during the season. Marquez and his supporting cast aren’t good enough to push his value any higher. Looking over the entire NFBC, I would value him sometime after a 650 ADP.

Matthew Boyd (454 ADP)

Boyd missed most of the 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned in September in time to make 10 relief appearances. While he posted a 1.35 ERA (1.61 BABIP) during that stretch, he did so with a 5.4 BB/9 (Zone% down from 53% before the surgery to 47%).

He was throwing his pitches about 0.5 mph harder than before and using them at about the same rate. The one except would be a sinker he threw 15% of the time. The last time he threw a sinker that much was back in 2017.

Overall, it should be a nice groundball pitch with his own 2018 sinker coming in as a comp. Maybe the sinker will help keep the home runs under control (career 1.6 HR) especially with his home fences moving in.

We’re adjusting @ComericaPark’s outfield dimensions and lowering wall heights in key areas prior to Opening Day 2023.

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) January 11, 2023

It’s tough to know what to expect from him next season. The lack of control is concerning, but many pitchers struggle with control when returning from Tommy John surgery. I just don’t see a reason to gamble on a pitcher with a career 4.90 ERA in ~800 IP.