Deep League Starting Pitchers (Pfaadt, Skubal, Smyly, Muller, & Cavalli)

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

Brandon Pfaadt (384 ADP)

The 24-year-old Diamondbacks prospect is getting a ton of hype coming into the 2023 season. Baseball American has him ranked as the team’s fourth-best prospect after a season where he posted a 2.63 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 over 61 IP in the high-scoring PCL. In AA last season, his performance was worse with a 4.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9. The jump in the ERA is from a 1.6 HR/9 and .370 BABIP.

His BABIP should normally be low because of his flyball tendencies (34% GB% in AA, 30% GB% in AAA). Since he can’t keep the ball on the ground, home runs will always be an issue.

According to Baseball America, he throws the following pitches:

  • 93-94 mph four-seam/cut fastball.
  • 80-84 mph slider graded as his best pitch.
  • Change in the works.
  • Rarely used curveball

Additionally, he projects having great control as seen by his combined 2.2 BB/9 while going throw the minors.

As for a chance to make the major league squad, he’s blocked by at least five arms (Kelly, Gallen, Bumgarner, Nelson, and Jameson) and possibly Zach Davies depending on Davies’s role. Personally, I am going to pass on him around pick 384 but I could see the reasoning behind it.

Tarik Skubal (426 ADP)

The 26-year-old lefty had elbow surgery during the season and won’t be ready to contribute by Opening Day. His return timeline is unclear. It’s just tough to know if and when he’ll return so I’m not interested except in leagues with a deep IL bench. In just about 300 career IP, he has a 9.6 K/9, 1.21, WHIP, and 4.15 ERA (3.88 xFIP) so there is talent, but I’m not counting on it until more information is available.

Drew Smyly (435 ADP)

I expect Smyly will go earlier in drafts now that he has signed with the Cubs and people can look into his arsenal. In 106 IP last season, the 33-year-old posted a 3.47 ERA (4.18 xFIP), 1.19 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9. Overall, a decent season.

The pitch classifiers have him moving from a four-seam to a sinker but the pitches have nearly the same shape and the sinker actually got fewer groundballs (34% vs 24%). It’s not a bad pitch (10% SwStr%), it is just not new.

Besides his fastball, he also throws a decent curve (16% SwStr%, 43% GB%) and an OK cutter (7% SwStr%, 56% GB%). Both pitches are fine and give him an OK three-pitch mix.

His biggest issue is his control. He had a 2.5 BB/9 from 2012 to 2016 but it shot up in 2017 and has slowly dropped (4.3 BB/9 to 3.1 to 2.9 to 2.2). Hopefully, the walks stay down.

Smyly isn’t someone who fantasy managers add to their rotations and forget about him. He needs to be managed/streamed for probably half of his starts.

Kyle Muller (438 ADP)

Muller’s 8.03 ERA and 1.70 will scare away many fantasy managers but I think he is someone to take a chance on. The issue is that he walks too many batters. Over 49 career major league innings, he has a 5.1 BB/9 (5.8 BB/9 in 2022).

The reason I’m interested is that he just needs to get the walks under control and he’d be an interesting starter. A big start was the 2.7 BB/9 he posted in 134 AAA innings. Since he just threw 12 major innings, he already might have the walk problem solved.

Second, it looks like his near-9.0 K/9 is legit. He throws a 94 mph fastball. Additionally, his slider (18% SwStr%, 40% GB%) and curve (15% SwStr%, 67% GB%) are average or better offerings. Finally, his change, which he barely threw, has some decent comps.

Recently, he was traded from the Braves to the Athletics. I see his value staying the same. A better home park and opportunity in Oakland. With Atlanta,

He’s an ideal late-round add who can be immediately dropped if the walks are still a problem.

Cade Cavalli (441 ADP)

The 24-year-old righty is similar to Muller in that he’s a high-strikeout pitcher (11.0 K/9 in the minors) with a walk problem (4.5 BB/9 in the minors). Cavalli’s issue is that he missed the last month of the season with shoulder inflammation but expects to be in the rotation to start the season. It is tough to see how he’ll improve his walk rate right away with a bad shoulder.

He threw each of his pitches at least 10 times in his one start and here are each pitch’s comps.

Four-seam

Curve

Change

Slider

Overall, a nice group of pitches with a fastball near a 4.00 pERA and all of his breaking pitches under a 3.00 pERA. With any kind of control, he’s going to be a low-3.00’s ERA pitcher. Spring Training results, fastball velocity and control, will help set his value.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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NL Rulesmember
1 year ago

Great stuff! Thank you