Deep League Starting Pitchers (Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani)

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
• Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán

Ryne Nelson (429 ADP)

There are a lot of possible outcomes for the 24-year-old righty. His results in 18 major league innings seemed great (1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP), but he was buoyed by an unsustainable .156 BABIP. The arrows with him are going in all directions. I’ll start with the negatives.

He gave up a ton of flyballs with a sub-40% GB% in the minors over the past two seasons and 23% GB% in the majors. Depending on the ball and the park, he could allow quite a few homers.

The home runs wouldn’t be such a big deal but he also walks too many batters with a 3.0 BB/9 or higher at all stops. Home runs and walks are never a successful combination.

The only way he has made it to the major is from his strikeout rate. In 2021, it was over 12 K/9 over three levels but it dropped down to 8.5 K/9 in AAA.

He loved throwing his 94.5 mph four-seamer (70% usage) and it generates most of his flyballs. The pitch’s comps are acceptable show that the pitch might get a few more swings-and-misses.

Four-seam Fastball

The only issue with the pitch is that he throws it over two-thirds of the time. Here are the comps on his non-fastballs.

Slider

Change

Curve

That slider and change grade out as average pitches with his curve a step down compared to the other two. Going 50% Fastball and 25% on the slider and change could put him near a 11.5% SwStr% (qualified comps are Darvish and Verlander). The additional non-breakers could give him a strikeout decent base with more groundballs as he tries to limit the free passes. Draft in all formats and wait for improved results.

Spencer Turnbull (429 ADP)

Drafting Turnbull is a complete gamble with him returning from Tommy John surgery and having no rehab information. There are reports of him being ready for the 2023 season, but nothing else. At this point, all a person can do is to just trust the projections (7.9 K/9, 1.30 WHIP, and 3.94 ERA). Drafting him is a complete roll of the dice.

Nick Martinez (430 ADP)

The Padres are expecting Martinez to be in their rotation after splitting time between starting and relieving last season. As a starter, Martinez had a 4.30 ERA (4.36 xFIP), 1.55 WHIP (4.6 BB/9), and 8.1 K/9. As a reliever, he was better with a 2.67 ERA (3.73 xFIP), 1.04 WHIP (2.3 BB/9), and 8.0 K/9. His K%-BB% jumped from 11% to 15% when he moved to the bullpen.

Martinez started the season as a starter and moved to the bullpen as he kept struggling. He was able to gain 0.7 mph on his fastball when going to the bullpen along with a pitch mix change.

His repertoire is a perfect example of someone violating the Yu Darvish rule. He needs to simplify the mix. The change and cutter are near elite and should be thrown about two-thirds of the time.

One interesting note on Martinez. He had almost the exact same season as Kodai Senga did in Japan before coming to the states.

Stat: Martinez, Senga
Season: 2021, 2022
Age: 30, 29
IP: 149, 148
K/9: 8.8, 9.7
BB/9: 2.3, 3.0
HR/9: 0.4, 0.4
ERA: 1.62, 1.89
WHIP: 1.03, 1.04

Senga is going over 200 picks earlier (207 ADP), so I’m not sure which one is improperly valued.

I could see a path for Martinez to improve (fewer walks and pitch types) but it’s going to take a few steps.

Anthony DeSclafani (446 ADP)

The 32-year-old made five starts before going on the IL (ankle surgery) for the rest of the season. Before having the surgery, he was getting hit around with a .441 BABIP and 1.9 HR/9. Part of his struggles could be from a loss of 1.7 mph on his fastball (94.1 mph to 92.4 mph) that started in the 2021 season.

Besides the low of velocity, he moved away from throwing his four-seamer (27% to 11%) and throwing his sinker (19% to 31%) more. The sinker got lit up (vs .543 SLG) and didn’t miss any bats (2% SwStr%).

Just like with Turnbull, DeSclafani is tough to evaluate right now without knowing if he’s healthy and how hard he’s throwing. I will be watching his Spring Training velocity closely. I hate these guys with no information.