Archive for Busts

Hitters Who Underperformed Their Projected Value Within the Top-200 Picks

Sep 14, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

We’re following up on an earlier article about hitters who are outperforming their projected value this season. But there’s also the other side of that coin: 19 hitters among the top 200 picks who are underperforming their projected value by at least $20. Unsurprisingly, the hitters drafted within the top 50 picks who were injured or struggled have been the biggest busts.

The visual below shows hitters who have lost $20 or more this season.

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Every NL Team’s Biggest Fantasy Bust

Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

There’s no such thing as a perfect fantasy draft. Even national contest winners in fields of 3,000 teams will have drafted several busts or players who haven’t earned their value. We can still win our leagues despite making tons of mistakes in our draft. In fact, there will be leagues won by teams that drafted two busts in the first two rounds — the 2026 top 24 has been historically bad. A drafter could have started with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, but could have a monster lead on second place if they drafted Dillon Dingler, Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, and FAAB’d Jacob Latz, Parker Messick, Liam Hicks, and Kody Clemens.

Last week, I discussed Raleigh and the biggest busts on every AL team. You’ll note that some of my selections were players with a 200+ ADP. I didn’t want to force early-round busts just for the sake of it, especially for teams whose highest-draft-capital players were within a reasonable range of returning their fantasy value. That will be the case again for the NL group. An example for this week is Trea Turner. Though he ranks 91st on the 12-team Fantasy Player Rater and is not returning full value on his ADP of 27, Turner has been healthy all season, earning nearly $12 to date. He has scored 90 runs with 17 HR and 18 SB, and I would not consider him to be a bust.

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Every AL Team’s Biggest Fantasy Bust

Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

There is no such thing as the perfect fantasy draft. Even national contest winners in fields of 3,000 teams will have drafted several busts or players who haven’t earned their value. We can still win our leagues despite making numerous mistakes in the draft. In fact, leagues will be won this year by teams who may have even drafted two busts in the first two rounds — the 2026 top 24 has been historically bad. A drafter could have started with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, but could have a monster lead on second place if they drafted Dillon Dingler, Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler and FAAB’d Jacob Latz, Parker Messick, Liam Hicks and Kody Clemens.

Though in-season free-agent pickups will not always save us, take a look at my worst of four NFBC Online Championship (OC) drafts, a 12-team national contest:

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Kyle Tucker Must Cry

Fantasy baseball is hard. Veteran fantasy managers and analysts are usually quite spunky and confident before the season starts. We spend hours upon hours over several months researching players, keeping up with depth charts, player news, and draft boards, focusing on a variety of different elements from projections, roster construction and game theory. We have good fantasy seasons and bad ones, but no matter how well or poor we do, we are always humbled and reminded that this environment is pure chaos, which we immediately feel every Opening Day. Just ask the person in your league who spent their first-round pick on Paul Skenes.

After all, these are human beings playing the game, not robots. Sure, they are professional athletes who receive incomes many of us will never a sniff a sliver of, and their physical abilities are superhuman, but they are people, nevertheless. They go through constant patterns of performance fluctuation, suffer injuries, tolerate physical pain, rehab, sometimes have setbacks, and continue to encounter further performance fluctuations. Some, or perhaps most, endure personal issues and trauma that impact their on-field output that we never hear about. They are publicly questioned, and constantly judged, scrutinized, and lambasted. Some receive death threats via DM because they were one hit short of someone hitting their parlay. These players are people with feelings and emotions, just like you and I. We often have difficulty figuring out what’s going on in our own head. What makes us think we can do so in someone else’s?

There once was a probably quiet boy named Kyle who really loved to play baseball. He grew up around the turn of the century, playing it probably every day, in his hometown of Tampa, Florida. He continued to excel at the game and was professionally scouted and nationally renowned. In 2015, the year that the boy legally become an adult and was a high school senior, he batted .484, was named Baseball America High School Player of the Year and was drafted fifth overall by the Houston Astros. As you may already know, this Kyle is Tucker and he is a four-time MLB All-Star and a World Series champion. Over the last two seasons, he has dealt with serious injuries. Now the baseball world is watching Kyle struggle in real time, and we all have something to say about it. I mean, he’s taking home $55M this year and he “doesn’t even care!” This season, he is batting .189 with just two home runs in 60 games at Dodger Stadium. He was hitless over a seven-game stretch until Tuesday. During a telecast on Monday, Dodgers broadcaster Eric Karros suggested that Tucker should have a “reset” and be demoted to Triple-A. It all came to a head on social media when he dropped a routine fly ball on Monday night. Dodger fans booed him for it.

Droves of folks on social media have been mocking him and laughing at him — baseball fans, Dodger haters, which seems to be most baseball fans these days, and fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or second, alike — grown adults who suggest he can just wipe his tears away with his money. Not that it really matters, but it obviously doesn’t look like Tucker is crying here. And if he was, would that then nullify the unfounded preseason hubbub about him not caring about baseball because if you’re showing emotion that means you actually care? It makes no difference because social media is an unfiltered and unaccountable cesspool of opinions and arguments that can be framed in any which way. There is no winning there, only time wasted scrolling afternoons away, reading drivel.

None of us know Kyle personally. We don’t know why he is struggling at the plate, but whatever it is, it goes beyond the baseball field. We make it our business because he’s in the public eye and we have forums to do so — because he’s not the same productive hitter he once was; because he makes a wild amount of money, most of it deferred through a loophole; because he’s on a team now known as the new Evil Empire. I’m not defending him simply because he’s a Dodger, but because he’s a human being. I doubt you’ve read about an eyewitness account of him being a bad or nasty person. He catches flak because of his reserved personality, which comes across as apathetic. Coupled that with his disaster season, and he becomes an easy target for criticism. Kyle has gone through lows, but this sure feels like his career rock-bottom. Three years ago, he was Pete Crow-Armstrong without the panache and the sprint speed. I may not be a fan of PCA’s persona, but I can’t not like him personally because I don’t know him. He’s quite obviously a gamer, and Cubs fans should be proud. As a fantasy analyst and high-stakes player, it’s imperative that personal feelings aren’t part of my analytical equations. I don’t have the energy to debate folks on social media who I’ve never met about whether Pete or Shohei Ohtani are more deserving of the NL MVP, five weeks before the regular season ends. If PCA wins the award in November, it’s because of how the BBWAA writers voted and he probably will deserve it. If I was a voter, I’d like to think that I would be fair and impartial, voting based on my interpretation of what MVP meant and the actual results; not using the privilege to tip the scales toward Ohtani’s legacy and him being one step closer to Barry Bonds’ seven MVP awards.

Back to Kyle Tucker, I was confident that he would have a strong first season with the Dodgers, so much so, that I put my money where my mouth was by heavily targeting and drafting him. Looking back, I did not do so objectively. You may say my Dodger blinders were on, but I obviously wasn’t the only one, and there was a lot to like. As a generally optimistic person, I chose to focus on the positive aspects of his new scenario: that he always produced at a first-round fantasy level when healthy, that he was healthy now, and that he would adjust well and thrive in a winning and committed organization, uplifted by a seasoned manager like Dave Roberts and a cast of veterans like Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and others he could drive in to score with a double in his sleep. My positive bias brushed aside the downside of his recent health history and the possibility that he could crumble under the pressure of his massive contract in a new environment. If you recall, there was the offseason narrative that Tucker could just blend in and stay out of the spotlight under the shelter of the team’s countless other stars. On the surface, this logic is palatable, but it’s a good reminder why very few skills are more important in life than critical thinking. I could have spent less than a minute deconstructing that logic by reminding myself of his Pressure+ rating of 245 based on being a detested Dodger, with the heftiest AAV in history, and that staying out of the spotlight and away from criticism in this day and age was downright improbable. Oh, and hadn’t he played several seasons along bigger stars like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa?

I do strongly believe that the comparisons to Anthony Rendon are unfair and is low-hanging fruit for engagement farmers on social media. Tucker and Rendon both signed massive deals and haven’t produced on the field since signing, but that is where the comparison should end. Anthony has been vocal about the fact that baseball “has never been a top priority” and that there are too many games in a season. I can respect his “faith and family first” stance, but he avalanched our collective uproar over several years by becoming the poster boy of unproductive mega-contracts in sports. His April 2023 altercation with an Oakland A’s fan didn’t help his reputation, nor did a 2014 interview with The Washington Post where he said that he preferred watching The History Channel to baseball because the game is “too long and boring”. He is on the final year of his $245M contract, is on the 60-day (660-day?) injured list following hip surgery, won’t play again this season and will very likely retire soon. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker may not be the most vivacious or charming player, but those things aren’t part of the job description. He may appear dispassionate to fans, but those who have played with him compliment his low-key temperament. Here’s what Pete Alonso had to say about his old high school teammate’s mellow vibe in a March 2025 article on ESPN:

[Alonso] likens his personality to his game. Steady and consistent, from his prep days into his major league career.

“Honestly, he’s the same guy,” Alonso said after a recent spring training game. “He hasn’t changed a bit. I mean, he keeps the game simple. He’s just got this even-keel emotion about him both on and off the field.”

[Kyle] Tucker is aware of his reputation but says he does speak up when he needs to — even if he prefers to let his game do the talking.

“I feel like people think I’m pretty quiet and reserved, which I guess I am, but people probably think I’m more [reserved] than I actually am,” Tucker said recently. “I’m decently outgoing.”

Decently outgoing like Scott Evil’s dad.

Kyle Tucker turns 30 in January and his baseball story is far from over. Redraft managers who started drafts with with Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the 1-2 turn probably aren’t competing for league titles. Some of those folks will be gun-shy when ranking Kyle (and Vladdy) next March, even at their new, lower ADPs. Dynasty and keeper league managers feel like they’ve taken a massive “L” and may have already sold him for pennies on the dollar. For those holding on, it would be wise to review comparable deals if any arise. Those would likely be buy-low offers that should be politely declined. The best move for Tucker holders in dynasty or keeper leagues is just that…hold on.

If he is optioned and spends two weeks in Triple-A to get him back on the success track he is used to, then, so be it. This management team knows what they are doing. Kyle still has the rest of this month, all of September, and the playoffs, to figure it out and get back to confidently hitting like Kyle. If he’s Kyle Tucker, Playoff Hero this fall, he still won’t be a redraft second-rounder next season, but at least we’ll know that he found what he was looking for. I root for Kyle to break out of this season-long funk as I have been for Austin Riley during his monthslong rough patch, and for Austin Meadows many years ago, albeit different circumstances, for which I still wish him the best. Kyle and Austin are Major League ballplayers, but before that they were, and still are, people. Regardless of how much money they make, if they’re on our fantasy teams, or if they prefer to not exuberantly bat-flip in for longball celebrations, we should still be rooting for them. Fantasy baseball is hard, but playing 150+ grueling contests over a six-to-seven month stretch against the best of the best and producing at a consistent and high level against your talented and sometimes superhuman peers, is much, much harder.

So go ahead, Kyle. Have a good cry if you need to, take the reset with humility if it’s mandated, utilize their top sports psychologist if you haven’t already, or maybe try a custom “darkness retreat” to help refocus your mind and quell your soul. Try it all. Whatever it takes. I look forward to seeing you back at the top of your game soon, sans the 20+ SBs seasons, whether or not you’re on my fantasy team or the real-life baseball team I grew up watching since 1988.


It’s Hip To Be Squared

Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

If you want to get a hit, trying to square up the ball is a great place to start. But not all squared up hits are created equal. Squaring up your grounders and line drives will likely help your batting average, but won’t do much in the home run department. Squaring up your flyballs, especially at the ideal launch angle, should help get the ball out of the yard.

If you look at the surface level Savant lollipops, you will see a “Squared-Up%” metric, which is represented on FanGraphs by “SqUpCon%”. This describes a batted ball event where at least 80% of the possible exit velocity on a pitch was obtained, given the swing and pitch characteristics, which typically means a ball that was hit on the sweet spot of the bat, according to Statcast.

As explored by Fangraphs’ Davy Andrews, even before we look at the launch angle of a squared up ball, we should acknowledge that not all of these swings result in a ball that’s hit even remotely hard, because a ridiculously slow swing that hits the ball on the barrel can still technically be squared up by the Statcast definition. But for the most part, hitters are swinging relatively hard. And we have ways to see just how fast they swing and how often they unleash their fast swings now, thanks again to Statcast. 

With all of this in mind, check out the Fangraphs Squared-Up Explorer. This tool helps you see how often a hitter is squaring up the ball at different launch angles, highlighting the ideal launch angle for home runs and visualizing a given hitter’s profile compared to league average. 

Using this tool, you can compare a given hitter’s profile against other hitters and during different periods of time. You can compare Gunnar Henderson’s hot start in 2024 to his 2025 and to his start to this season, as I did last week. 

Today, I’ll run through a few examples that demonstrate the possible ways to use the Squared-Up Explorer and try to show you that you can and should use this tool yourself as a starting point for analyzing hitters, whether it be struggling bats you may want to cut or hot streak hitters you’re looking for an excuse to believe in. For the hitters I look into, I’ll provide some recommendations, but really want to invite you to use this exceptionally user-friendly tool yourself. 

Let’s start with a particularly frustrating hitter, Fernando Tatis Jr. 

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Help, I Think Pull Air Rate Broke My Shortstop

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Before I get into analyzing what I think may be a relatively broken hitter, I have something to admit. This admission may sound familiar to you. Especially if you are at all impulsive. Or love to trade.

A few weeks back, after trading Corey Seager for Dylan Cease in what felt like an absolute coup, I got a bit ahead of my skis. Without looking at a single Fangraphs or Baseball Savant page, I fired an offer into the ether. I dealt away Michael King, Cade Cavalli, and Bo Bichette for Gunnar Henderson, in what felt like a classic buy low-sell high, where Henderson represented the low and King the high. 

The point of this article is not to discuss King’s less than rosy peripherals. Nor is it to shame me for dealing Bichette before he seemingly started heating up. It is, at least in part, a cautionary tale, though I’d say it’s a hopeful one.

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2024 Fantasy Busts – Sporer’s Picks

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

I’m stealing Jeff’s intro for these Busts because it gets the message across clearly and frankly, many of y’all won’t even read this:

I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.

Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.

For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth. 

Check out Jeff’s picks here!


Changelog

  • 3/21/2024: ADP & Dollar Value updates — I’m still not in on any of this group
  • 2/14/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Busts in the Top 50 ADP

Busts in the Top 50 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Elly De La Cruz CIN 3B/SS – 26 $15
2 CJ Abrams WAS SS – 39 $12
3 Tyler Glasnow LAD SP – 41 $20

While it might be a little on the nose, it’d be more surprising to not include Elly De La Cruz on a “Bust” list at his insane ADP. I understand the general excitement after the 22-year-old delivered 13 HR/35 SB in just 98 games, but it came with just an 84 wRC+ as the league caught up to him quickly, holding him to a meager .192/.271/.353 line in his final 69 games (not nice). Sure, there’s a world where he makes a sharp adjustment and those dreaming on an extrapolation of those sexy HR/SB numbers strike it rich, but as a Top 25 pick, he almost has to do that to avoid being a big miss. I’d much rather just wait 60 or so picks for Oneil Cruz.

This one is in line with the De La Cruz situation where I understand the desire to invest in the upside, but at this price there is a substantial burden on CJ Abrams to perform and I’m just not sure we can bank on much beyond the SBs. Even during his summer surge when he swiped 38 SBs in 78 games, it came with just a .752 OPS. He hit 11 HRs in that time, too, and 18 in all so I don’t want to suggest he has an empty bat, but I just don’t think he has established the kind of floor I’d like for a Top 50 pick. Both Abrams and De La Cruz should steal enough to not be completely worthless if their bats lag, but I generally like at least some semblance of a plus bat in my Top 50 picks (Abrams 90 wRC+, EDLC 84).

I ranked Tyler Glasnow 12th in my SP rankings so I’m splitting some hairs here as I could see myself taking him somehwere in the 70s or later. I’m just incredibly nervous about making him my ace with a Top 40 pick given that last year’s 120 IP were a career-high. I also worry that his price will only rise if he looks good in Spring Training. I have to admit that I am more open to taking this kind of risk on pitching so this is a softer fade than EDLC and Abrams.

Busts from 51 to 100 ADP

Busts from 51 to 100 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
4 Nolan Jones COL OF – 56 $16
5 Joe Ryan MIN SP – 85 $15

Is it lazy to just say “.401 BABIP!” and move on with Nolan Jones? Yes, yes it is. And it’s certainly not just the unsustainable BABIP that has me pushing away from Jones at his elevated price. He is a big strikeout guy which always gives me some pause with a player who is supposed to give me an AVG boost. In fairness, his Ks aren’t built off of flailing at the dish (his 12% SwStr isn’t much worse than the 11% league avg.), but moreso because he runs deep counts waiting for his pitch, happily taking a walk if it doesn’t come but also striking out a ton in the process. His 4.29 pitches per PA would’ve been 5th highest had he qualified, in company with other high-K guys like Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, and teammate Ryan McMahon (Ha-Seong Kim is an interesting outlier as the only guy in that group with just a 20% K rate).

Perhaps the craziest part of Jones’s season was the road work: .935 OPS aided by a .434 BABIP. That’s wild for anyone, but especially bonkers for a Colorado Rockie. I worry that many are dreaming on what his 20/20 production from 106 games will look like for a full season in Coors. I see something like mid-to-high 20s in each category with .250s-type AVG which cuts a Randy Arozarena kind of figure but I’m not sure he can get to the 95 R/83 RBI that Arozarena had as the Rockies haven’t had a 90-R scorer since 2019. I can’t lie, I’m torn on Jones because I like him as a player, but push-come-to-shove I’m inclined to get a cheaper power-speed guy instead of paying a Top 60 pick for Jonesy given his lack of track record. It’s a No-Go for No-Jo in this dojo.

This is always one of my least favorite things in fantasy baseball: having to move off a one-time favorite when their price gets too high. Joe Ryan’s HR issue is growing as his ADP rises. His 1.8 HR9 was 4th-highest last year (min. 160 IP), resulting in a 4.51 ERA. Even his 1.2 mark from 2021-22 would slot 15th and I just worry that his strong K-BB rate won’t be able to counter the HRs and return a Top 100 value. Don’t get me wrong, Ryan does bring a great K rate and strong WHIP to the table but why not just take teammate Bailey Ober 60+ picks later? He has the same profile and just as much upside as far as I’m concerned.

Busts from 101 to 150 ADP

Busts from 101 to 150 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
6 Zack Gelof OAK 2B – 133 $3
7 Esteury Ruiz OAK OF – 127 $6
8 Cedric Mullins BAL OF – 150 $9

It feels kind of mean to kick Oakland when they’re down, but my next two entries are among the limited bright spots on their team. I think “The Extrapolators” (the people who take a small sample and just extrapolate it out to 600 PA) are playing with fire in thinking Zack Gelof can approach a 30/30 season after his blistering debut (14 HR/SB in 300 PA). I lean way closer to the projections that have him more in the 20/20 range with a sub-.240 AVG and that might not even be a Top 150 hitter, let alone overall. Be careful.

If you’ve been following my work for a while, you know I’m just not a fan of the Rabbit player type aka the SB-only profile. Esteury Ruiz panned out as well as you could hope with an AL-best 67 SBs and landed as a Top 140 player according to the Auction Calculator, but I’m honestly more concerned about what he does to a team build than whether or not he will return enough “value” on his ADP. He is a 4-category negative that and I just don’t know that the SBs are worth it unless you really bolster the rest of your offense to take on Ruiz’s negatives. At that point, I’d rather just take Jorge Mateo at a post-500 ADP.

Y’all, do NOT send this to Justin Mason! It will irreparably damage our relationship, but I’m just not in on Cedric Mullins. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t some kind of worthless scrub but there are just so many more OF I prefer in his general range. My biggest concern is that if he continues to be a league average-ish bat (99 wRC+), he could start to lose playing time given the seemingly unlimited number of options that Orioles are churning out of their system these days. Mullins is someone who needs volume to sustain his value, especially if he doesn’t turn the tide on his shrinking AVG and BABIP. Justin, if you’re reading this, don’t worry I’m pivoting to another one of your favorites over Mullins as I’d rather just take TJ Friedl at the same ADP.

Busts from 151 to 200 ADP

Busts from 151 to 200 ADP
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
9 Jarren Duran BOS OF – 151 $3
10 José Alvarado PHI RP – 159 $9

How is the less proven Ced Mullins just a round cheaper? Jarren Duran is coming off a strong 120 wRC+ with 8 HR and 24 SB in 362 PA which clearly has many excited given his ADP, but I can’t do it. This is another one where I’m worried “The Extrapolators” are pushing the ADP up. I buy the speed, but I’m tepid on his pop and his poor plate skills put a heavy burden on his BABIP to drive the AVG (a .381 BABIP fueled the .295 AVG). Give me any of Chas McCormick, Riley Greene, Brandon Nimmo, James Outman, Lars Nootbaar, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward, and even Duran’s new teammate Tyler O’Neill over him at similar to cheaper price tags. They don’t all bring the speed he does, but it could be some pretty empty SBs if his BABIP isn’t strong.

This is admittedly less about being out on José Alvarado and more about loving Jeff Hoffman. The departure of Craig Kimbrel opens the door for more SVs, but Alvarado had just 10 last year and while he isn’t terribly expensive, he is going nearly 300 picks earlier than Hoffman. Hell, even Seranthony Domínguez could be in the mix for Philly SVs and he’s going nearly 500 picks after Alvarado! I don’t mind dipping into the Philly bullpen as they will likely spread their SVs out, I’m just not paying a Top 200 pick for any of their guys.


Full Rankings Without Tiers

No tiers. Just the rankings.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Elly De La Cruz CIN 3B/SS – 26 $15
2 CJ Abrams WAS SS – 39 $12
3 Tyler Glasnow LAD SP – 41 $20
4 Nolan Jones COL OF – 56 $16
5 Joe Ryan MIN SP – 85 $15
6 Zack Gelof OAK 2B – 133 $3
7 Esteury Ruiz OAK OF – 127 $6
8 Cedric Mullins BAL OF – 151 $9
9 Jarren Duran BOS OF – 151 $3
10 José Alvarado PHI RP – 159 $9

2024 Fantasy Busts – Zimmerman’s Picks

Zach Dalin-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.

Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.

For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth. 


Changelog

  • 2/14/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Read the rest of this entry »


2022 Biggest Hitter Busts

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

For this I used the Auction Calculator which includes the ADP pulled from the NFBC and focused on the guys who weren’t complete injury washouts. Adalberto Mondesi was indeed a bust, but he managed just 54 PA so you had a replacement all year. Injuries certainly play a role in bust seasons, whether it’s something that costs a player time or a nagging injury that compromises their play but doesn’t take them off the field. I used a 300 PA cutoff here which is admittedly arbitrary and does include guys who hit the IL, but figured it gave us a better group of guys whose bust status is more performance-based.

Wander Franco | 58.9 ADP 

-$2 in 344 PA – .277 AVG, 6 HR, 8 SB, 33 RBI, 46 R

Among the hitters drafted in the top 100, Franco was the only negative value who eclipsed 300 PA. He did have a pair of IL stints that essentially cut his season in half, but the production while on the field didn’t really match his draft price. The 22-year-old shortstop still has incredible upside, and the market definitely won’t run away from him based on this season. He went 89th in the one draft I’ve done so far and I expect him to slowly rise up the board over the winter and wind up around the Top 75 come draft season in March.

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Are 2021’s Busts This Season’s Rebounds?

Yesterday, I discussed six 2021 fantasy breakouts and concluded with a verdict as to whether I believed each was for real or would be a 2022 bust. Today, let’s discuss the 2021 busts. Will they rebound or continue down the path of bustiness?

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